As the so-called SEC primary date of March 1 approaches, it brings reflections on primaries past and the whole primary system.
Primaries are intended to produce a party nominee for electoral offices. When the subject of primary campaigns and elections comes up, I still think back to the hot old days of summer-time primaries. For many years, Arkansas had its primary elections for state and local offices in August. These were almost exclusively Democratic primaries as Democrats dominated the political scene. The initial primary was often followed by run-off elections involving the top two finishers in the first go-round if no candidate obtained majority support. And that process was usually "tantamount to election," since in most cases the Democrat would go on to relatively easy victory in the November general election.
The gubernatorial primaries of the 1940s and '50s were often hard-fought and entertaining in an era when television had not really taken its hold on politics.
In 1972 Arkansas Democrats moved the date to May and included presidential primaries. Arkansas had not really held presidential primaries until then and the reasons for this change included pressure from the Democratic National Committee for more participation in selecting presidential nominees. It was part of the effort to excise the image of candidates being chosen by party bosses in smoke-filled rooms. The Arkansas decision was also driven by a short-lived boomlet for favorite son U.S. Rep. Wilbur Mills, chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Nothing really came of that effort, but it changed the political calendar in Arkansas
Nationally, presidential primaries, which had been limited to a few states, had taken on growing importance, beginning in 1956. That year, Tennessee Sen. Estes Kefauver used primaries to challenge the presumptive Democratic nominee, Adlai Stevenson. Kefauver failed to dislodge Stevenson but did become his vice presidential running mate in an unsuccessful effort against the GOP Eisenhower-Nixon ticket. John F. Kennedy's win in the 1960 West Virginia Democratic primary brought added attention to primaries.
Subsequent quadrennials saw more states conducting presidential primaries. National party conventions became less important in actually determining party nominees.
Arkansas has seen various dates and rationales for scheduling primaries, but in several cases the dates have been intended to give the state a higher profile in the national process and/or to provide a showcase for candidates with strong ties to the state. That is what led to setting this year's primaries on March 1 -- part of "Super Tuesday" or the "SEC Primary," which would also be the polling date for many other states in the region.
In the case of this year's primary, Republican leaders, who now dominate state politics, chose the date with the idea of benefiting former Gov. Mike Huckabee in his now-abandoned bid for the Republican presidential nomination. At the same time, it set up an opportunity in the Democratic primary for a show of strength by Hillary Clinton, former Arkansas first lady.
Alas, Huckabee's campaign quickly collapsed, this time. Hillary Clinton has had a less-than-impressive takeoff, but still ranks as the Democratic favorite. A strong showing in Arkansas and the region is expected and anything less could be damaging in her battle against Bernie Sanders.
Thus far, Arkansas hasn't managed to get a higher profile nationally, but maybe the highly competitive and combative Republican presidential race will give Arkansas at least a brief time in the spotlight. There have been and will be candidate visits, including stops by Donald Trump, currently the Republican front-runner. Can he make a strong showing in Arkansas and nearby states? Will Huckabee endorse a candidate, and how much weight that might carry?
How many will vote in each party's primary and what might that tell us about what will happen in November? Arkansas primaries are open, meaning no party registration is required to vote, although voters can only vote in one primary. Will some likely to vote Republican in November vote for Sanders in the Democratic primary to make Clinton look weaker? That kind of game-playing is not unknown.
Interestingly, although there are some hotly contested local and legislative races, the only statewide contests drawing much attention are for the "non-partisan" state Supreme Court. And U.S. Sen. John Boozman is expected to have a relatively easy Republican primary win in his re-election bid.
The primary system is imperfect in varied ways, including disproportionate attention given to the voting in Iowa (caucuses) and New Hampshire, neither of which are representative of the broader nation.
However, primaries have become primary in the quest for the presidential nomination. The system works well as an ongoing television show and the numerous debates and town-halls give voters a chance to get better acquainted with the candidates. And with it unlikely that a definitive decision will be made before March 1 (although any predictions are dangerous in this improbable political year), Arkansas and its neighbors could have impact this time.
Commentary on 02/17/2016