The summer is almost over, although the thermometer has not indicated as such.
Either way, it’s time to risk ridicule for an annual prediction column on Arkansas football. It will be trashed for being wrong in less than four or five weeks.
The safest track is one-half game on either side of the Las Vegas over-under betting line. That’s 5.5 in most of the top places.
With a conservative approach in almost everything I do, that would mean 5-7 on the low side, 6-6 on the high. Less than that would indicate a no progress belief in Sam Pittman’s second year as coach. More than that invites the rose-colored glasses accusations.
Of course, I could produce the outlandish take my father sent to my email box for one of his Hawgs Illustrated commentaries during the Danny Ford era. He predicted the Hogs would go undefeated.
My phone call interrupted his morning routine: two eggs over easy, toasted rice bread and black coffee.
“I gave them what they dream of, another perfect record and a national title,” said Orville Henry, dead serious. “Run it as is. You should dream. I’m headed to the golf course shortly and my handicap says it’s going to be a miserable day.
“But I have dreams. I’ve got new golf clubs, new shoes and I’m going to enjoy them until it’s proven that my swing is still no good and it’s proven again I don’t have any nerves with my putting.”
It makes sense. The Razorbacks have new coaches and a new spirit that permeates the state suggesting Pittman is the right man to rebuild the program. He’s convinced most that the team is tougher, bigger and more physical and knows how to work.
Shouldn’t that translate to better than three SEC victories? That’s what Pittman accomplished last year without a spring practice and with players gone from campus for four months because of covid-19 shutdowns.
This is all part of my thoughts that 6-6 is doable and 7-5 is possible, the latter with a victory over Texas. I’ll go with seven.
The problem with making a prediction for this Arkansas team is not rating improvement for the home team. You must consider that the Hogs are going to play the nation’s toughest schedule. All of those juggernaut teams are getting the same break as Pittman, a spring practice and solid summer of lifting and running.
That translates to lots of games in which Pittman’s hungry team will be the underdog. To beat the over-under common sense would tell you two upsets would be required.
Mississippi State is predicted behind Arkansas in the seven-team SEC West. That’s one of the three teams the Hogs beat last year. Will Mike Leach make a big jump in his second year with the Bulldogs?
That’s my way of saying that nothing will be easy, nothing can be taken for granted. All must be earned.
So let’s state an obvious goal: six victories and a bowl trip. That’s not easy and there will have to be an upset to get there.
Now to the meat of this, counting victories. Yes, they will have to be earned, but let’s start with Rice, Georgia Southern and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Without those, it’s hard to imagine any among Razorback Nation finishing the season with a smile.
If the Hogs repeat last year and win three SEC games, that gets you to six wins. That probably requires at least two upsets, assuming they will be favored at home against Mississippi State.
If not that, what about the elephant in the room. Yes, I’m talking about Texas and the Sept. 11 game that everyone has circled.
Texas is doable, probably a coin flip when game week arrives. Of course, what the Hogs do against Rice and the Longhorns do against Louisiana-Lafayette in their opener will push things one way or another.
Is this the game that will decide public opinion on whether the Hogs have taken a jump forward under Pittman? It’s not the right approach, but that’s probably what’s going to happen.
It is dangerous to pin too much hope on one game, but for the sake of this commentary, I’ll go there because someone made me.
It’s my strong belief that Arkansas will win for the simple reason that it’s in Year 2 of the Pittman era and Texas will still be searching for its way in Game 2 under Steve Sarkisian.
The concern with predicting that kind of a victory — huge in the eyes of the old-timers like me — is that it could produce such a euphoric celebration on Dickson Street that it might cause Pittman’s team to lose focus.
The way for these Hogs to continue to build to six victories will require steady improvement without a string of major injuries, along with reliance on the work ethic that Pittman champions.
“I like this team because of the way it works,” he said.
Everything Pittman preaches is centered on work ethic. They have built a practice schedule that includes one more day of heavy practice than seem to be the norm around college football. It’s at the core of what he thinks might provide an advantage.
I think just normal improvement on offense and defense can lead to this kind of record, with one disclaimer: special teams must make a big jump.
If Greg Brooks is the punt return man, the ball must not hit the ground. Kickoffs must not go out of bounds. Protection on punts, field goals and extra points must be perfect.
Placekicker Cam Little and punter Reid Bauer have been good in camp. They seem more than adequate, but the best Arkansas teams have always been better in these two areas.
These were the core elements of what Frank Broyles developed as the winning edge in the glory days. Kicking game mistakes must be eliminated. Return specialists were more than just center fielders with good hands. Pittman thinks he’s seen signs of some home-run hitters catching punts and kickoffs.
Special teams must be special if Arkansas is to get past six victories. There is no real edge in talent to overcome any mistakes in the kicking game.
It’s the very thing that I thought Pittman understood the most when he announced his first staff with Scott Fountain as a special teams coordinator and no other duties.
What all this means is that the 2021 Hogs could surprise. Oh, I know what my father would write: they will win them all.
If that comes to pass, I’ll bet special teams turned out to be special.