Breaking with a trend of low and steady new coronavirus case numbers over the past few weeks, Arkansas' case count rose Wednesday by 192 -- the largest daily increase in almost a month.
The new case total on Wednesday was bigger by 87 than the one a day earlier and by 65 than the one the previous Wednesday.
It was the largest one-day rise since March 24 -- a time when the state's new-case numbers were inflated by a backlog of reports faxed in by providers weeks earlier, during a wave of infections from the omicron variant.
"It seems that we may be at the very starting point of an increase in cases similar to what other areas of the country are dealing with, particularly in the Northeast" in a region that includes New York and New Jersey, State Epidemiologist Mike Cima said Wednesday.
He said a possible culprit is a strain of the omicron subvariant BA.2 that is thought to be even more transmissible than the original BA.2 strain.
According to estimates by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the sublineage known as BA.2.12.1 accounted for 52.3% of the cases last week in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Region 2, made up of New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, up from 36.5% a week earlier.
Nationally, the estimated percentage of cases caused by the strain rose from 11.4% the week ending April 9 to 19% last week.
BA.2.12.1 "seems to be gaining speed nationally, particularly in Region 2," Cima said.
While BA.2.12.1 hasn't yet been found in Arkansas, only a small portion of test samples in Arkansas and elsewhere are sequenced to determine which variant caused an infection.
"Just because we haven't detected it doesn't mean it's not here," Cima said.
Among the 10 Health and Human Services Department regions, the percentage of cases caused by BA.2.12.1 was smallest last week in Region 6, which includes Arkansas along with Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico.
An estimated 1.6% of the cases in the region were caused by BA.2.12.1 last week, up from 0.8% a week earlier.
Cima said gatherings for Easter over this past weekend could also be contributing to Arkansas' uptick.
"It's a little too early to tell, I think," Cima said, adding, however, that it "would be consistent with what we have seen in the past after holidays."
He said the uptick in cases that has occurred in other parts of the country, possibly as a result of BA.2.12.1, has been more gradual than previous waves, such as the ones caused by the original omicron strain and by the delta variant last year.
Hospitalizations nationally have been increasing only slightly so far, he said.
"When cases go up, it is reasonable to think that hospitalizations may fluctuate a bit," Cima said.
"I really do not think that they're going to explode [in Arkansas], just based on what we're seeing elsewhere."
As far as what precautions Arkansans should be taking, he said they should consider information from the Health Department and CDC and "make an informed decision based on all the information."
"There is bountiful information out there that would help individuals make decisions about how to avert risk at their level," Cima said.
"I think if cases continue to increase, people will respond accordingly."
Greene County, which didn't have any new cases on Monday or Tuesday, had 46 on Wednesday, accounting for almost 24% of the statewide increase.
The number of cases in the northeast Arkansas county that were considered active, representing people who have tested positive and are potentially still infectious, rose from just seven Tuesday to 52.
Cima said Health Department officials weren't able to immediately pinpoint a reason for the county's spike.
HOSPITALIZATIONS RISE
After falling a day earlier to a two-year low, the number of people hospitalized in Arkansas with covid-19 rose Wednesday by five, to 51.
Growing for the second day in a row, the number of the state's virus patients who were on ventilators rose by two, to 15.
The number in intensive care, also up for the second straight day, rose by four, to 25.
The state's death toll from the virus, as tracked by the Department of Health, rose by six, to 11,360.
Health Department spokeswoman Danyelle McNeill said all the deaths reported Wednesday happened within the past month.
The average daily increase in the state's case count over a rolling seven-day period rose Wednesday to 86, its highest level since the week ending April 1.
With new cases outpacing recoveries and deaths, the number of cases in the state that were considered active rose by 101, to 1,096, the largest total since April 3.
At its hospitals in Little Rock and Springdale, Arkansas Children's had two covid-19 patients Wednesday, the same number as the previous two days, spokeswoman Hilary DeMillo said.
CASES BY COUNTY
Aside from Greene County, Pulaski County had the most new cases, 32, on Wednesday, followed by Benton County with 17 and Washington County with 11.
The state's cumulative count of cases since March 2020 rose to 834,553.
The Health Department's tally of vaccine doses that had been administered rose by 2,491, the fifth daily increase in a row that was smaller than the one a week earlier.
More than half of the most recent increase was from doses classified on the Health Department dashboard as not having an "available dose number."
That's how the department is listing second booster doses, which were authorized late last month for people who are 50 or older or have compromised immune systems.
The count of doses for people receiving the vaccine for the first time rose by 441, which was less than half the size of the increase in first doses a week earlier.
The average number of total doses administered each day over a rolling seven-day period fell to 2,223, which was down from more than 2,600 a day the previous week.
The average for first doses fell to 322.
According to the CDC, the percentage of Arkansans who had received at least one dose remained Wednesday at 66.5%, and the percentage who had been fully vaccinated remained at 54.3%.
The percentage of those fully vaccinated who had received a booster dose remained at 39.3%.
Among the states and District of Columbia, Arkansas continued to rank 37th in the percentage of its residents who had received at least one dose and 46th, ahead of Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Wyoming and Alabama, in the percentage who were fully vaccinated.
Nationally, 77.4% of people had received at least one dose, and 66% were fully vaccinated.
Of the fully vaccinated population nationally, 45.5% had received a booster dose.