If ever there were a year for crossover voting, this is it.
Look for even more Democrats to vote this year in the Republican primary, although it isn't necessarily the sort of mischief that used to be associated with crossover voting.
A more practical explanation is at work.
The trend has been obvious in Northwest Arkansas for many years, particularly in Benton County. There, with few Democrats running for local offices, voters have simply opted to vote in the Republican primary whether they were affiliated with the party or not. It was the only way to have a voice in many local elections.
That is true again this year, largely because there just aren't going to be any Democratic contests to keep Democrats voting in their own primary -- not in Benton County and not in Washington County, either.
Arkansas has a open primary system that allows voters to choose in each election year in which primary they will vote. There is no party registration and any voter may switch from one party's primary to the other. The only restriction is that a voter cannot switch to a different party between the primary and a runoff election, if one is held.
The truth is there is precious little competition this year for any of the partisan offices in Benton and Washington counties. What activity exists is in the Republican primary.
Plus, there are significant races for statewide office and for the Legislature on the Republican ballot that will seriously tempt voters of all stripes.
The situation is a recipe for crossover voting, motivated more by the choices available than by any organized effort to manipulate outcomes.
Historically, Republicans seldom had primary elections in Arkansas. And they frequently drew criticism from Democrats who thought Republicans were organizing crossover votes to sway the outcome of Democratic contests.
Arguably, the Republicans would vote for weaker Democrats, hoping to have them face the one and only candidate the Republicans might put up.
The strategy didn't necessarily work. But Republicans had nothing to vote on in their own primary, so some did routinely vote in the Democratic primary.
This year, the Democrats have little reason to vote in their own primary and could be the ones crossing over to vote Republican.
The only contest for Democratic primary voters to decide will be a lop-sided contest for the party's nomination for governor. U.S. Rep. Mike Ross, the clear favorite, drew a late challenge from a Little Rock woman, Lynette "Doc" Bryant.
Meanwhile, Republican primary voters will choose among candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, state auditor and state treasurer.
If there were to be any organized mischief from Democrats, it would likely come in the Republican governor's race. Former U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson is the favorite and the more formidable foe for Democrat Ross. Curtis Coleman, the Little Rock businessman who is opposing Hutchinson for the Republican nomination, would be the beneficiary of a crossover campaign from Democrats.
More than likely, the real impetus for a significant crossover will be the lack of activity on the Democratic ballot.
Besides all those statewide contests, the Republican ballot offers voters a voice in nominations for seven state legislative seats in the two-county area. Some will effectively be elected to the offices in the May 20 primary because they have no Democratic opposition.
Far fewer votes are cast in legislative contests than in statewide races, so crossover Democratic votes could potentially sway results between more and less conservative Republicans in close elections in those districts.
At the county level, too, the only activity is on the Republican ballot in Benton and Washington counties.
Republican primary voters will pick the next Benton County judge. There will be no races for any other countywide offices nor for 13 of 15 Quorum Court seats.
All of those offices will go to unopposed Republicans since nary a Democrat even filed for any Benton County office. And those two contests for Quorum Court will also be decided in the Republican primary.
In Washington County, the Republican primary will decide a nominee for assessor and for two Washington County Quorum Court seats while Democrats have no choices to make on the primary election ballot for countywide office or for Quorum Court.
The only opportunity for either Benton County or Washington County voters to help decide a Democratic primary race is the Ross-Bryant mismatch for the nomination for governor.
That might not hold even the most loyal of Democrats in the party traces on primary day.
Commentary on 03/23/2014