I've heard more than one person say the Razorbacks will win between six and nine football games this season.
That's like saying a major earthquake will hit Arkansas in the next 30-3,000 years. Can't we be more specific?
Yes, we can, and I will try again after predicting Arkansas would finish 8-5 last season with a bowl win over Iowa. Arkansas instead went 7-6 with a bowl loss to Virginia Tech.
KEY GAME
Fans are skeptical and the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, really needs to win two of its three early games against TCU, Texas A&M and South Carolina to regain support. Going 1-1 against TCU and Texas A&M is OK if the Razorbacks win on the road at South Carolina.
The South Carolina game is pivotal. Lose that game, and the Hogs could be in serious trouble with Alabama and Auburn following on the schedule.
BEST WIN
I was correct when I wrote last year Florida would be Arkansas' biggest win.
This year, it's Texas A&M, which owns a five-game winning streak over the Hogs. The motormouths at ESPN will label this the "hot seat" game, and speculation about the job security of the losing head coach will increase.
That'll be Kevin Sumlin, who won't make it past five years with the Aggies.
WORST LOSS
No one this side of Gus Malzahn could've predicted the 56-3 whipping Auburn put on the Porkers last season. Arkansas has to go to Florida, which is 9-2 against the Razorbacks.
Gators get revenge against the Hogs in a big way at The Swamp.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
I missed badly last year when I predicted Deatrich Wise would lead the way as MVP for an improved Arkansas defense.
Wrong on both counts.
Quarterback Austin Allen is the easy pick for MVP this season, and no one else will be close.
BREAKOUT PLAYER
I correctly pegged Drew Morgan two years ago after he had only 10 catches the previous year and Austin Allen last season after he completed only one of his three passes as a backup. Both had outstanding junior seasons.
Arkansas is in trouble again if someone doesn't emerge from a defense that allowed 31 points per game last season. I got a good look at Arkansas in a scrimmage and was impressed with the defensive secondary, especially Santos Ramirez.
Ramirez is a tall and hard-hitting junior who looks like the players Arkansas used to produce in the secondary. I'm not ready to put him in the category of Steve Atwater, but Ramirez will become an All-SEC player after intercepting one pass last season.
TOP NEWCOMER
The speed.
The moves.
The genes.
Yes, I'm talking about freshman running back Chase Hayden, who wears No. 2 but will emerge as No. 1 in the backfield for Arkansas.
Hayden is the son of Aaron Hayden, a former running back at Tennessee who played in the NFL with the San Diego Chargers. Arkansas has received good production from freshmen running backs in the past, and Hayden has the skills to make an immediate impact in the SEC.
FINAL RECORD
Remember in 2000 when Arkansas went 6-6 with a loss to UNLV in the Las Vegas Bowl? Arkansas started 3-0 then lost four of five.
Even with nonconference wins over Florida A&M, New Mexico State and Coastal Carolina, I don't anticipate Arkansas winning more than seven games this year. That'll be disappointing, too, considering Arkansas has the advantage of a fifth-year senior at quarterback.
But the defense must improve substantially just to be average, and on offense Arkansas hasn't shown it can control the line of scrimmage in short-yardage situations.
Arkansas will finish 7-6 again this season with a win over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl. Bret Bielema will be back in 2018 when the Hogs will be starting over at quarterback.
I will hold myself accountable and write a follow-up in December when the season is over -- or maybe in April if everything here is way off.
So mark it down, 7-6. But do so with a pencil and keep an eraser handy.
Sports on 08/20/2017