Arkansas prison authorities say the state must consider building a costly new prison, a maximum-security unit that would hold 1,000 inmates and help -- but not solve --a chronic overcrowding problem.
More than 2,400 state inmates are backed up into county jails, which means many of those facilities are also packed to capacity and more.
Something has got to give.
Most likely, that "something" will be state taxpayers as yet another governor and yet another Legislature address the issue next year.
Prison overcrowding is a recurring challenge for state government. The problem is new for Gov.-elect Asa Hutchinson and many in the state Legislature, however, as they begin their new terms.
This prison issue is also just one of many budget-related challenges that will confront the new Republican administration and the Republican-led Legislature.
Back in the summer, state Correction Department officials were making the case for a $100 million facility. And, remember, that construction cost pales compared to the long-term cost of operating a new prison.
More recently, recommendations from the state Department of Community Correction outlined steps that would cost at least another $16 million a year. Those steps are intended to reduce the number of former inmates who return to prison.
Recidivism is always part of the overcrowding problem. Inmates serve their time but re-offend and take up space again. So officials are looking for ways to avoid so many returning inmates.
The steps that have been proposed include hiring additional probation officers, expanding training programs and giving businesses a tax credit for employing ex-offenders.
Ever since the state reformed its parole system, there have been challenges there. This latest report calls for hiring 201 more probation and parole offices, which is intended to ease the workload of the existing force.
Current officers handle about 130 cases each. That can't be effective oversight. More officers, something closer to the national average of 60 parolees per officer, should help dramatically.
The training element is intended to prepare inmates for release and includes a statewide mentoring system for released inmates as well as substance abuse and mental health treatment for them.
The jobs element is intended to encourage employers to hire offenders by providing a tax credit up to $1,000 if they hire high-risk offenders.
Greater state investment in such programs seems likely, especially since criminal justice advocates have long cautioned states that they cannot build themselves out of prison overcrowding problems.
That message was delivered again recently in Northwest Arkansas when mental health specialists, nonprofit directors who work with prison populations and local elected officials gathered to discuss prison issues.
They, too, talked of recidivism and the fact that more than 40 percent of Arkansas inmates were sent back to prison within three years after their release.
While they focused on relieving the caseloads of parole officers, they also encouraged expansion of specialized courts like drug, veteran and mental health courts that address underlying causes for criminal behavior.
Such programs report higher success rates and are arguably less costly than prison but they still cost money and require service providers to meet treatment needs.
If the state wants to rely on such programs, it will have to cough up money to run them. And that means the new governor and the Legislature can't ignore that funding need either.
There is still more spending to do, too.
Remember those prisoners backed up into the jails? Even if the state agrees to build a new prison and slows the recidivism rate, inmates will keep stacking up in the jails for years to come.
The state currently reimburses counties at a rate of $28 per day per inmate, although the counties spend an average of $49 a day on each. The reimbursement rate needs adjusting.
Then there is the fact that the state hasn't really paid the counties all that it owes them. There's an outstanding bill of about $7.7 million due to counties.
Granted, taxpayers are footing both the state and local tax bills but this constant drag on county budgets isn't healthy for them. They, too, have many funding challenges of their own.
Challenges, challenges and more challenges, none of them inexpensive.
Some heavy ciphering must be going on in Hutchinson's transition office as he tries to calculate how to deal with them while trying to meet a campaign promise of an income tax cut.
He can't do it all, although he may try.
BRENDA BLAGG IS A FREELANCE COLUMNIST AND LONGTIME JOURNALIST IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Commentary on 12/17/2014