North Korean launchpad inactive

SEOUL, South Korea - Satellite images show that North Korea has halted work at a complex believed to have been intended to allow it to launch bigger and longer-range rockets, a Washington-based research organization reported Tuesday.

The organization, the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, and others have been using commercial satellite imagery to monitor the complex, the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground, in northeastern North Korea. They have previously detected the building of a new launching pad, missile assembly building and launch control center that they believe are designed to launch larger rockets capable of flying longer distances and delivering heavier payloads than North Korea’s Unha-3 rocket, which successfullythrust a satellite into orbit in December.

North Korea says it launches rockets for the peaceful purpose of sending scientific satellites into orbit. But Washington sees them as a cover for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could one day strike targets as far away as North America with nuclear warheads.

The institute first noticed that the work at Tonghae stopped at the end of 2012. In its latest update, posted on its website 38 North, it said Tuesday that the construction had not resumed as of late May, although it was not clear whathad caused the seven-month halt.

Even if North Korea resumes work, the lull means that the new projects might not be completed until 2017, a year longer than earlier estimates, it said.

“Initial speculation at the end of 2012 focused on the need for equipment and troops elsewhere to repair damage done by last summer’s typhoons and heavy rains,” it said. “That explanation now seems less plausible given the amount of time that has passed since last year’s rains.”

An alternative explanation is that North Korea has decided that testing conducted at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, in northwestern North Korea, will be sufficient to support its development of larger rockets, the institute said, without citing any evidence to support its theory. North Korea conducted its December rocket launching from the Sohae station.

“Or the stoppage may reflect a decision either to slow or even halt development of larger rockets,” it said.

Such an analysis contradicts recent official pronouncements from North Korea. Despite international criticism and United Nations sanctions, North Korea has vowed to continue to build and launch more powerful rockets.

Again using satellite imagery, 38 North said July 10 that North Korea might have conducted engine tests for a more powerful rocket at the Sohae facility in late March or early April.

Advances in commercial satellite imagery have recently allowed nongovernmental research institutes to monitor North Korea’s nuclear and rocket-launching facilities and provide regular updates on them.