LITTLE ROCK — Over the next few weeks, there will be much speculation.
In fact, it has already started on some radio shows and in e-mails to yours truly.
The fact is there is no magic number for John Pelphrey.
There is only a magic athletic director. Jeff Long will determine if Pelphrey returns for a fifth season as the head basketball coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks.
That’s Long’s job. His duty. His responsibility.
Chancellor Dave Gearhart has his back.
Yes, there is a chance that the board of trustees could get involved, like they did with Stan Heath, but most likely it will not come to that.
Long has stated on more than one occasion he wants competitive football and basketball teams (as well as theother sports), and that he believes the University of Arkansas can have them.
Some thought last week Long was digging his heels in and Pelphrey would be back when the head coach did a mini-goodwill press tour, but Pelphrey being on one radio show and Rob Evans on another - both on the same station - doesn’t sound like something Long would suggest.
It sounded more like Pelphrey was trying to do damage control after 48 hours ofexplaining his statement that the Razorbacks had overachieved against LSU. He made a few media folks happy but snubbed the vast majority.
Regardless, victories over LSU and Florida A&M would not sway Long. Those are games you are supposed to win. Losing them could have hurt, but the Hogs need quality victories, and every game remaining - save the trip to Auburn - is quality.
And winnable.
A victory Wednesday against his alma mater, Kentucky, could weigh heavily in Pelphrey’s favor, but that is not a magical game.
Pelphrey needs a strong finish.
Winning the SEC Tournament would almost assure him of another year.
Yet, whatever happens won’t be an easy decision for Long, who will be acting as an administrator and not as a fan of the Hogs or Pelphrey.
It is easy to sit home and say Pelphrey has to go, but it is not so easy to look a guy in the eye and say it.
Especially a guy who is a good husband and father and cares about the community. Pelphrey and his wife Tracy have been involved with helping people from Fayetteville to Little Rock and back.
Yet, his No. 1 priority as an employee of the UA is to win games. Yes, graduating players counts, too, but the list is long of coaches who graduated players but were fired for a lack of victories.
Every major school - and the UA is definitely a major player, or has been - has one goal when basketball season starts: Make the NCAA Tournament.
In the past 12 seasons or so, it may have been a goal, but it was more like a dream than an expectation for the Razorbacks.
Between Pelphrey and Heath, there have been three NCAA Tournament appearances and only one victory, which was with Heath’s players coached by Pelphrey.
That’s simply not good enough, at least not for the majority of the fans who have started to stay away in droves.
The baseball team drew more fans Friday afternoon for its season opener against Delaware State than the basketball team did for its game against Florida A&M on Wednesday night.
That’s simply not good.
So over the course of the next few weeks, much will be cussed and discussed as this basketball season enters the final furlong.
Pelphrey knows he is on the hot seat.
He knows he needs to win, and his players know it, and at this point they have as much to do in securing his future as he does.
Still, in the final analysis it will come down to Jeff Long’s evaluation and where the program is or isn’t after four years under Pelphrey’s leadership.
People can scream for Pelphrey’s head or for him to get another chance, but one man is making the call.
That’s what he’s paid to do, to make a decision as an administrator and not as a fan.
Sports, Pages 23 on 02/20/2011