NEW YORK -- Just when a party was poised to break out in movie theaters, the below-expectation debut of "In the Heights" dampened Hollywood's hopes of a swift or smooth recovery at the summer box office.
Jon M. Chu's exuberant adaptation of Lin-Manuel Miranda's Broadway musical opened with a modest $11.4 million, according to studio estimates Sunday. Forecasts had ranged from $15-$20 million. The release of "In the Heights" -- a lavish song-and-dance musical accompanied by glowing reviews from critics and considered a milestone movie for Hispanics -- was widely seen as a cultural event.
On opening weekend, though, the Warner Bros. release just missed the top spot. Instead, "A Quiet Place Part II" edged it with $11.7 million in its third weekend of release.
The result is particularly unexpected considering the musical, which premiered simultaneously in theaters and on streaming service HBO Max, earned an A rating on Cinemascore and a 96% "fresh" score on the review aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes.
How to explain the the disappointing opening? Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian, who has witnessed all kinds of box office twists and turns in his years observing movie releases, weighs in.
"We're still in the middle of a learning process when it comes to the theatrical performance of films that have a hybrid release strategy," he said. "Musicals have a fairly mixed track record at the box office. Despite the high hopes and general enthusiasm for the film, this debut should not be the only metric for success."
The "In the Heights" team can also take heart from the past example of the musical "The Greatest Showman." Its opening weekend -- without the competition of a simultaneous streaming release -- was just $8.8 million, below "In the Heights." Yet the Hugh Jackman-starring film went on to make $438 million worldwide.
Similarly, "In the Heights" could prove to have legs well into the summer box office season, Dergarabedian says. "The good news is that the film has received strong reviews and positive reaction from audiences, so at least 'In the Heights' delivers the goods and makes for happy subscribers and [moviegoers]."
"A Quiet Place" is the first pandemic-era blockbuster to cross the $100 million mark in the United States and has grossed an impressive $183 million globally. Its cumulative U.S. total is $109 million.
Columbia's "Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway," a film originally planned to open at Easter 2020, also opened softly, debuting with an estimated $10.4 million
Warner Bros., as is standard throughout the industry, didn't release viewing data for "In the Heights" on HBO Max. The studio's day-and-date approach, planned to last through the end of the year, has been much-debated. But previous Warner releases -- particularly "Godzilla vs. Kong" (which managed a $32.2 million three-day opening in early April ) and last week's No. 1 film, "The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It" (a $24 million debut ) -- performed solidly while also being available in the home. The "Conjuring" sequel added $10 million in its second weekend.
Two weekends ago, Disney's "Cruella" may have also made a somewhat muted arrival in theaters because it opened at the same time on Disney+, for $30. Last weekend "Cruella" earned $6.7 million, bringing its total to $56 million.