Everything seems to be coming up lilies this hopeful spring. Donald J. Trump is leading the Easter parade this year by saying he sees "a good chance" that of all of the world's troublesome leaders, North Korea's Kim Jong Un will "do what is right for his people and humanity" by moving toward peace.
America's president says he's got the good word from still Communist China's Xi Jinping that the Chinese president's recent meeting in Beijing with his North Korean counterpart and long-time ally "went very well," and that North Korea's strange dictator "looks forward" to meeting with the American president.
Echoing the optimism of her boss, Heather Nauert at the State Department called Kim Jong Un's Chinese visit "an unprecedented, historic step in the right direction," and praised the president for creating conditions that have led to North Korea's willingness even to discuss shutting down its nuclear activities. "It is also evidence," she added, "that [the American president's] maximum pressure campaign is working. We look forward to sitting down with Kim Jong Un to talk about a better future for his people."
A wise leader learns to hold his friends tight and his enemies even tighter, the better to keep a sharp eye on both. This may be Beloved Leader Kim's first trip outside his tightly sealed country, as its leader at least, and as usual he traveled by armored train--just as the Germans opened their lines during the First World War to let Comrade Lenin pass through, sending him into Bolshevik territory as they might a bacteria-laden weapon. History may not repeat itself but it does have an eerie way of rhyming. The ideological version of germ warfare is nothing new.
Beijing "is reasserting itself, and looking to shape the agenda for the upcoming summits," says Adam Mount of the Federation of American Scientists. Division between Beijing and Pyongyang was a major asset to Trump's pressure campaign. So strengthening those ties would weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and "diminish further the effectiveness of U.S. military threats."
All the players in this not so great game of foreign intrigue continue to hold their cards close to their chests while keeping a wary eye on each other. Ni Lexiong of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law says the North Korean leader has been using this proxy contest between China and the United States to "obtain benefits from both sides." The picture is further complicated by President Trump's threat to wage a trade war against China.
Whatever his faults, Donald Trump's national security adviser-to-be can't be accused of lacking a bold imagination. He suggested that North Korea simply ship its entire nuclear arsenal to Oak Ridge in Tennessee till all this hubbub blows over. Fat chance of that happening any time soon or ever, but there is something admirable in the specificity of the proposal.
Some foreign policy analysts see Kim Jong Un's visit to Beijing as a masterful stroke of foreign policy that will make him look like a genuine peacemaker instead of the bristling troublemaker he's historically been. "You're building this momentum, looking reasonable, looking willing to denuclearize," says Korea scholar Sue Mi Terry of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "If we don't play ball with this hawkish team in place with [John] Bolton and so on, at least perception-wise, we look like we're the problem."
It's hard to tell all the players in this game without a scorecard, but the world isn't lacking self-certified experts who seem all too ready to share their ideas. At the same time, our faithful Japanese friend and ally--Prime Minister Shinzo Abe--says he's worried that North Korea's threat to his country may not come up at all at the summit.
Prime Minister Abe told his parliament that he's worried "medium-range missiles and short-range missiles, the kind of missiles that are threats to Japan, may not be taken up during the talks, where the focus may be limited to ICBMs. I'm also afraid that [Trump] may achieve a nuclear test ban but end up accepting North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons."
Nobody can say Americans and the world haven't been warned. How long before we're all arguing about throw-weights of intercontinental missiles again?
Editorial on 04/02/2018