Northwest Arkansas covid cases on the decline, intensive care stays high

Decorated rocks are seen Jan. 27 on the hand rail of a foot bridge on the campus of Washington Regional Medical Center in Fayetteville. Health officials project new daily covid-19 cases will decline, although intensive care at area hospitals remains high.
(File photo/NWA Democrat-Gazette/David Gottschalk)
Decorated rocks are seen Jan. 27 on the hand rail of a foot bridge on the campus of Washington Regional Medical Center in Fayetteville. Health officials project new daily covid-19 cases will decline, although intensive care at area hospitals remains high. (File photo/NWA Democrat-Gazette/David Gottschalk)

It appears Northwest Arkansas did not see a surge in covid-19 cases from gatherings over Labor Day weekend nor recent Razorback football games, and projections predict a decline in new daily cases in the coming months.

However, the region is not out of the woods, health officials say.

Hospitals in Benton and Washington counties were caring for 82 covid-19 patients as of Thursday, according to a news release from Northwest Arkansas Health Care Providers. That's down from 159 such patients on Aug. 23. The high is 173 on Aug. 11.

The number of covid and noncovid patients in intensive care remains high -- 120 on Thursday. The all-time high is 140 on Sept. 8. Providers have been caring for more than 100 patients in intensive care since mid-July.

Ventilator use also has stayed high with 65 in use Thursday. Ventilator use has stayed above 50 patients since July.

Ninety-four percent of hospitalized covid patients in the region were unvaccinated.

The numbers mean hospitals are still pressured even though new daily cases are going down, said Marti Sharkey, Fayetteville's public health officer. The delta variant of covid-19 has affected people more than the previous strain, and younger and healthier people found themselves in the hospital more often, she said.

The cycle of the delta variant may be coming to an end, Sharkey said. Delta surges in India and the United Kingdom lasted about eight weeks before dissipating, she said. July was about eight weeks ago.

The cyclical nature of the variant may explain why the region didn't see a surge in cases from Labor Day weekend and Razorback football games, including the sold-out game against Texas on Sept. 11, Sharkey said.

A new variant could take over once delta subsides, Sharkey said. Cooler temperatures outside mean more people congregating inside. Respiratory viruses such as the novel coronavirus and influenza tend to spread starting in fall. Vaccines keep that from happening, and masking and staying socially distant indoors will help, she said.

"It's too early for us to change any of our behaviors, but it is hopeful that we'll be able to go back to normal sooner," Sharkey said.

More than 60% of residents 12 and older in Benton and Washington counties were at least partially immunized as of Friday, according to Arkansas Department of Health data. In Benton County, 51% of 231,247 residents were fully vaccinated. In Washington County, nearly 52% of residents were fully vaccinated.

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences projects covid-19 cases in the state will decline significantly. The university predicted new daily cases would go down from 2,013 on Sept. 13 to 1,300 on Oct. 12. The findings were released Tuesday.

Resurgence is still a real possibility, Cam Patterson, university chancellor, said in a video posted with the report. Health officials are uncertain of the cause in the declining cases, and the numbers shouldn't serve as a basis for undue optimism, he said.

In Sebastian County, nearly 44% of 107,538 residents 12 and older were fully vaccinated. Another 8.5% were partially immunized. The percentage of fully vaccinated went up about a point from a week ago. The rate has climbed by nearly 20% since July. About 25% of eligible Sebastian County residents were fully vaccinated on July 15.

Active cases in Washington County have hovered around 1,000 since July, Sharkey said. On Friday, Washington County had 850 active cases, according to the state Department of Health. Benton County had 887 active cases, while Sebastian County had 628 active cases.

Covid-19 has killed 1,348 people in the three counties.

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By the numbers

As of Thursday:

Northwest Arkansas hospitals were caring for 82 covid-19 patients. (All-time high: 173 on Aug. 11.) These patients were an average age of 43.

About 94% of those covid-19 patients eligible for the vaccine were not immunized. Those who were vaccinated were elderly or had debilitating health conditions.

There were 120 ICU beds in use supporting patients’ needs. (All-time high: 140 on Sept. 8.) This includes both covid-19 patients and patients hospitalized for other medical needs.

There were 65 ventilators in use. (All-time high: 87 on Sept. 1-2). This includes both covid-19 patients and patients with other medical needs.

Source: Northwest Arkansas Health Care Providers

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