COMMENTARY: Lincoln And The Light Brigade

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS — Arkansas Democrats defied the narrative created by national pundits and political insiders for the runoff election for the U.S. Senate nomination.

Blanche Lincoln was seen by those “experts” as an inevitable victim of the antiincumbent sentiment said to be pervading the nation.

Her defeat was supposed to be all the more certain because of the massive influx of money from national labor unions and online political groups, who were confident they would defeat Lincoln. And her opponent, Bill Halter, ran a vigorous and aggressive campaign.

However, the outcome was determined not by national pundits and political players but by Arkansas voters.

Let’s be clear on a couple of points, though.

There is considerable antiincumbent, anti-Washington fervor among the public.

And labor unions are free to spend however they want, although the reported expenditure of $10 million to make an example of Lincoln ranks as one of the worst political investments since John Connally spent $12 million in 1980 to capture one delegate (who happened to be from Arkansas) to the Republican convention in a futile quest for the presidential nomination.

There were several key factors that analysts should have seen as turning the tide for Lincoln, though it was still a close race.

The candidate herself got into a fighting mode, reconnecting with some voters and emphasizing Arkansas themes. Secondly, the impact of Bill Clinton can’t be overstated, though outside observers didn’t fully understand this.

His appearance on her behalf was probably the campaign’s turning point.

It was important not only for Clinton’s influence and energizing effect, but it helped give Lincoln’s street cred with some important segments of the Democratic electorate. Moreover, the former president was able to get across the point about Lincoln being the “poster child” for labor’s determination to teach a lesson. He clarified and emphasized that in a way that was followed up in effective television ads.

There was a predictable backlash against the heavy-handed efforts from national unions. Labor groups had what they considered legitimate grievances against Lincoln, but the bombardment of TV advertising, direct mail and phone calls took the tenor of a vendetta.

Lincoln also benefited from hard-fought runoffs forDemocratic congressional nominations in east and central Arkansas, which helped bring voters out in areas where she had major strength. Interestingly, much of Lincoln’s support came from more urbanized and more liberal areas, though some national liberal groups were targeting her for defeat.

NBC News called Lincoln’s win the “biggest surprise” among elections taking place in various regions of the country.

Those writing Lincoln’s political obituary proved to be wrong, but there are still major questions and uncertainties about her future prospects and the direction of American politics at this tumultuous juncture.

Having survived the Democratic primary, Lincoln now faces a tough general election challenge from Rep. John Boozman, who is giving up his seat in the U.S. House and breezed through the Republican primary without a runoff.

There are several interesting twists here.

Boozman has served in Washington since 2001, so he is something of an incumbent as well. And although he made an impressive showing in the Republican Senate primary and didn’t have to endure a runoff, Lincoln’s fierce runoff fight should actually benefit her. In those final three weeks she established or re-established important contacts around the state while Boozman’s experience and base has been primarily in the 3rd DistrictRepublican stronghold. The runoff also enabled Lincoln to hone her message, better define herself, and gain some needed momentum. Further, Republicans were certain to try to brand Lincoln as a liberal. However, those groups who sought to knock off Lincoln in the primary were opposing her because she wasn’t a liberal or didn’t support some Democratic priorities.

Lincoln positioned herself as a moderate and the question now is whether among the broader electorate there is a place for moderates - in Arkansas and nationally.

And this may be the real issue in national politics.

Are the two major parties going to be almost totally dominated by their more doctrinaire elements?

Centrists are becoming a somewhat extinct species in the Republican Party.

Will Democratic moderates go the way of the Mercury automobile, soon to be discontinued by Ford?

Today’s politics brings to mind Lord Tennyson’s poem, “Charge of the Light Brigade.” There was cannon to the left of them, cannon to the right of them, Tennyson wrote. Today’s centrist politicians have tea parties to the right of them and move-ons to the left of them.Lincoln has made it through the opening skirmish. Can Lincoln and other moderates survive as they seek to charge through the political battlefield of 2010?

HOYT PURVIS IS A JOURNALISM AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS PROFESSOR.