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Rick Lee’s Oaklawn selections and analysis First post — 12:35 p.m.

by Rick Lee | March 19, 2023 at 2:29 a.m.


MEET 123-422 (29.2%)

LEE'S LOCK Tillis in the second

BEST BET Star of Tomorrow in the fourth

LONG SHOT Hoya Paranoya in the third


****confident choice

***plenty to like

**things to like

*educated guess

1 Purse $28,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $20,000

MENDELSSOHN JOY** was compromised by a slow start and moderate pace in a deceptively good fourth-place sprint, and he does have two-turn experience. PROPELLANT is dropping to the lowest level of his career for top connections, and the likely pacesetter is the one to catch. PERFECT THUNDER appears to be training well up to his debut, and he drew a favorable post position.


8 Mendelssohn JoyAsmussenLitfin7-2

6 PropellantCastilloMaker2-1

1 Perfect ThunderTorresDiodoro5-2

7 Eight StraightBazeBarkley5-1

4 SparkinHarrCates8-1

2 Born On FireBejaranoRobertson12-1

5 Moon Over DubaiArrietaPeitz20-1

3 Double StrikeBowenPuhich20-1

2 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, claiming $8,000

TILLIS**** is dropping to the lowest price of his career, and he has been earning the field's fastest Beyer figures and also receives a positive rider change. SHANGHAI'S DREAM has not raced since September, but he has done his best running at Oaklawn and represents Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. ATRAS possesses good early speed and he's taking a significant drop in class.


8 TillisBejaranoMorse7-5

6 Shanghai's DreamAsmussenAsmussen3-1

2 AtrasSaezHewitt7-2

7 Sahm TequilaGallardoLitfin8-1

4 Baker's ManCabreraLauer12-1

1 Mr FrostTorresMartin12-1

5 Leslie's GoldArrietaLund15-1

3 Bend in the RiverBowenMcKnight15-1

3 Purse $52,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, claiming $50,000

HOYA PARANOYA** has caught a wet track in all three allowance races at the meeting, but he is dropping in class and has done his best racing on fast ground. COSMO is a strong finisher representing the barn of leading trainer Robertino Diodoro. MEGATAP was beaten only two lengths in a return from a layoff, and he possesses good speed and may be sitting on a top effort.


5 Hoya ParanoyaBazePuhich8-1

3 CosmoTorresDiodoro5-2

4 MegatapJordanChleborad3-1

2 RaymondGonzalezBarkley7-2

1 American XperimentSantanaAsmussen4-1

7 League of LegendsCourtFires8-1

6 BrawndoArrietaContreras10-1

4 Purse $28,000, 6 furlongs, fillies, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $20,000

STAR OF TOMORROW*** was forwardly placed before tiring in a two-turn debut over wet footing, but she is cutting back to a sprint distance and is taking a big drop in class. SWEET NELLIE has a series of encouraging works up to her debut, and she is realistically spotted in a $20,000 maiden claimer. TRIBAL SPIRIT finished a competitive third in her last sprint, and she is the one to fear inside the final furlong.


8 Star of TomorrowBazeMason9-2

5 Sweet NellieHarrPuhich4-1

6 Tribal SpiritAsmussenAsmussen3-1

3 Tiz Sweet CandyMedellinMilligan7-2

4 Beer Can LadyMichelJackson5-1

2 Her Name Was LolaJordanJordan10-1

1 Old School FlashCastilloVillafranco10-1

7 Momma MuleTrianaVon Hemel15-1

5 Purse $27,000, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, Arkansas-bred, claiming $12,500

ATTA PARTY** is dropping in price after contesting the pace in a third-place finish, and he prefers a fast track and keeps the leading rider. MIRI A COINCIDENCE lost a late lead in a strong third-place finish at this condition, and the lightly-raced and improving colt switches to a leading rider. LORD M tired over a muddy track when competing in open company, and he is a front-running contender dropping in with state-bred rivals.


10 Atta PartyTorresSilva5-2

6 Miri a CoincidenceArrietaBarkley3-1

4 Lord MCabreraMcKnight4-1

2 Mr. CougarGallardoWestermann8-1

5 Tale of TruthZimmermanDiodoro6-1

11 Traffic ControlSantanaWilson10-1

8 Krusin RocketDe La CruzMartin12-1

7 Morning DriveMichelLauer20-1

3 Super GeekCastilloVillafranco30-1

1 Warning LabelHarrCline30-1

1a BraskaHarrCline30-1

9 BillhillPusacChleborad30-1

6 Purse $42,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $25,000

ALLEGE** has not raced since August, but he closed 2022 on a three-race winning streak and did win a race at a higher class level last winter at Oaklawn. DOUBLY BLESSED broke last of eight when beaten two lengths in a sprint tuneup, and the stake winner has won 4 of 8 races at today's one-mile distance. OFFSHORE AFFAIR is the controlling speed and may steal this if fit in his first race since October.


5 AllegeAsmussenAsmussen3-1

8 Doubly BlessedBowenVance7-2

6 Offshore AffairTorresDiodoro5-2

4 ThundershookArrietaMcKnight5-1

1 Second of JulySantanaGibson6-1

7 Lord DragonBejaranoMoquett8-1

2 Two by TwoGonzalezRosin15-1

3 EisenstaedtBazeLitfin20-1

7 Purse $36,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, starter allowance

GREATHEART*** is dropping in class following two narrow defeats, and the beaten post-time favorite should make amends on a fast track. SAQEEL has a win and a tough-luck loss in two races at the meeting, and he is a major threat if able to races as well on a fast surface. CARNIVORE is a consistently competitive gelding who rarely wins but is often in the exacta or trifecta.


7 GreatheartCabreraHollendorfer9-5

6 SaqeelTorresDiodoro8-5

8 CarnivoreBejaranoKeithan6-1

3 Driven OneWalesMason8-1

2 Charter OakJuarezVance12-1

5 AtkinsCastilloMott20-1

9 Get ThroughArrietaHartman15-1

4 Uncle BerleySantanaAsmussen20-1

1 TreatyBazeHobby30-1

8 Purse $104,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies, 3-year-olds, allowance optional claiming

EFFORTLESSLYELGANT** was a decisive maiden allowance winner on Lasix two races back, and she is back on the medication after faltering without in the GIII Honeybee. STELLAR LILY made every pole a winning one in her first try around two turns, and she may be able to control the pace. TAKE CHARGE BRIANA made a belated rally in the Honeybee, and she is dropping into an entry-level allowance following six consecutive stake races.


2 EffortlesslyegantSantanaCasse2-1

3 Stellar LilyBejaranoMoquett5-2

4 Take Charge BrianaCabreraLukas3-1

8 Goodbye KyleTorresMcPeek12-1

6 BluelightspecialArrietaContreras8-1

9 Midnight HeiressJuarezHollendorfer20-1

5 Watch This MunnyCastilloDixon20-1

7 Beautiful and BoldDe La CruzCompton20-1

1 Key to SuccessBazePuhich20-1

9 Purse $104,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, allowance

CHOCTAW CHARLIE** was an easy maiden and conditioned claiming winner last spring at Oaklawn, and she appears to be sitting on a peak effort following a strong third-place effort. SUMMORYA rallied to second at this class level last month, and the lightly-raced 3-year-old is a likely late danger. TAPIT RIGHT was claimed by the leading stable, and the beaten post-time favorite is capable if new connections can move her up a bit.


9 Choctaw CharlieGonzalezChleborad4-1

7 SummoryaBejaranoMoquett3-1

3 Tapit RightTorresDiodoro7-2

4 Chai TeaHarrCline9-2

6 KantexGarciaMorse8-1

2 Fly Like the WindCabreraCalhoun12-1

1 War MusicMedellinRiecken15-1

5 Mocha KissLeaheyStuart15-1

10 Hamazing LaceJordanRickard20-1

12 Five QueensCastilloSouza20-1

8 Blow Sum SmokeGallardoAltamirano20-1

11 Early DismissalQuinonezWitt30-1

Print Headline: Rick Lee’s Oaklawn selections and analysis First post — 12:35 p.m.


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