The premature release of a U.S. Supreme Court draft opinion that signals Roe vs. Wade will be overturned is reinvigorating women voters, stirring political passions in ways that now make November's midterm elections less predictable.
The nation's high court is apparently on the verge of reversing the 49-year-old precedent, ending the guarantee of abortion rights in this country.
The nation learned of the court's leaning Monday when the draft majority opinion was leaked to Politico.
The court heard arguments in December in a case challenging a Mississippi law that bans most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
It was fairly obvious then that a majority of the justices was inclined to uphold the Mississippi law. That decision had been expected later this summer, but this draft went beyond predictions, prompting the strong reactions that have followed its release.
Politico described the draft as "a full-throated, unflinching repudiation" of the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion.
The draft presumably reflects a five-member majority's initial votes to overturn not only Roe but also the mostly affirming 1992 Planned Parenthood v. Casey ruling.
"Roe was egregiously wrong from the start," Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the majority draft. "Its reasoning was exceptionally weak, and the decision has had damaging consequences...
"And far from bringing about a national settlement of the abortion issue, Roe and Casey have enflamed debate and deepened division."
Both must be overruled, he wrote.
"It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people's elected representatives."
Alito was joined in the vote by four of the other Republican-appointed justices: Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.
The three Democratic-appointed justices -- Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan -- are reportedly working on one or more dissents.
The report didn't say how Chief Justice John Roberts, the other Republican-appointed justice, will vote.
Actually, any of them can change his or her vote before the opinion is finalized. They can also propose different arguments for or against the majority's draft.
So, nothing is settled yet. A woman's rights are intact for now. The change will come when the opinion is issued and it will be immediate.
Numerous states, including Arkansas, have "trigger" laws in place that will be effective as soon as the court enables states to decide abortion issues.
Such laws severely limit or ban abortion. Some include no exception for rape or incest.
Each state would be free to regulate or prohibit abortion as it chooses, Alito wrote, noting that the Constitution makes no mention of what he called an "invented" right to abortion.
According to Politico, Alito's first draft of the opinion was circulated among justices on Feb. 10.
Politico is satisfied that the document is authentic, although the leak of the 98-page draft was unprecedented.
Expect that breach to be investigated immediately with an eye to finding the source of the leak and the reason for it.
Already, there is considerable speculation, including alternative suggestions that the move may have been intended to pressure justices to change their minds or to lock them into their initial votes.
Protests against the draft began immediately, as did celebrations for the decision, assuming it is what ultimately happens.
Remember that "enflamed debate and deepened division" over abortion that Justice Alito wrote about? It will only intensify.
What seems most obvious from the early reactions is that the issue may become a major factor in the midterm elections.
Republicans' perceived edge going into this year's U.S. House and Senate elections may be met by more determined opposition.
Republicans may or may not regain control of the Congress.
Women's rights, particularly reproductive rights, will flush female voters out all over this country. They'll come from both sides of this divisive debate and they'll come with renewed vigor.
All these voters will be fully aware that Republican lawmakers, if they get those congressional majorities, will try to enact a nationwide abortion ban.
On the other hand, Democrats have already passed legislation in the U.S. House to codify the reproductive rights that Roe v. Wade had secured for the past 50 years. They're looking for enough Senate votes to put what have been constitutional protections into law. Either that or this might be the issue that causes the Senate to abandon the filibuster's 60-vote threshold to advance legislation.
The political impact doesn't end in D.C. In every state, governors and legislatures have been proposing and passing state laws that favor one side or the other of this issue. More will do so, or resurrect old laws that were invalidated by Roe v. Wade.
Clearly, women's rights and abortion are on the ballot this year. Thanks to the premature release of this draft opinion, that impact will be felt starting now, well before the opinion is finalized.