It's barely 2022 and already social media are swamped with pictures of empty grocery shelves -- from cream cheese to paper towels, children's juice boxes and cat food.
Some of the culprits for this round of shortfalls are the same as in the early days of the pandemic, and some can be chalked up to new problems bumping up against old ones.
The omicron variant surge of the covid-19 virus, bad weather, snags in the supply chain and more people buying groceries to eat at home are among the reasons many favorite items may be out of stock at stores.
The virus has meant more work for stores -- more deep cleaning, a return to masking and social distancing -- just as more employees can't work and are absent because of illness or quarantine.
In a Monday call with 27 food industry chief executives, Geoff Freeman, chief executive officer of the industry organization Consumer Brands Association, said more employee absences were reported in the past two weeks than in all of 2020.
"That's remarkable," he said. "Throw on top of that being down 120,000 truck drivers nationally, and another 10% of workers being absent at food manufacturing facilities, and you're putting a lot of pressure on the system all at one time."
The National Grocers Association has requested its grocers be prioritized for testing supplies from federal and state governments, and they've also asked for flexibility with new federal vaccination and testing mandates with the aim of minimizing further workforce disruptions, said Jim Dudlicek, the trade group's communications director.
With the prevalence of the omicron variant, even among vaccinated workers, many grocery chains are operating stores with less than half of their normal workforce, which makes it harder to stock and display grocery items or to prepare foods made on-site.
"While there is plenty of food in the supply chain, we anticipate consumers will continue to experience sporadic disruptions in certain product categories as we have seen over the past year and a half due to the ongoing supply and labor challenges," Dudlicek said.
BAD WEATHER
Winter storms dumped more than a foot of snow across parts of the Mid-Atlantic just after the New Year, and sweeping weather systems have made road conditions difficult in many parts of the country in the past two weeks.
For example, the 20-plus-hour traffic jam last week on I-95 near Stafford, Va., paralyzed a fair number of grocery delivery semi trucks.
"The winter months are always challenging," said Doug Baker, vice president of industry relations for the Food Marketing Institute, a food industry organization. "But we've seen weather patterns that we're not used to in terms of frequency and magnitude, from the West Coast to the East Coast."
In addition to weather delaying the delivery to grocery stores around the country, Baker said bad weather also influences consumer psychology, which played into some items becoming out of stock.
"There are certain products people ritually buy when there is an impending weather event," Baker said. "And then when people see images of stores low on stock, it's not out of the ordinary for people to buy two of something instead of one, just in case."
SUPPLY CHAIN SNARLS
Supply chain problems are no longer just about shipping containers sitting in ports or out at sea, waiting to be unloaded. They are also about the slowing of the production of goods that the United States imports.
In China and the United Kingdom, some municipalities have once again shut down factories and thus slowed orders for certain ingredients and food products for U.S. imports.
"A lot of our ingredients and products come from countries that have had their own [covid] spikes," Baker said. "Some countries have taken a very strict approach and shut down manufacturing, so that slows the whole process down. It's not just a domestic issue, it's about how other countries are dealing with omicron."
Fruits and vegetables have seen fewer instances of shortfalls and supply problems than other food categories, but currently there are some empty shelves that are more about food safety. The Food and Drug Administration last week issued a voluntary recall on certain bagged salads and other vegetables because of possible listeria contamination. In general, though, there have been fewer food recalls during the pandemic.
DINING AT HOME
A combination of factors from rising inflation to surging omicron cases are prompting households to eat at home more -- once again meaning grocery stores are being inundated with shoppers.
Grocery sales climbed more than 8 percent in December, according to national retail sales tracker Mastercard SpendingPulse. Stores are still restocking from that surge and have been struggling to keep shelves fully stocked in several categories since the beginning of this year, according to data firm IRI's consumer packaged goods supply index.
"We're seeing a lot of restocking and replenishment going on," said Jessica Dankert, vice president of supply chain for Retail Leaders Industry Association. The heavy shopping season has come at a particularly difficult time for coming out of the holiday period, when families traditionally cook more at home anyway.
"You'll see that replenishment build back up," Dankert predicted, "but we'll see these disruptions for months to come." Inflation has also been influencing consumer behavior, driving them to eat more at home and travel and eat out less.
Grocery prices rose 6.4% over the past 12 months ending in December, the largest increase since 2008, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics index of prices. And for subcategories such as beef, prices rose a staggering 20.9%.