Forty-nine Arkansas counties declined in population last year, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
But while the populations of those counties declined by 8,000, the 26 counties that gained population registered a combined 19,400-person increase. That means there were 2,978,204 Arkansans in 2015 -- 11,400 more than in 2014.
If these population trends continue, Arkansas will reach 3 million people next year, largely driven by growth in Northwest Arkansas, according to the bureau.
"From an economist point of view, I think it pretty clearly illustrates how population growth and economic activity are interrelated," said Michael Pakko, chief economist at the Institute for Economic Advancement at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.
"Obviously, you have Northwest Arkansas growing in population. That's where most of the job growth has been. The second real hot spot for employment growth over the past couple of years has been Jonesboro. You see that on the map as well."
As in past years, Benton and Washington counties ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in population growth. Benton County gained 6,800 people and Washington County gained 4,800 people in 2015.
The region -- which includes the University of Arkansas and its nearly 27,000 students -- is working to lure younger workers, said Kathy Deck, director of UA's Center for Business and Economic Research.
"Our community leaders have been very strategic about expanding and making Northwest Arkansas a place that is attractive to folks at the beginning of their careers," she said.
Central Arkansas -- Pulaski County and the six counties that surround it -- saw mixed population changes. Ultimately, the region is not growing as quickly as it was five years ago.
From 2010 through 2014, Pulaski County gained between 1,100 and 3,200 people per year. But last year, the population increased by less than 200, to 392,700.
The largest decline in the state occurred in neighboring Jefferson County, which lost 800 people. Declines have been worse in previous years. Since 2010, the county has lost 5,800 people.
According to data released earlier this year, Pine Bluff's metropolitan area -- Cleveland, Jefferson and Lincoln counties -- ranked No. 2 out of 381 metropolitan areas for its population decrease from 2010 through 2015.
But Saline County continues to grow. The population increased by 1,700 between 2014 and 2015, accounting for most of the growth in the seven-county central Arkansas region.
Saline County's County Judge Jeff Arey said that's good to know but it's no surprise to him.
"There are a number of reasons," he said. "Good schools, good jobs, and being centrally located next to the capital city are common reasons why people choose Saline County to live. We also have some very strong cities that do a very good job promoting their communities -- they just have a good community feel about them."
Unfortunately, however, a large chunk of the county's residents commute to Pulaski County to work, Arey said.
"That's an opportunity for industries to locate in Saline County," he said. "Most people would rather stay in Saline County, work and live in Saline County."
Improvements to Interstate 30, the widening of U.S. 70 and improvements to Arkansas 5 will help the population continue to increase, he said.
Saline County ranked No. 3 in population growth in the state, according to the census data. Developers are aware of the trend and are filing more plans for new subdivisions within the county, Arey said.
Overall, about 803,200 people lived in Pulaski, Saline, Faulkner, Perry, Grant, Jefferson and Lonoke counties in 2015. That's up from 801,400 people in 2014 and compared with 780,000 in 2010.
Pakko said population changes often are driven by job opportunities. That's why people move to Northwest Arkansas, but away from some of the rural parts of the state that shed 50 or 100 people per year.
"One of the continuing, long-term trends, is the move toward urbanization of the population," he said. "We see that continuing decade after decade, particularly the rural counties in the southeast part of the state are losing population or growing very slowly, and the growth is taking place in the metropolitan areas."
Mississippi County ranked No. 3 in population decline from 2014 to 2015, but Big River Steel, billed as a major economic development project, is expected to open in 2017 and create more than 500 jobs.
Clif Chitwood, executive director of the Great River Economic Development Foundation in Blytheville, said in an April interview that long-lost jobs have led to a declining population and ultimately a vote approving a 0.5 percent economic development sales tax.
Around 2000, alternatives to farming dried up in Mississippi County. A textile factory failed for the second time. Eaker Air Force Base at Blytheville closed.
"There were lots of middle-management people, and those people made up the backbone of the community -- Kiwanis, Rotary Club and the churches, the Little League baseball coaches -- and they just all vanished. I mean, it was like there was a virus that just took all of the middle managers," he said. "I don't know where those people went. I don't know what their children are doing. They're not here anymore, and with them went a sizable chunk of the middle class."
The county spent $14.5 million -- in addition to the state's $125 million bond issue -- to land Big River Steel.
"If we just go with the flow, we're going to go over the waterfall," Chitwood said. "There is a tipping point at which your fate is sealed and your game is over."
Ouachita County, No. 4 in population loss, also was the target of state money for economic development. The Legislature approved more than $87 million in aid for Lockheed Martin if it received a contract to build a next-generation military vehicle.
In the end, the military gave the $6.7 billion vehicle contract to Wisconsin rival Oshkosh Defense.
But Pakko said economic development projects are a drop in the bucket compared with the larger economic forces at work in the state.
"Most often, even the biggest-sounding projects really are tiny compared to the total number of people who are working and for that matter just the turnover that takes place in employment markets all the time," he said. "It ends up having a fairly small effect."
Information for this article was contributed by Brenda Bernet of the Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
A Section on 06/24/2016