My liberal friends talk about how the GOP is a train wreck. The Republicans will “never” recover. Donald Trump has exposed them for what they are, or so the story goes. The country is getting more progressive, supposedly.
My, but that sounds so familiar. It brings back memories of 2008 — the last time the GOP was “destroyed.” It came roaring back in the next election.
No one who reads my mumbling can accuse me of downplaying the GOP catastrophe that is Donald Trump’s campaign for president. There’s no softening the blow for conservatives of likely Supreme Court nominations or reduce the embarrassment if Hillary Clinton is elected. But dispirited Republicans — and gleeful Democrats — need to remember how well Republicans bounce back. And this time they will do more than bounce back. This time, lessons will be learned.
Consider a small example. Megyn Kelly of the conservative Fox News Network fought with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on live TV. Kelly used the term “sexual predator” in a segment about Trump. Gingrich bristled at her using that term. The two went at it from there.
A scene from a bitterly divided conservative movement? Yes. But also a long overdue reality check to a member of the old guard — from a woman whose boss left Fox News three months earlier in the wake of sexual harassment lawsuits. There’s a new, badly needed wind blowing.
GOP recovery from 2009 to 2010 was too quick and easy, thanks to a severe anti-Democratic backlash. Republicans didn’t have to fix their problems. They didn’t even have to admit they had any. Sometimes an amazing ability to bounce back lets a group keep making the same mistakes. Even after losing the presidential race in 2012, Republicans convinced themselves their candidate just wasn’t conservative enough.
This time, Republicans have already learned something vital. The lesson is the only thing they can thank Trump for. Josh Barro of Business Insider magazine summarized the lesson best back in May:
“Trump is the candidate who finally figured out how to exploit the fact that much of the Republican voter base does not share the policy preferences of the Republican donor class, and that it is therefore possible to win the nomination without being saddled with their unpopular policy preferences. He will not be the last candidate to understand this.”
Perhaps the next “candidate to understand this” will respect basic human rights, including the right not to be groped or kissed. The GOP had better hope so. The Republicans will get no free ride from an anti-Democratic backlash after this election. There’s no backlash when there’s no Democratic wave in the first place. Hillary Clinton won’t get a Democratic majority in Congress to pass another Obamacare or some such. There can’t be a reaction without an action.
Kyle Kellams of KUAF asked me Wednesday if Clinton will get a “honeymoon” from Congress. She won’t get a wedding night, I replied. That has consequences for her administration but has consequences for Republicans, too.
Whatever was left of the anti-Obama backlash is gone. Obamacare, for instance, is seeing huge rate increases in some states right now. Yet that’s no factor at all in this election, which:
• will see the GOP nominee for president get trounced
• will probably see the GOP lose control of the U.S. Senate and
• will likely see the GOP’s U.S. House majority gravely reduced, perhaps to such a degree they can’t re-elect their current House speaker.
Unfortunately, much more time and effort will go to waste in continued Republican House investigations of the Clintons. The GOP keeps hoping — against all experience — these probes will solve their political problems. They won’t. Sooner or later, GOP primary voters will admit they must offer a presidential candidate most American voters can stomach if they want to win
As for the deep rifts in the Republican Party, some competently played hardball can fix those. As 2020 approaches, the “establishment” faction should give up on anointing a candidate — especially another Bush — go to the religious right and say, “Look, anybody you want for president but Ted Cruz.” Then they should pick someone. Together those two factions could then go to the angry former Trump supporters and say, “You had your shot. You flopped hard. What are you going to do now, let Hillary get re-elected?”
Somewhere among all those GOP governors and congressmen, there’s someone who can lead this party and get through a Megyn Kelly interview, too. All they have to do is find him or her.
—––––– v –––––—
Doug Thompson is a political reporter and columnist for the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. He can be reached by email at [email protected] . Follow him on Twitter @NWADoug .