The next president will have to deal with Congress. There are two prevailing forecasts about how that will go. One is grim. The other is false.
President Barack Obama won the 2012 election fair and square. He's still considered a usurper by the House Republican majority. Resentment of him still makes it hard for Congress to simply pass a budget. So imagine the rage that will inflame such a Congress if Hillary Clinton wins a race the Republicans could have won if they'd nominated a housebroken beagle.
The worsened gridlock would continue to send more power to the executive branch by default. Something has to get done sometime. Not even this Congress can hold off Supreme Court nominations for another four years, though. Therefore, Clinton would pick the Supreme Court justice with the swing vote on cases involving her use of executive power.
Now, for the would-be comforting fantasy alternative.
The idea persists among conservatives -- and only among conservatives -- that Republicans in Congress could keep Donald Trump from hurting himself or the rest of the country too badly if he becomes president. At the very least, the GOP House would supposedly prevent Trump from doing more damage than Clinton would. How anyone can still believe this fantasy after what happened to President George W. Bush astounds me.
If a Republican majority in Congress could keep a president of their own party from flying off the rails, Bush II's visage would be carved into Mount Rushmore by now. Bush had a functional Republican majority, too. Now Speaker Paul Ryan can't manage his own caucus.
Suppose Trump wins. He will have defeated Clinton, the woman considered by the GOP base to be the great liberal she-devil herself. He would bring the party back to power after the "rule" of the "usurper" Obama. The man would be perceived as a giant killer by his party's base. Along the way, Trump made fools of the Republican establishment. And he leveled would-be rivals in the GOP primary.
President Trump would rule the Republican Party. No one wanting a future in GOP politics could stand up to him. Oh, and just like Clinton would, Trump would pick the swing-vote nominee to the Supreme Court. Checks and balances would be a fond memory.
At least another President Clinton could be resisted and slowed. The flow of power to her office would be grudging. Republicans could refuse to follow her off a cliff. The idea of Trump kept in check once he has power is absurd on its face. He has no power yet plus every incentive to behave himself until Nov. 8. He still can't be tamed. Granted, his supporters want him to burn down the government house. They should have checked for fire exits first.
Trump never got a majority of his own party on board before his nomination. He's the most unpopular political figure to ever gain a major party nomination in the history of polling such things. Yet this pariah will irresistibly set the GOP's political agenda, future course and long-term reputation if he get elected.
No group possesses less reason to believe that everything will turn out all right if they can just get their guy elected than Republicans. No group should have been more careful and demanding when naming their presidential nominee.
George W. Bush meant well. No harsher critic of his judgment walks the Earth than me. Even I never doubted Bush's patriotism or good intentions. He served as governor of a very large, very Republican state. He grew up in a political dynasty. He prayed humbly for God's guidance with every major decision and many minor ones. He even sought out advice, although listening to Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Chaney was his great failing.
Yet against all odds, Bush II's presidency became an all-flattening political disaster for conservatism and the GOP. That the party recovered so rapidly is a thing to marvel at. It can thank liberal overreach and amazing GOP resilience. Every election since 2010 has increased the GOP's power at the local and state level across the country. Its margin in Congress reached the highest level since the 1920's.
I have to wonder if even the GOP phoenix can rise from its ashes twice if it atomizes itself again at its first opportunity. Bush II proved that even a primed and ready president can fail. The odds are much, much heavier against an unprimed and unready one succeeding.
Commentary on 10/01/2016