Seldom has American society begun a new year amidst such chaos and uncertainty, including the government shutdown.
True, the U.S. government and political system have faced major challenges at earlier points in our history -- war, economic depression and natural disasters.
But, in many respects, the national agenda we face in 2019 is unprecedented -- from tariffs and trade wars to stock market turmoil; from "border security" and "the wall" to congressional and FBI investigations; from international intrigue on the Internet to the Iran nuclear deal. Erratic and contradictory statements and actions abound. When presidents lose some of their leverage in setting government direction -- as is the current case with Donald Trump's Republicans no longer having the majority in the House -- there is a tendency to focus on foreign policy, where the commander-in-chief can have more ability to navigate and to dominate news coverage.
The surprise quick visit to Iraq a few days ago -- at a time of major media focus on the government shutdown and the financial frenzy -- demonstrated how a president can command media coverage. Trump has proven he is a masterful, serial subject changer. It is likely we'll see more subject-changing events like the Iraq trip in the coming days.
Renewed attention to North Korea is also likely, reminding us of the flurry of publicity earlier last year when Trump and Kim Jong-un had their summit in Singapore.
And, of course, China is due to receive considerable attention, with much riding on Trump's highly touted trade war. There is currently a "truce," with 60 days to go. U.S. tariffs of 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese goods are then scheduled to kick in. Meanwhile, it isn't even clear what the two sides will be negotiating. Will the U.S. raise nettlesome geopolitical issues such as the South China Sea controversy or human rights?
Issues on the table include cybersecurity, technology transfers and China's intellectual property theft. China's position on some of these issues remains to be seen. Uncertainty will abound as long as these questions remain unanswered.
The uncertainty surrounding the trade war and related issues was undoubtedly a factor in the stock market gyrations. Markets don't like instability.
Unpredictability is the hallmark of the current administration and that certainly contributes to not only the instability in financial markets but foreign relations generally with impulsiveness overriding a coherent strategy. Consider that we have ceded elements of our international role to Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey, with Russia's Putin praising the planned abandonment of the U.S. role in Syria and boasting of a Russian hypersonic intercontinental ballistic missile.
This is not an election year, but, more than ever, we view just about everything through a political lens. The era of the permanent campaign has become entrenched. As many as two dozen Democrats have been mentioned or are considering a presidential run, which means some serious competition long before the 2020 balloting. Barnstorming is already underway among Democratic hopefuls,
And Trump delights in taking his show on the road where he finds receptive audiences for his portrayal of himself and his followers as aggrieved by his opponents, by other countries, by global economic forces, and, of course, by the media.
Early polling is relatively meaningless, mostly an indicator of name recognition. Thus, recent Democratic polls show Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Beto O'Rourke as leading candidates. Perhaps one of them will eventually claim the top spot -- or it could be someone currently in the shadows.
We only need to look back at what happened with Republicans in 2015-16. Polls conducted as late as May 2015 showed Trump far back in the pack and that was the case well into the campaign. Remember Ben Carson? Or the hapless Jeb Bush, easy prey for Trump despite his sterling pedigree?
Will Trump face any serious competition within his own party? At the moment it seems highly unlikely that we'll see any such hat-tossing. Surveys indicate Republicans continue to be overwhelmingly supportive of the president -- nearly 90 percent, according to Gallup. Prominent Republicans have steered clear of any criticism of Trump. However, polls also indicate that most Americans don't favor many of the policies and doses of dogma coming from White House tweets. That was the conclusion widely drawn from the results of the recent midterm elections
Robert Mueller's investigation entered its second year with new charges and guilty pleas. A year from now, will we still be talking about the Mueller investigation? My guess is yes. However, what appears certain is that investigations will be with us for months. The question is: Will they have monumental impact?
Commentary on 01/02/2019