Just a year ago, it seemed as if U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln might have re-election all but locked up.
There were already signals of unrest among voters nationwide; but Lincoln, a two-term incumbent, had just been named chairman of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee and was building a hefty campaign chest for her re-election. The new chairmanship, her seat on the Senate Finance Committee and all the other advantages of incumbency were working for her.
Plus, none of the announced or anticipated Republican challengers to her were catching fire. There was a growing list, with state Sen. Gilbert Baker of Conway the best known among them.
By mid-December, the list had grown to eight with the addition of Stanley Reed, a Marianna farmer and leader in the agricultural community. But Reed quickly dropped out, citing health reasons.
Lincoln still seemed safe. Then came the health care votes with which she managed to anger both the left and the right.
Sensing her vulnerability and wanting to make an example of her for not supporting what they wanted, big labor and others backed Lt. Gov. Bill Halter’s bid to deny her the Democratic nomination.
And national Republicans recruited the state’s lone GOP congressman, U.S. Rep. John Boozman, to challenge her from the right. Support for him wasso solid that he won a crowded Republican primary without a runoff.
Meanwhile, first in a nasty primary race and a subsequent runoff with Halter, which Lincoln barely survived, millions of dollars were poured into Arkansas to pummel Lincoln.
Boozman, who has doubledigit advantages in most of the publicly reported polls, clearly benefited - so much so that Lincoln recently told a radio reporter that she believes her situation now is a result of the $21 million worth of negative advertising she said was spent against her in the primary.
She’s convinced the general election would look drastically different but for her having to spend so much time, energy and money refuting those claims.
She’s right about the impact.
But this may also be a blessing in disguise for Lincoln, who campaigns now as “one tough lady.”
The Democratic primary so weakened her candidacy that national Republican interests haven’t seen the need to pump big money into this state for Boozman or against her.
Granted, Lincoln hasn’t gotten the kind of money she might have from national Democratic sources either. But she isn’t being subjected to quite the same beatdown she got from Halter and his supporters in the primary.
Boozman’s nice-guy personality precluded too strong an attack from him. But others would certainly have done it, if Lincoln had seemed less vulnerable.
Just look at the Senate races in other states for evidence of what unrestricted campaign spending can bring.
Arkansas has seen some of that, but nothing like what it might have been.
For the record, through it all, these two individuals are the same people they’ve always been.
Boozman is still the quiet conservative who can be relied upon by the Republican leadership, for example, to follow a moratorium against earmarks, even if it costs his own congressional district.
Lincoln is still the moderate Democrat whose conservative leanings frequently frustrate the leadership of her own party, not to mention many rank and file members. She’s also still the incumbent and still has that Agriculture Committee chairmanship working for her.
What’s more, despite expectations to the contrary, there is still a race between these two, dependent mostly on the ground game for voter turnout in a state that can be politically unpredictable.
BRENDA BLAGG IS A COLUMNIST FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MEDIA.
Opinion, Pages 5 on 10/27/2010