The Arkansas Poll came out Thursday. The poll shows some deeper shifts that are much more interesting than the horse race results for elections that will end Tuesday. I'll mention the horse race results farther down today.
Support for allowing undocumented immigrants "to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria like learning English and paying their back taxes" fell by 10 percentage points in this year's poll compared to last year. That's still the option favored by more people than any other, but support for it dropped from 59 percent in 2013 to 49 percent.
The sharp drop in support on this issue is particularly notable because so few other things changed compared to last year, said Janine Parry, director of the poll.
My guess is the rush of children coming across the southern border has something to do with this change, although that's pure speculation on my part. The poll didn't ask respondents for their reasoning, Parry said.
Nonsense about terrorists coming over the Rio Grande doesn't help, either, I'd guess. Why would a terrorist trudge overland? Last time I checked, their preferred travel method was by jet. I guess Ebola fears might weigh on this issue, too, although I'm much more likely to get struck by lightening than to contract Ebola.
The University of Arkansas' annual poll called a random selection of 747 adult state residents. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. It was conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27.
The first thing that popped out to me in reading the results, available at http://reduplicate/7129.php, is the number of people listing the economy as their biggest concern dropped by 12 percentage points compared to last year, from 44 percent to 32. The economy is still the top issue for more people than anything else, but discontent with the government rose from 7 percent to 18 percent.
Only 7 percent of those responding didn't have a specific, over-riding concern. This compares to 24 percent last year. People are mad and they know what they're mad at.
They're not mad at Gov. Mike Beebe. He's leaving office with an amazing 67 percent approval rating. This is doubly amazing when you consider the high frustration level shown with government in general. Beebe's approval rating almost doubles the average of our two U.S. senators and is two and a half times that of the president's.
Most Arkansans still believe the state is headed in the right direction, but the 57 percent who believe that falls far below the 2011 peak of 74 percent. I attribute this to the fact that Beebe is term-limited, and I'm only half joking.
In the horse race results, Republicans are ahead -- by default. Nobody enjoys majority support. Governor's candidate Asa Hutchinson at least hits 50 percent support among very likely voters, the only major statewide candidate mentioned in the poll to do so.
Rep. Tom Cotton leads Sen. Mark Pryor in their U.S. Senate race by 49 percent to 36 percent among very likely voters. That's no big surprise, but also note that Pryor has an abysmal 32 percent approval rating in another question in this poll. It's a good thing for Cotton that "None of the Above" isn't running.
The state minimum wage increase is the only thing on the statewide ballot in this poll that appears to be cruising to a win, with 70 percent support overall and 69 percent among very likely voters.
Independent voters who leaned Republican last year are more likely to call themselves out and out Republicans this year, although that has little practical effect.
The biggest surprise to me in the whole poll is the question that, at this point, matters the least. Hillary Clinton has 47 percent support in a bid for president in 2016 among very likely voters, compared to 38 percent for an unnamed Republican. A lot can change in two years, but I didn't expect a state that's going for Cotton would go for Hillary, even theoretically in a race still two years away. And by about the same margin, too.
There are no surprises in the poll on the liberal/conservative litmus test issues of abortion, guns and gay marriage.
And, in a result that surprises no one and especially not the press, the press isn't a respected profession. It won't be a respected profession until it agrees to pander to one side or the other, and then it will only be respected by that half -- and have no basis for self-respect at all.
DOUG THOMPSON IS A POLITICAL REPORTER AND COLUMNIST FOR NWA MEDIA.
Commentary on 11/02/2014