FAYETTEVILLE — With some political pundits proclaiming the 2012 presidential campaign “officially” under way because both President Barack Obama and some of the Republican hopefuls have declared their intentions, it might be an appropriate moment to size up the political scene.
Two points need to be made before proceeding.
First, we live in the era of the permanent campaign. What is under way now is just a new phase of the continuing campaign. Second, and obviously, with the election more than 16 months away, much can and will change in the coming months.
The proclamation of the campaign’s start was set off not only by indications of who is running, but by some announcements of who isn’t.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee made a dramatic announcement - or about as dramatic as you can be on a Saturday night TV variety show -that he won’t be a contender this time. Early polling of Republican voters showed Huckabee as a leader among possible candidates. Indeed, in a campaign with no strong favorites, it was possible to envision a glide path for Huckabee that might make him the nominee.
His decision, however, was not a big surprise, since he seems content in his role as entertainer/political commentator and enjoys the benefits of a lucrative TV deal, speaking fees and book sales.
Another who likes the payoff of media celebrity, Donald Trump, also announced he was opting out of the GOP race.
Although Trump made a brief splash in the polls and generated massive attention, he flamed out quickly and predictably. His mixture of conspiracy theories and bellicosity had a short shelf life.
While Huckabee and Trump will be on the sidelines, Newton Leroy Gingrich jumped into theRepublican race and in typical Gingrich fashion quickly stirred controversy.
He called Republican budgetmeister Paul Ryan’s plan “right-wing social engineering,” which he said was no more desirable than “left-wing social engineering.”
With his history of slash-and-burn tactics and tendency to sling terms such as socialist and communist when referring to political foes, Gingrich also carries considerable personal baggage.
He is also entangled in some of his earlier positions on health care, treacherous territory in the Republican camp, as Mitt Romney knows all too well. WhileGingrich is indefatigable but erratic, Romney is methodical and yet to strike a charismatic chord.
He can raise money and is well-connected financially, however, and is considered by some to be the frontrunner.
Other Republican aspirants are in various stages of becoming candidates. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, another plodder, hopes to gain strength in Iowa with Huckabee no longer in the field. Ron Paul is in the race again, and Rick Santorum probably. Others such as Michelle Bachman and Mitch Daniels may join in and there are other names not yet and perhaps never familiar. A possible dark horse is John Huntsman, former Utah governor, who received high marks as ambassador to China, but was appointed by Obama and that may disqualify him with some.
Sarah Palin is out there, but the thinking is that she will, like Huckabeeand Trump, follow the money. There’s always the possibility of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie changing his mind and jumping in, or even reconsideration by Huckabee, although that seems unlikely.
One of these Republican hopefuls may eventually catch fire, but right now polling shows 45 percent of Republicans dissatisfied with the candidates who have declared or are thought to be serious about running, up from 33 percent two months ago.
Meanwhile, Obama’s poll numbers are up. A recent poll gives him a 60 percent approval rating and a substantial lead over potential GOP adversaries.
In these fractious time, however, that means little other than that today Obama might win. He undoubtedly has benefited politically from the successful Bin Laden mission. The impact of foreign ventures can be fleeting, however. Just ask the first President Bush. In the aftermathof the Gulf War, his popularity skyrocketed to unprecedented heights. Not many months later he was tripped up by a stumbling economy, Ross Perot and Bill Clinton.
The tomorrows ahead are fraught with difficult problems, many centering around the slow-recovering economy. Pocketbook issues like fuel prices can be politically costly. And though domestic issues often are most influential in presidential elections, there are major international trouble spots. The upheaval in the Middle East could be playing out for months with outcomes unclear.
Continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan will be increasingly controversial.
And Pakistan defines volatility.
What’s clear from all of this is that political fates in the months ahead are highly unpredictable.
HOYT PURVIS IS A JOURNALISM AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS PROFESSOR.
Opinion, Pages 17 on 05/22/2011