Geologist and geophysicist Bud Davis, who dabbles in college football analytics as a hobby, collected and studied data from the first four years of the NCAA transfer portal and published the results on Feb. 1, 2022, and the findings were quite interesting.
The data included information from 16,964 recruits rated by 247 Sports from the 2016-2021 recruiting classes.
Transfer information was obtained from the recruiting service tracking the portal from 2019 to 2022. According to Davis, 4,174 players (24.6%) entered the portal and 2,743 players (16.2%) transferred from the team they signed with out of high school.
According to Davis, roughly one in four recruits will enter the portal and one in six will transfer.
"We do see skill position players enter the portal at a significantly higher rate than trench players, and I think that stands out to me because it's telling us how we should be constructing our rosters in terms of high school recruiting versus the portal," Davis said. "It really seems like the optimal strategy is to be getting the trench guys from high school and then still recruiting skill guys from high school but focus on supplementing skill players from the portal because the competition level for getting trench players from out of the portal is just so high.
"Everybody needs an offensive tackle. Everybody needs a defensive end or a linebacker that can cover. They just don't enter the portal at rates high enough for everybody to be able to use it for those positions. "
The data shows time and effort in recruiting and developing linemen from high school usually pays off more so than skill positions.
"It's much less risky to invest into a trench player overall multiple years versus [a] skill player," Davis said.
Davis also said the amount of recruits from each school's recruiting class entering the portal has increased since he published his first study.
"I think this year we're seeing one of the highest rates of entering the portal," Davis said. "When I did the analysis the first time. it was 5 to 6% of each class are hitting the portal. I think we're probably closer to 10% now. By the time the class is seniors, you're looking at of upwards of a third of the class is probably gone. It's pretty amazing."
Distance from home also factors into transfers. Players who attend school 50 miles or less away from their hometown have the lowest rates of transferring, while players 200 to 300 miles away transfer at roughly at an average rate. More than 300 miles and beyond from, and the transfer rate increases.
"At the end of the day, everyone wants to be around their family and spend time with their family and the family being able to celebrate their accomplishments. I think the portal data verifies that's true," Davis said.
His study showed players from the Southeast and Northeast have a higher rate of transferring, but he said he believes there's a possible explanation.
"It does seem like the schools in the Southeast and the Northeast are transferring at a higher rate than those in the West or Midwest," Davis said. "Some of that is probably the density of FBS schools or the density of P5 schools, and it's also the density of where football players come from in America."
While a sizable number of players transfer from and to schools of the same level, a larger number of players usually transfer down a level.
"I think some basics the portal mainly functions to send players down," Davis said. "I think the super star names get most of the hype but in general it's actually being used to kind of help filter players to their level they need to be playing at."
The higher rated recruiting classes have higher transfer rates than others. Top 15 classes have a transfer rate at a roughly 25% while lower rated classes transfer at lower rates.
The transfer portal opened Dec. 4 and runs until Jan. 2. Potential transfers have been visiting campuses across the nation the past two weeks with today being the last opportunity for schools to host transfers on campus. The dead period begins Monday and runs through Jan. 11.
Schools will have a small window to host mid-year transfers on Jan. 3-7.
Davis said he plans to do another study of the transfer portal after the spring transfer period of April 16-30. Schools with a coaching change see the highest rate of transfers.
"I do think we see the classes with the highest rates of portal entrances tend to be classes where they were recruited by a coach that subsequently was fired," Davis said. "I think that will get bourn out with the next phase of analyses, but I started to see it in this one where [with coaching turnover] you really risk of losing your roster."
Email Richard Davenport at [email protected]