Continuing urbanization of Northwest Arkansas should mean increasing political clout for the region.
That's not a new development. The region has been growing steadily for decades. Obvious changes in the state's political environment have come with the growth.
Now, with the region projected to hit the 500,000 mark this summer, the potential for the region to exert greater influence will increase as politicians are reminded just how many votes are to be found in these hills and valleys.
The half-million number represents the anticipated population for the Northwest Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Washington, Benton and Madison counties in Arkansas and McDonald County in Missouri.
While those Missourians can't vote in Arkansas elections, the rest of the adult population in this count could.
The question is whether the region's people will capitalize on the opportunity by registering to vote, then actually voting in greater numbers, too.
The potential is particularly significant for the ever-growing Hispanic population to participate more in elections.
Even if turnout patterns continue as they have been, there will be plenty of votes to be mined up here.
You'll start to see the evidence soon.
Once the Republican primary elections gear up, this corner will get more attention than anyone may want from candidates for state office. There are Republican contests for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, state auditor and state treasurer as well as some in-party showdowns for legislative seats.
Democratic primaries are almost nonexistent in the region and state this year, but there are also plenty of Democratic votes to be found in the population, too.
Democratic candidates, including those seeking federal office, will be working the region to turn out any votes they can in November. Those votes will matter then and can add to a candidate's statewide totals.
The best example of that came years ago when Blanche Lincoln won a U.S. Senate seat largely on her showing in Northwest Arkansas. She proved candidates don't have to win these Republican-leaning counties. They just need to amass enough votes to tip the statewide totals in their favor.
From the region's perspective, the votes should return some favor from the successful politicians, perhaps in facilitating road-building or other improvements.
That's the clout Northwest Arkansas needs for the future.
For at least half a century, the region's population jumped with each decennial Census. Growth here was almost always accompanied by declines in the more rural, less prosperous regions of the state.
The reason cited for the shifting population was that people were moving to where the jobs were. Or, they were moving away from places where there were no jobs. It is as true now as it was then.
Whatever brought them here, their numbers allowed the local counties to pick up seats in the state Senate and the House of Representatives. Greater population here, reduced population there triggered significant shifts in legislative district boundaries.
The 2020 Census will certainly bring even more gains for Northwest Arkansas, which is showing greater growth than anywhere else in the state.
The other winners, according to recent numbers from the U.S. Census, are the Jonesboro and Central Arkansas areas.
All these regions are apparently experiencing the rural-to-urban shift in the state's population. And, after the numbers are officially counted again in 2020, the comparative growth of urban Arkansas will be reflected in the next redistricting of the Legislature.
Little Rock and its environs remain the largest population pocket in the state. The metropolitan statistical area that includes Little Rock, North Little Rock and Conway is about half again as large as the Northwest statistical area while the two-county Jonesboro statistical area is roughly a quarter of the population projected here.
More important than their relative size, however, is the potential for future cooperation among these more urban areas when bartering for legislative favor or the attention of state officeholders.
Commentary on 03/30/2014