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Week 18 delivered several upsets that swayed the final slate of the NFL regular season in favor of oddsmakers.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles head into the playoffs trending in the wrong direction. Sunday's 27-10 loss against the Giants burned bettors as Philadelphia were one of the biggest backed public favorites. The Eagles, who started the year 10-1, are just the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs despite losing five of their final six games. Philadelphia, who finished the regular season a dismal 6-8-3 Against The Spread (ATS), head into their Super Wild Card Weekend showdown with Tampa Bay as 2.5-point road favorites.
After losing five of their last six games, Jacksonville was eliminated from the postseason after being upset by AFC South rival Tennessee, 28-20. After starting the season 8-2, the Jaguars stumbled badly down the stretch and will now look forward to bouncing back in 2024 with an offense loaded with young offensive talent.
Josh Allen and the Bills (11-6) won the AFC East for the fourth consecutive year after posting a 21-14 come-from-behind win over Miami. Buffalo, who finished a disappointing 7-10 ATS, earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The Bills have been installed as 9.5-point home favorites against the Steelers next weekend.
In the NFC, Dallas clinched the NFC East after beating Washington 38-20 at FedEx Field. The Cowboys, who won seven of their final nine games, made it difficult for bettors to capitalize on their success down the stretch covering the spread only twice over their final six games (2-4 ATS).
The NFC North champion Lions, who beat the Vikings 30-20 in the regular season finale, ended the year as NFL's best team versus the number 12-5 ATS (70.6%).
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Despite missing the playoffs, the Raiders were very lucrative for bettors to back once Antonio Pierce took over as head coach. Las Vegas, who were 3-5 ATS under Josh McDaniels, finished the season 7-1-1 ATS (87.5%) under their fiery interim coach.
Favorites finished the regular season with an amazing 186-86 SU (68.4%) record in 2023 and that trend continued as higher power ranked teams by oddsmakers posted a 11-5 straight-up (SU) mark. Five underdogs - Jets (+2.5), Giants (+5), Rams (+5.5), Titans (+3.5) and Chiefs (+3.5) - pulled off outright upsets.
After a massive trend of low scoring primetime games early in the season, bettors witnessed showcased matchups level out finishing the year with only a 32-23 (58.2%) mark to the under. In simple wagering terms, if a bettor were to have blindly wagered $100 on every primetime game in the NFL in 2023 they would have profited $670.
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Nine-Team Parlay Gets Home At Massive Odds
One bettor named @edendiamonds on Instagram placed a $200 'nine-team parlay on Sunday.
The investment consisted of the Titans ML (+140), Jets ML (+130), Tampa Bay ML (-185), Bengals ML (-395), Saints (-2.5), Lions ML (-160), Packers ML (-140) and Giants ML (+185).
The ticket headed into Sunday Night Football only needing the Bills on the money line at odds of -162 to complete the massive win.
When Josh Allen and the Bills earned a 21-14 come-from-behind win, the $200 wager at odds of +24455 returned an huge payout of $49,111.
Backup QB's Rushing Ability Leads To Impressive Score
In the final week of the regular season, one bettor by the name of @vinnybtw on Instagram placed a $100 three-leg same-game parlay involving both quarterbacks in the Rams-49ers clash.
The investment involved backup signal-callers Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold both scoring touchdowns coupled with the Rams pulling off the outright upset win.
After Darnold, who entered the game with 12 rushing touchdowns in 65 games in the NFL, plunged in from the one yard line mid-way through the second quarter the sweat was on. The wager still needed Wentz to find the end zone combined with Los Angeles erasing a 21-7 halftime deficit.
The $100 wager at odds of +13000 was still not complete when Wentz scored from 12 yards out late in the fourth quarter. After Wentz found WR Tutu Atwell on the two-point conversion attempt, euphoria commenced when the Rams held on for a 21-20 win resulting in huge five-figure cash.
Final 2023 Regular Season Betting Landscape
In Week 18, bettors witnessed road teams go 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS. On the year, home teams finished with a solid 150-117 SU (56.47%) mark, with a minimal statistical ATS advantage ending the regular season with a 129-128-10 ATS (50.2%) record.
*Editor's Note: International games (5 are not included in home / road stats)
Bettors watched favorites go 11-5 SU while also grabbing the much-coveted edge versus the number posting a 10-6 ATS mark in Week 18. Overall, favorites finished the season with a 137-122-13 ATS (52.9%) edge on the year.
Games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 9-7 mark to the under on the final week. Overall, unders completed the 2023 campaign with a sizable edge of 145-125-2 (53.7%)
Bad Beats
Goal Line Tackle As First Half Expires Delivers SNF Bad Beat
Investors heavily backed that the Bills-Dolphins showdown would be higher scoring than oddsmakers were predicting.
Bettors attempted to avoid the inflated game total, instead focusing on the first half total of 24.5. With Miami leading Buffalo 14-7, the Bills faced 1st and 10 from the Miami 11 yard line with only :11 seconds remaining and no timeouts.
Game of inches 👀
— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
📺: #BUFvsMIA on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/GqJJdyI3EW pic.twitter.com/NFerMKtJnq
After Josh Allen found Ty Johnson at the Miami three yard line, the versatile running back was tackled at the one yard line by Eli Apple and Jerome Baker .
Following the outstanding tackle, just inches from the goal line, the clock expired ending the first half with just 21 combined points.
Late Two-Point Conversion Results In Brutal Bad Beat
Bettors heavily wagered that the Rams-49ers showdown would be a low scoring game.
With both clubs resting many of the starters ahead of the playoffs, the total was steamed from 44 to 40.5.
After Carson Wentz scored a rushing touchdown with only 4:56 remaining cutting the 49ers lead to 20-19, the game and the total came down to the two-point conversion attempt by Los Angeles.
— HammySam (@HammySam3) January 8, 2024
The bad beat was delivered when Wentz found Tutu Atwell in the back of the end zone, giving the Rams a 21-20 lead, sending the game over the closing total by the dreaded hook.
Significant Decisions In Favor of Sportsbooks In Week 18
72% of money on San Francisco -5.5
- Carson Wentz shined to help the Rams out score the 49ers 14-0 in the second half, leading to a 21-20 road upset.
86% of money on SF/ LA Rams UNDER 40.5
- While bettors strongly backed a low-scoring affair, a late two-point conversion by the Rams pushed the game over the posted total by the dreaded hook.
82% of money on New England -2.5
- The Jets snapped a 15-game loss streak to the Patriots in perhaps Bill Belichick's last game as head coach of New England.
74% of money on Philadelphia -5
- Bettors heavily backed Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to continue their recent dominance over the Giants. However, New York flipped the script handing Philadelphia a 27-10 loss at MetLife Stadium.
84% of money on Miami/Buffalo 1H Over 24.5
- Sunday Night Football found sportsbooks with considerable liability on the first half total after bettors heavily backed a high-scoring affair in the battle for the AFC East. However, a strong goal line tackle at the one yard line on the final play of the first half kept the total under the demand of oddsmakers.
Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network (left); Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports (center, right)
2023 FINAL NFL REGULAR SEASON ATS STANDINGS
TEAM
Detroit: 12-5-0
Tampa Bay: 11-6-0
Baltimore: 11-6-0
Cleveland: 11-6-0
Las Vegas: 10-5-2
LA Rams: 10-6-1
Dallas: 10-7-0
Miami: 10-7-0
Pittsburgh: 10-7-0
Kansas City: 9-7-1
San Francisco: 9-8-0
Indianapolis: 9-8-0
Arizona: 9-7-1
Green Bay: 9-8-0
Jacksonville: 9-8-0
Houston: 9-8-0
Chicago: 8-7-2
NY Giants: 8-8-1
Minnesota: 7-7-3
Seattle: 7-8-2
Cincinnati: 7-8-2
Tennessee: 7-9-1
Buffalo: 7-10-0
Philadelphia: 6-8-3
Denver: 6-10-1
NY Jets: 6-10-1
Washington: 6-10-1
New Orleans: 6-10-1
LA Chargers: 6-11-0
New England: 6-11-0
Atlanta: 5-12-0
Carolina: 4-11-2
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
UPDATED SUPER BOWL LVIII ODDS AT SI SPORTSBOOK
San Francisco +225
Baltimore +320
Buffalo +650
Dallas +750
Kansas City +900
Detroit +1600
Philadelphia +2000
Miami +2000
Cleveland +3500
Houston +4000
LA Rams +5000
Tampa Bay +6000
Green Bay +6600
Pittsburgh +12500