"Well, I must confess I cannot answer that question in advance. The only thing I know about war are two things: The most unpredictable factor in war is human nature in its day-by-day manifestation, but the only unchanging factor in war is human nature. And the next thing is that every war is going to astonish you in the way it occurred, and the way it is carried out. So that for a man to predict . . . what he is going to use and how he is going to do it would, I think, exhibit his ignorance of war. That is what I believe. So I think you just have to wait, and that is the kind of prayerful decision that may some day face a president."
--President Eisenhower, after being asked about war with Red China, nuclear weapons, and Taiwan
The current president of the United States, unlike all his predecessors since, oh, about 1949, keeps talking specifics when it comes to Taiwan. His people, we assume, wish he wouldn't do that. We assume such a thing because his people keep flailing around behind the scenes to walk back his comments every time he answers a question about Taiwan too directly. Normally, folks like a president to talk straight with them. But when talking to our enemies, through the international press, sometimes it's better to follow the long tradition of strategic ambiguity. Which is called for in the case of the Red Chinese and Taiwan. But this president can't seem to help himself. And talks, and talks, and talks.
And then the mainland Chinese have a hissy. And threaten. And things heat up. Until the next time that Joe Biden wants to hear the sound of his own voice. When it comes to Taiwan, United States presidents should never lose an opportunity to be vague. Absent the ability to do that, then to shut up.
After the president's too-specific comments about defending Taiwan this past week, right on cue The Party in Beijing had its hissy.
"No one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and formidable ability of the Chinese people," said Red China's spokesman for its Defense Ministry.
We won't. Americans won't. American leadership won't.
But, Mr. Spokesman, who are you talking about? Whom shouldn't we underestimate?
The Chinese people? There are two Chinese peoples.
The free Chinese live in Taiwan. The un-free Chinese live under the watchful eye of the mainland government. And it's been that way since the Luces--Henry and Clare Boothe--were using their media empire to blame somebody, anybody, for losing the mainland.
That mainland government currently calls itself the People's Republic of China. But that's a lie, three times over. The government certainly isn't a republic. It doesn't belong to the people. And it doesn't include all Chinese. Which is why in the American papers we have to signify which Chinese we're talking about with phrases like "Red China," "mainland China," and "free Chinese on Taiwan."
The communist Chinese keep wanting to expand the franchise. So they take Hong Kong. They build man-made islands in the Pacific to push their territorial waters outward. And they'd like to get Taiwan, too. Which is why the blue-water U.S. Navy has to mosey through the Taiwan Strait every now and then. Just for a visit. The Navy knows what its president doesn't: No need to give advance notice of intentions. No need to draw any lines in the sand. Or the water.
If there are two Chinese peoples, is there still one China? Why, yes. The ChiComs, the Taiwanese and the Americans all agree on that. But which is the one China? The one governed by Beijing or Taipei? The right answer is: Yes. And isn't the weather nice today? If you're keeping score, give everyone involved an incomplete on this test. And move on to the next test as if nothing happened. Better to be unclear and peaceful than clear and shooting at each other.
Imagine, if you will, the translators in Beijing during the Eisenhower administration, trying to work through the fog of English that Ike was expert in dealing to the table. His example in this case, like most examples given by Dwight D. Eisenhower, is one to follow. A quiet Taiwan Strait is good for the world.
cc: The White House