LITTLE ROCK — On an election night when the skies were clear and the humidity was low, I sat on the banks of the Ouachita River in Camden enjoying good company and a meal that featured everything from grilled steaks to fried catfish to alligator sausage. Those with whom I shared this feast were well-read, intelligent people, the kind of folks who are interested in current affairs.
We visited that Tuesday night about everything from higher education to the economy to demographic changes in Arkansas. What we didn’t talk much about was politics, which struck me as strange since it was primary election day. Driving back to Little Rock, I thought about how much things have changed.
I grew up in the “tantamount to” era of Arkansas politics. Winning the Democratic primary was tantamount to election since Republicans just weren’t much of a factor. As a boy with a deep, abiding interest in Arkansas politics, I would beg my father to take me to the Clark County Courthouse on primary night to hear the chairman of the Democratic Party Central Committee read the box-by-box returns. When not at the courthouse, I would be glued to Channel 7 out of Little Rock, watching anchor Steve Barnes and political scientist Jim Ranchino talk about the Democratic primary. KATV would begin its blanket coverage about 7 p.m. and stay on the air until well past midnight. For a young political junkie, it was intoxicating.
These days, Arkansas television stations generally wait until 10 p.m. for primary election coverage. It’s not that Arkansans no longer care about politics. It’s just that the Democratic primary is no longer tantamount to election. I’m beginning to think that winning the Republican primary might soon be tantamount to election in many areas. The changes during the past several years have been nothing short of breathtaking. This is history in the making as we’re living in a true two-party state for the first time in any of our lifetimes.
In a number of counties in the 4th Congressional District, more people voted in the Republican primary than in the Democratic primary. We’re talking about the 4th District, once among the most reliable House districts in the country for Democrats. Consider this: Ouachita County—the place where Democratic U.S. Sen. John L. McClellan once practiced law and where Democratic U.S. Sen. David Pryor grew up—had 1,100 people vote in the GOP primary. There was a time not so long ago when no more than 50 people would vote in a Republican primary there.
What does this portend for November 2012 and November 2014? On the congressional side this November, Republican Reps. Steve Womack in the 3rd District and Tim Griffin in the 2nd District seem safe. Some political observers considered Rick Crawford’s 2010 win in the 1st District a fluke as Crawford became the first Republican to represent the Delta in Congress since Reconstruction. This year’s Democratic primary in the district, though, seemed to lack energy. Now Clark Hall and Scott Ellington will beat up on each other in the runoff campaign while Crawford continues to raise money as only an incumbent can.
Back down in the 4th District, Republican nominee Tom Cotton will continue to rake in funds while state Sen. Gene Jeffress and lawyer Q. Byrum Hurst fight it out in the Democratic runoff. As was the case in the 1st District, there just didn’t seem to be much energy on the part of Democratic voters. Regardless of who wins the Jeffress-Hurst runoff, Cotton will enter the fall campaign as the heavy favorite.
A former Democratic legislator told me on election night that he views Cotton as the rising star in Arkansas politics. He predicted that Cotton will serve one term in Congress and then be elected governor in 2014. I do know this much: There will be far more interest in the 2014 primaries than there were in this year’s primaries. For one thing, U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor is up for re-election. My prediction is that Griffin will win the GOP Senate nomination in two years to challenge Pryor.
With no clear front-runner in the race for governor, one should expect crowded primaries on both sides. On the Republican side, we could see Cotton, Womack, Lt. Gov. Mark Darr, a business leader or two and maybe even an old party warhorse like Asa Hutchinson or Jim Keet on the ballot. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel already appears to be running for governor. Little Rock businessman John Burkhalter will be able to put a lot of his own money into the race. There’s probably a legislator or two who will run on the Democratic side and maybe even a past statewide candidate like Shane Broadway or Bill Halter.
You must go back to 1966 to find a time when Arkansas last had an election for governor with neither an established front-runner nor an incumbent in the race. History was made that year when Winthrop Rockefeller became the first Republican governor since Reconstruction. Now the GOP has a chance to earn a majority in one or both houses of the Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. On the congressional front, if the GOP holds its current seats and picks up the 4th District, the Arkansas delegation will have gone from 5-1 Democratic at the end of 2010 to 5-1 Republican at the start of 2013.
For those of us who grew up in the “tantamount to” era, the pace of political change is amazing. Truly it’s a new day in Arkansas.
—–––––
Freelance columnist Rex Nelson is the president of Arkansas’ Independent Colleges and Universities. He’s also the author of the Southern Fried blog at rexnelsonsouthernfried.com.
Editorial, Pages 17 on 05/30/2012