FAYETTEVILLE -- Members of the city's Board of Health discussed when the omicron surge may subside and where that would leave the region.
The panel of local physicians and medical administrators met online Wednesday via Zoom. Marti Sharkey, the city's public health officer, said a different plateau has followed each peak in covid-19 cases.
For instance, active cases in Washington County reached 2,465 on Jan. 9, 2021, after which cases dipped and leveled off at around 300 from March to July. Active cases then began to rise again, reaching 2,313 on Aug. 21. After cases subsided, they hung around 500 from October to mid-December, according to data Sharkey collected.
Active cases in the county had the largest peak ever with 8,285 on Saturday. That's more than three times as high as the peaks recorded in previous surges. Active cases on Wednesday were 6,618, according to the Arkansas Department of Health.
"It seems like after every surge, there's a different plateau, a different place we land at, where the active cases are in the community," Sharkey said. "So that's my next big question: How high is that next level going to be? And what continual strain is that going to put on all of us?"
The number of patients with covid-19 at hospitals in Benton and Washington counties reached an all-time high on Monday, with 183, and then again on Tuesday, with 185. Hospitalizations on Wednesday were at 173. The previous all-time high was 173 patients on Aug. 11. Admissions to the Intensive Care Unit, for both covid and noncovid patients, has hovered around 100 for several weeks.
The board considers somewhere around 30 covid patients and below 100 ICU beds in use at regional hospitals as manageable.
The number of new daily cases in the county has fluctuated in recent weeks, reaching as high as 1,365 on Jan. 19. Stephen Boss, professor of environmental dynamics and sustainability at the University of Arkansas, told the board the seven-day average is around 600 or 700 cases in the county. He projected the numbers could last a few more weeks, possibly until the end of February.
Board members hoped the region is nearing a plateau, whatever that may be. Hospitals have been strained with full ICUs, patients being admitted for other chronic health conditions and staff being occupied with administering covid tests or having to stay home after getting the virus, said Lenny Whiteman, vice president of managed care at Washington Regional Medical Center.
"Omicron, it spreads so fast that we've never had this many staff out due to covid," he said. "That's a complicating factor with all the higher admissions."
Health officials have said vaccinated people can still test positive for the virus, but the chances of severe illness or death are reduced. A graphic shown by Gov. Asa Hutchinson at his Tuesday news conference said unvaccinated residents accounted for 74% of cases in the state, 83% of hospitalized patients with covid and 84% of deaths resulting from covid since Feb. 1.
As of Wednesday, 55.3% of 227,307 Washington County residents 5 and older were fully vaccinated, and 17.2% had received booster shots. Another 13.2% were partially immunized, according to the state department of health.
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