If you're curious about just how much the political landscape has changed in Arkansas, check out the filings for office that closed on Monday.

The shift is plainly apparent, especially in showdowns that were triggered for 2014 races.

Once upon a time, not really all that long ago, a glance at the list would have shown Democratic face-offs for statewide and legislative office one after the other. Republican primaries were few and far between anywhere in Arkansas.

That trend has flip-flopped. There will be only five Democratic primaries in Arkansas while Republicans hold 24 primaries to find their nominees for various offices.

Winning the Democratic primary once meant a near certain win in November. This time, there are plenty of races that will be won totally within Republican ranks.

Filing lists are available online through a "candidate filing" link on the secretary of state's web site (http://www.sos.arkansas.gov). But here's the breakdown, minus the names of the candidates:

For one thing, there are a number of candidates who filed as Libertarian or Green Party representatives. There are Green Party candidates for U.S. Senate and governor and Libertarians for U.S. Senate and all four congressional district seats. Libertarians also seek all seven statewide offices from governor down as well as seven seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives. One Independent filed in a state Senate race.

While someone among them might pull an upset, count them as on the ballot, not necessarily "in" the races.

The real long-term change is most clear in the comparable numbers of Democrats and Republicans filing for federal, statewide and legislative offices. Altogether, 88 Democrats and 132 Republicans filed.

Both parties fielded candidates for all the five federal and seven statewide offices, none of which will be decided until November.

Legislative filings are something else again, with Democrats setting up four primaries and Republicans 23, just for legislative seats.

Of those filing, 35 Republicans drew no opposition while 30 Democrats went unchallenged.

By filing deadline then, individual Republicans effectively secured 29 House seats and six of the Senate seats open this year. Democrats locked down 25 House seats and five Senate seats.

Only 18 of the 35 Senate seats are up for election while all 100 House seats are. So, to begin building what the Legislature will look like in 2015, start with those 17 returning senators. Eleven of them are Republicans, six Democrats.

Things get really busy for Republicans in primaries for 17 nominations for the House of Representatives and four for the state Senate.

Significantly, nine of the House primaries and three of the Senate primaries will determine who gets the seat. There are no candidates from other parties in those 12 districts. Meanwhile, Democrats will lock down only three House seats with their handful of primaries.

So, after all the primaries and a few possible runoffs, how will the Legislature look?

The House will be assured 38 Republicans and 28 Democrats. Although there will still be 34 seats left to fill in the general election, Republicans will need to win in just 13 House districts to hold onto the majority.

The shift is really clear in the Senate, which will have a Republican majority. Period.

Even before the general election, the Senate will be solidly Republican with 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Only four more seats will be determined in November.

After the primaries, nine Republicans and five Democrats will be added to the roster that already has 11 Republican senators and six Democratic senators who weren't up for election this year. The "race" for that majority is over before it started.

While we can't know now all the Republicans who will be there, the majority will be definitely be Republican in the Senate.

Democrats in Arkansas used to count their legislative seats this early in the process, but Republicans are the ones doing so now.

As for the statewide and federal offices, come May 20, Democrats will find themselves in all of one major-office primary, which developed late in the governor's race while Republicans hold primaries for two of the U.S. House of Representatives' seats as well as for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, state auditor and state treasurer.

Primaries will determine the Republican nominee to face off in November against at least a Democrat and a Libertarian and, in the governor's race, a Green Party candidate, too.

That's the ballot picture -- and some results -- to date.

Commentary on 03/05/2014