Rick Lee's Oaklawn Park Picks and Analysis

Posted: February 4, 2018 at 2:37 a.m.

SATURDAY'S RESULTS 4-9 (44.4 percent)

MEET 33-117 (28.2 percent)

LEE'S LOCK Donita's Ruler in the sixth

BEST BET Detroit Cowboy in the ninth

LONG SHOT Circle Unbroken in the fifth

*educated guess

**things to like

***plenty to like

****confident choice

1 Purse $25,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races, claiming $20,000

**WHITE GOLD has finished second in three consecutive fast-track races, and the front-runner benefits from a race over the track. EYE ON HARPER broke slowly and raced wide in a deceptive 2018 debut, and she is dropping in price and switching to a rider having an excellent meeting. DARION'S DREAM raced competitively at a higher level last fall at Churchill, and winning trainer Federico Villafranco is overdue to heat up.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

3 White Gold;Cohen;Kobiskie;2-1

2 Eye On Harper;Cabrera;Morse;3-1

1 Darion's Dream;Vazquez;Villafranco;5-1

6 Orbelina;Wethey;Prather;8-1

5 Miss Azul;St Julien;Hall;8-1

4 Magic Feet;Thompson;Ackerman;6-1

8 Greely's Comet;Morales;Thomas;12-1

7 Roan Feathers;Prescott;Puhl;12-1

2 Purse $32,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $40,000

*SHE'S A QUEEN lost all chance when forced to check down the backstretch in a 10th-place debut, but she showed speed and is dropping in class while adding blinkers. BELLA MY GIRL was forwardly placed in a fifth-place debut against better, and typical second-out improvement will make her a major contender. ALL ABOUT BETTY is adding blinkers after a one-paced effort, and she too is dropping in class and figures a late threat.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

1 She's a Queen;Sanjur;Milligan;12-1

12 Bella My Girl;McMahon;Cates;3-1

10 All About Betty;Quinonez;Von Hemel;4-1

8 Spunky Town;Pompell;Smith;10-1

9 Dixie Forest;Canchari;Martin;9-2

2 Princesa Sparkle;Morales;Shumake;12-1

11 Seaside Surprise;Goncalves;Nicks;12-1

6 Sattersfield;Court;Prather;8-1

5 Brahmie;Loveberry;Hornsby;15-1

3 Ordained Harbor;Thompson;Martin;12-1

4 Cara Creek;Luzzi;Witt;15-1

7 Chiroc;Cabrera;Stuart;20-1

3 Purse $32,000, 1 1/16 miles, 4-year-olds and up who have never won three races, claiming $30,000

**TRAVEL WEST is only a head from having won three consecutive races at Hawthorne, and he is vastly improved since focusing on route races. The pace figures fast enough to flatter his late run. SECRET HOUSE has shown speed to better in Kentucky and California. He is adding blinkers for high percentage connections, but taking a short price on a horse exiting a dull effort is not a way to long-term profits. MINEFIELD has faltered in three previous tries at 1 mile, but he is likely the controlling speed and his winning trainer must believe he can go this far.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

6 Travel West;Roman;Williamson;7-2

3 Secret House;Stevens;Cox;2-1

2 Minefield;Cohen;Moquett;7-2

7 Cass in Stone;Cabrera;Caldwell;9-2

5 Chocolateicecream;Santana;Compton;6-1

4 Sports Reporter;Thompson;Martin;10-1

1 Pitchfork Mountain;Eramia;Petalino;12-1

4 Purse $21,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $12,500

**JUSTANOTHERBIRD has shown tactical speed in four in-the-money finishes in Kentucky, and he is back at his preferred distance after a useful sprint at Turfway Park. DANNY O finished fourth best in a $30,000 maiden-claimer at Santa Anita, and trainer Doug O'Neill is spotting horses where they can win. CAPTIVATED was beaten only a neck at a higher level just three races back at Churchill, and a similar effort likely will defeat this field.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

9 Justanotherbird;Cabrera;Garcia;5-1

6 Danny O;Morales;O'Neill;3-1

4 Captivated;Pompell;Holthus;7-2

10 Make It Work;Canchari;McPeek;7-2

5 Dirty Day;Johnson;Hartlage;30-1

1 John Allen;Court;Fires;6-1

1a Bo Tee;Court;Fires;6-1

7 Artesia Wells;McMahon;Van Meter;8-1

2 Saber Rattler;Eramia;Von Hemel;20-1

8 Datboygofast;Quinonez;Von Hemel;15-1

3 War Or Peace;Birzer;Jayaraman;20-1

5 Purse $20,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $8,000

*CIRCLE UNBROKEN contested the pace while caught three-deep in a deceptive fourth-place finish, and the beaten post-time favorite switches riders and is talented enough to make amends. GREELEYS CHARM was beaten a diminishing neck just 11 days ago, and he may have a fitness edge over today's rivals. VALIANT FLAME won six of eight races on synthetic surfaces in 2017, but he is winless in 16 dirt starts.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

12 Circle Unbroken;McMahon;Garcia;20-1

4 Greeleys Charm;Thompson;Donaldson;8-1

1 Valiant Flame;Cohen;Diodoro;3-1

3 Chocolate Wildcat;Santana;Caldwell;5-2

6 Double Ours;Maldonado;Diodoro;6-1

8 Jive Daddy;Loveberry;Milligan;12-1

10 Pistone Steel;Prescott;Puhl;20-1

7 Dion;Goncalves;Martin;20-1

9 Battered;Canchari;Anderson;15-1

2 Wildcat Shoals;St Julien;Chleborad;6-1

11 Sky Flight;Cabrera;Caldwell;15-1

5 Hubert Junior;Perez;Puhl;20-1

6 Purse $32,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, claiming $30,000

****DONITA'S RULER finished less than 2 lengths behind a heavily favored winner in a troubled trip, and the 13-race winner is dropping in class and appears to stand out. ROSE TO GLORY was narrowly beaten in a slightly troubled optional-claimer at Turfway Park, and she does have a good record at Oaklawn Park. JERSEY HEIST raced competitively in a pair of allowance races after defeating maiden-allowance rivals last season at Oaklawn, and she appears to be working well since arriving in Hot Springs.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

1 Donita's Ruler;Vazquez;Villafranco;6-5

5 Rose to Glory;Contreras;Matthews;8-1

7 Jersey Heist;Canchari;DiVito;9-2

1a Queen Kate;Vazquez;Villafranco;6-5

6 Liam's World;Maldonado;Diodoro;4-1

2 Indian Gem;McMahon;Holthus;6-1

8 Arch Arch Baby;Court;Fires;12-1

3 Launch Away;Prescott;Hughes;20-1

4 Perfect Plus;Felix;Swearingen;15-1

7 Purse $75,000, 6 furlongs, fillies, 3-year-olds, maiden special weight

***THREAD THE NEEDLE was beaten a neck while 5 lengths clear of third in a sharp seasonal debut, and she had a good subsequent breeze and a positive rider change. GOLDEN ROSE showed excellent speed when fourth behind the top selection, and she is adding blinkers and is strictly the one to catch. GOOD MOVE is an unraced filly with two months of sharp works, and red-hot trainer Brad Cox knows how to win with this kind.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

13 Thread the Needle;Cohen;Kobiskie;5-2

6 Golden Rose;Santana;Catalano;7-2

14 Good Move;Stevens;Cox;3-1

2 Party Club;McMahon;Lukas;5-1

7 Tahoe Dream;Loveberry;Robertson;15-1

4 Plenty Quick;Cabrera;Von Hemel;4-1

8 Crimson Creed;Hill;Mason;6-1

12 Murika;Cohen;Moquett;8-1

3 Juwwi;Goncalves;Peitz;10-1

11 Oklahoma Long Shot;Eramia;Gladd;15-1

9 Traci's Greeley;Morales;Thomas;20-1

10 Buskinfoalivin;Roman;Wiggins;15-1

1 Three Halos;Birzer;Anderson;8-1

5 Queen Day Victory;Sanjur;Cox;20-1

8 Purse $77,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming

***THE CRAIC has earned strong Beyer figures in winning four of her past seven races at Woodbine, and her local works suggests she will handle the surface change. DAWNMINO outsprinted entry-level allowance rivals on two races back at Woodbine, and she is one-half of a powerful entry. CARA BLYTHE showed early speed in a third-place finish at this level at Churchill, and she did win both of her races last winter at Oaklawn.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

1a The Craic;Cohen;McKnight;7-5

1 Dawnmino;Vazquez;McKnight;7-5

4 Cara Blythe;Stevens;Van Berg;7-2

6 Vilaro;McMahon;Holthus;8-1

3 Street Biz;Pompell;Delong;9-2

7 Breaking Bread;Maldonado;Stall;4-1

2 Heat My Dust;Eramia;Cates;15-1

5 Avisionofchocolate;Court;Fires;12-1

9 Purse $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, claiming $16,000

****DETROIT COWBOY raced close to a fast pace before fading late in a useful 2018 debut. He is dropping into state-bred company and may lead these past every pole. CANNINGTON forced a fast and contested pace in a deceptive sixth-place finish, and he switches riders and drew a favorable post for a sprinter with speed. RUNAROUNDDANCING has not raced since August, but his races at Prairie Meadows and Oaklawn make him a threat from off the pace.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

6 Detroit Cowboy;Court;Cox;2-1

10 Cannington;McMahon;Gustafson;15-1

1a Runarounddancing;Thompson;Martin;7-2

4 Tour de Rock;Santana;Hornsby;3-1

1 October Sky;Cohen;Martin;7-2

7 Devilishly Clever;Birzer;Roberts;10-1

5 Sarah's Swingtown;Pompell;Smith;12-1

8 Gone Preachin;Cabrera;Caldwell;12-1

2 Suspect a Storm;Canchari;Martin;12-1

9 Hank's Alibi;Loveberry;Petalino;20-1

3 The Checotah Kid;Goncalves;Riecken;20-1

EXOTIC POSSIBILITIES

She's a Queen figures a big price in the second race, so I'll swing for the fences and put her on top in a trifecta, and I'll put several in the place and show spots. The sixth race starts a 50-cent Pick-4, and Donita's Ruler appears a single. The seventh race is a four-horse race, but all depends upon which if any horses draw in from the also eligible list. The Norman McKnight entry appears strong in the eighth, but two others are capable. Detroit Cowboy is likely a single for many, but I'll add Cannington since he figures to be a price.

Sports on 02/04/2018