"Anti-establishment" conservative voters should be able to swing a low-turnout GOP primary. That didn't happen Tuesday. That matters, a lot.
For instance, Lance Eads of Springdale soundly defeated incumbent Rep. Randy Alexander, R-Springdale. Alexander is a former chairman of the Washington County TEA Party.
Similarly, rookie House candidate Jana Della Rosa of Rogers was unjustly tarred and feathered with anti-Obamacare flyers before Tuesday. Such a campaign tactic would have decided a Republican primary two years ago. She not only won without a runoff, her closest opponent fell short of 36 percent of the vote.
We appear to have turned a corner. Reps. Jim Dotson, R-Bentonville, and Sue Scott, R-Rogers, won comfortably in races in which their much-ballyhooed private option health plan votes made no difference. Dotson voted against it; Scott voted for it.
Too many articles about this year's primaries say voters sent "mixed signals" about the private option. The signal only looks mixed if you assume voters care about the private option. Voters very clearly based their primary decisions on other things, things that actually matter to them. The places the private option mattered are a few hot spots like Baxter County, the only county carried by GOP governor's candidate Curtis Coleman.
In Springdale, the thing that mattered was schools. The town cherishes a long history of commitment to traditional public education done well. Alexander became an outspoken supporter of alternatives to traditional public schools. Other than that, his constituents had no reason I know of to dismiss him. His opposition to private option made him more friends than enemies in that district. "Establishment" business supported both Eads and Dotson's opponent, and Dotson did well.
Della Rosa, Dotson and Scott won their races the old-fashioned way: shoe leather and sweat. Dotson and Scott were also incumbents. Della Rosa had the best resume and the most dynamic personality. Dynamic personality, shoe leather and sweat also made up a winning combination for Rebecca Petty in Rogers in her impressive win over Marge Wolf, one of the best-qualified candidates in the primary. Even Petty said she wished she was running against someone else.
Now for the primary's wider implications: Northwest Arkansas lost control of the state GOP. We still matter more than anybody else in the party's primaries, but we're not the last word any more.
No statewide candidate since 1994 won the state GOP nomination without carrying Benton County. As late as 2010, central Arkansas' sent its best candidate into a GOP primary for U.S. Senate. He finished a distant third. Anyone who even tried to win without Benton County had the hope, however forlorn, to offset a loss there with big wins in Pulaski and Faulkner counties. That never worked.
Then Dennis Milligan won the party's race for state treasurer Tuesday. He got clobbered in Benton County, 60-40. He lost in Pulaski, Faulkner and Washington counties. He barely won Sebastian. But he won with 55 percent of the overall vote anyway.
The results look like the same urban-rural split that drove the Democrats -- the last majority party -- nuts for years. The countryside and smaller towns won't agree with the big ones and won't defer to them either.
There were two big differences between Milligan and opponent Duncan Baird. First, Baird was vastly more qualified. Second, Milligan opposed the so-called "private option" health care plan. Neither issue appeared to make much difference.
Perhaps Baird's "sin" wasn't support for the private option itself, but being one of the "Young Turks" who got it passed. Milligan is a member of the "Old Guard," endorsed by former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Baird was endorsed by practically every Republican still in office who expressed an opinion. So perhaps the "Old Guard's" support still mattered in a down-ballot race.
Milligan may also have simply outworked Baird. Milligan won that race by carrying his home county, Saline, by 3,000 votes. That alone nearly offset Baird's 3,200-vote margin in Benton County. Then Milligan carried neighboring Garland County by 2,700 votes. He won the Republican hot spots of Pope (Russellville), White (Searcy), and Craighead (Jonesboro) by at least 1,000 votes each. Finally, he won the small, rural counties outside of Northwest Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District.
So now the GOP can be thankful that the last, Democratic treasurer self-destructed. They're going into a general election with a candidate who didn't win a big county in his own primary.
There' s plenty of time to write about the governor's and attorney general's races, which have really just begun. The biggest race with the most immediate consequences for the GOP is the lieutenant governor's contest. The party's nominee, U.S. Rep. Tim Griffin, is a skilled political operator from central Arkansas. If he wins that largely ceremonial office, he'll have the time, inclination, skills and standing to expand the party further still.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Commentary on 05/25/2014