BENTONVILLE -- Enrollment in the School District could increase by 2,200, or 12%, to a total of nearly 21,000 students in the next five years, according to an analysis by RSP and Associates.
Rob Schwarz, RSP founder and CEO, presented the results of the analysis and 71-page report to the School Board on Tuesday. It includes enrollment forecasts by level and school facility for the next five and 10 years, with current zone boundaries, along with tables, charts and maps.
The school board hired the Overland Park, Kan.-based firm in January to perform an enrollment analysis and an attendance boundary analysis at a cost of $60,000. It was paid for from the district's operating fund.
As part of the process of gathering data, RSP met with city and county planners, and developers to discuss land use, development policies, building permit trends and future housing development plans, according to Don Hoover, executive director of student services. The firm also collected information such as census data, birth rates in comparison to kindergarten enrollment, migration into the district, subdivision life-cycle, past enrollment trends and student cohort changes, according to Schwarz.
The district may face capacity challenges in the next five years at Centerton Gamble, Mary Mae Jones and Vaughn elementary schools; Bright Field and Creekside middle schools; Grimsley Junior High; and Bentonville West High School, according to the report.
The analysis found housing development is expected to continue to grow, with more than 20,000 potential housing units identified. The main corridors of growth are expected to be along Centerton Boulevard and south of 14th Street and Arkansas 112, it states.
School administrators will use the next several months to analyze the report and bring it before the School Board during its annual 10-year planning work session in October, Hoover said. The board will use the information to help make decisions on the 10-year plan, such as determining building needs and school zone analysis, he said.
"Our staff of professional educators and excellent administrators have done a really good job with our demographics and our studies, but clearly this is going to add a level of detail and layers of detail that will help us in making decisions," said School Board President Eric White.
Bentonville's district enrollment as of Oct. 1 was 18,536, which is up more than 30% from 10 years ago. The district has built and opened several new schools during that time. The next new building, Vaughn Elementary School, is scheduled to open this fall at Southwest Barron and Opal roads, near the Benton County Fairgrounds.
The district's last demographics study was done by Jack Schreder and Associates of Sacramento, Calif., in 2013.
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NoneFuture enrollment
Future enrollment forecast for the next five years:
• District increases by more than 2,200 students (12%) to nearly 21,000 students.
• Elementary school increases about 700 students (9.9%) to about 8,000 students.
• Middle school increases about 470 students (16.4%) to about 3,300 students.
• Junior high school increases about 250 students (8.8%) to about 3,100 students.
• High school increases by nearly 800 students (14.3%) to about 6,200 students.
Source: RSP and Associates