A recent proposal for an early Southern state presidential primary in 2016 might not get a warm welcome in Arkansas.
This state has been there, done that.
In 2008, Arkansas moved its presidential primary to Feb. 5, trying to beat out other states and gain a bigger voice in the nomination of presidential candidates that year.
The Legislature approved the change in 2005, breaking from traditional timing that placed the presidential primary in Arkansas at the same time as all the other preferential primaries on the Arkansas ballot.
Coincidentally, the 2008 election was when both former First Lady Hillary Clinton and former Gov. Mike Huckabee were on the ballot for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, respectively.
Sure enough, both led the Arkansas balloting in their respective parties, Clinton with 70 percent of the Democratic vote and Huckabee with 60 percent of the Republican vote.
Arkansans may have hoped to boost Arkansas' voice in the 2008 nomination process that year, but many other states had the same idea and pushed their primaries up, too. Twenty-four states, including Arkansas, held their presidential primaries on Feb. 5.
Consequently, the separate early presidential primary didn't draw all that much candidate attention to Arkansas but did cost the state extra money.
Voter turnout in Arkansas improved to 35 percent of registered voters, compared to 22 percent in 2004. But that wasn't reason enough to keep the separate presidential primary.
By 2012, Arkansas reverted to holding its presidential primary at the same time as other in-state primaries.
The May 22 primary saw 58 percent of Arkansas' Democratic primary voters favoring President Barack Obama for renomination and 68 percent of Republican primary voters supporting former Massachusetts' Gov. Mitt Romney. Arkansas fell in line with the established trend.
So, what's up for 2016?
Georgia's secretary of state is promoting the idea of an "SEC" regional primary, encouraging at least some of the states that also play sports in the Southeastern Conference to join together for a March 1 presidential primary.
Brian Kemp, Georgia's Republican secretary of state, intends to schedule his state's primary for March 1 and wants states like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi to follow suit.
While Kemp has authority to set Georgia's primary, it would be up to legislatures in the other states to make the shift.
Tennessee has already set March 1 as its primary day, as have Texas and Florida. Louisiana's is set for March 5 and Alabama's March 8. Arkansas' primary is now set for May 24.
At least nine other states, including Iowa and New Hampshire, have caucuses or primaries before March 1.
Nevertheless, Kemp sees the opportunity for what he considers like-minded, conservative Southern states to get together and influence selection of the Republican nominee in a wide-open contest.
The Democratic presidential primary is still supposed to be Hillary Clinton's to lose, although she has not yet announced her intention to run.
So this decision is more about Republican interests and a Republican-controlled Legislature will make the decision in Arkansas.
Still, there is more to this than just changing a date.
It does cost more to hold a separate presidential primary. Arkansas already has some serious budget challenges to weigh in 2015 and there's no reason to think 2016 will be that much better.
And, of course, in Arkansas there is the chance that both Huckabee and Clinton will be back on the presidential primary ballots, which could lead other candidates to ignore Arkansas because of those candidates' "favorite" status.
For the record, the same situation exists in Texas and Florida because those states have potential favorite sons in the mix for the Republican nomination.
Then there is the possibility that states beyond the "SEC" region will also move their presidential primaries earlier, siphoning away that attention Kemp thinks the Southern states would get.
Kemp may sell his proposal to some of the other Southern states; but, all in all, Arkansas might not benefit enough to justify scheduling its presidential primary on an earlier timetable.
BRENDA BLAGG IS A FREELANCE COLUMNIST AND LONGTIME JOURNALIST IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Commentary on 12/03/2014