Rick Lee's Oaklawn selections and analysis

FILE — Horses and jockeys break from the starting gate at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs. (Democrat-Gazette file photo)
FILE — Horses and jockeys break from the starting gate at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs. (Democrat-Gazette file photo)

LEE'S LOCK Ocean Breeze in the eighth

BEST BET Urbanite in the fourth

LONG SHOT Stud Puppy in the sixth

THURSDAY'S RESULTS 3-9 (33.3%)

MEET 18-63 (28.6%)

* * * *confident choice

* * * plenty to like

* * things to like

*educated guess

1 Purse $37,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, claiming $30,000

MY BOY GUS set a fast pace and continued clear to the wire in a sharp maiden score at Fair Grounds, and he drew to the outside of the opposing speed. OUTLIER has been one paced in recent allowance races, but he has earned competitive Beyer figures and may benefit from a contentious pace battle. FROSTED PRAYER is back at a preferred distance following a front-running route at Remington, and he is dropping to a proper class level for leading connections.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

3 My Boy Gus;Geroux;Amoss;8-5

5 Outlier;Tohill;Hartman;5-2

4 Frosted Prayer;Santana;Asmussen;5-2

2 Sidetown;Talamo;Morse;5-1

1 Copley;Bowen;Holthus;12-1

6 Citi Charm;Arrieta;Barkley;10-1

2 Purse $24,000, 5 1/2 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $20,000

MISS CHECKMARK rallied to third in her career debut last winter at Oaklawn. She shows improved workouts leading up to her 2021 unveiling and she will be wearing blinkers for the first time. COUVERTURE broke last before rallying to fourth in her only race last season at Oaklawn, and the presence of top rider Ricardo Santana Jr. tips positive stable intentions. LADY ASTRID has a series of encouraging workouts leading up to her career debut, and she did land in a suspect field.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

12 Miss Checkmark;Loveberry;Martin;3-1

14 Couverture;Santana;Moquett;8-1

4 Lady Astrid;Harr;Cline;5-1

7 Hamazing Lace;Hamilton;Mason;8-1

1 Frankies Moonshine;Bowen;Holthus;8-1

3 Thursday Morning;Hisby;Medina;8-1

2 Gold N Sexy;Cabrera;Chleborad;9-2

10 Fancy Blaze;Morales;Calhoun;6-1

6 Hightail Runaway;Quinonez;Jackson;20-1

5 Tuesday;FDe La Cruz;Hornsby;20-1

9 Backgate Belle;Thompson;Prather;8-1

8 Twofoursixbitdolar;Vazquez;Gladd;30-1

11 Little Burrito;Mojica;Moysey;20-1

13 Spot's Maine Girl;Morales;Fires;30-1

3 Purse $22,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $10,000

AMBITIOUSLY PLACED lost a clear lead inside the final furlong in a runner-up finish at Churchill. The likely pacesetter picks up the leading rider, and she is also treated with Lasix for the first time. MISS ALPHA BELLA has finished second in races at Remington and Prairie Meadows. She possesses route speed and can get the distance. LYRICIST had a solid career debut at Indiana, and she may not have cared for the new synthetic surface at Turfway.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

2 Ambitiously Placed;Geroux;Barkley;2-1

1 Miss Alpha Bella;Loveberry;Chleborad;5-2

5 Lyricist;Morales;Matthews;6-1

6 Omi Ten;Cabrera;Garcia;7-2

1a Quiet Surprise;Gonzalez;Jacquot;5-2

3 Jewel Azul;FDe La Cruz;Lukas;9-2

4 Little Girls Rule;Thompson;Smith;10-1

7 Ella's My Girl;Fletcher;Deatherage;30-1

4Purse $27,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, claiming $20,000

*URBANITE finished second in a strong field of conditioned claimers at Churchill, and the consistent runner was a clear two-turn maiden winner last season at Oaklawn. OFF THE MEDS won from the rail and at this claiming price at Canterbury. She is dropping in class following a pair of useful races at Hawthorne. POLAR WIND has been racing competitively at this condition in Southern California, and new trainer Federico Villafranco is having a good meeting.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

9 Urbanite;WDe La Cruz;Cox;4-1

1 Off the Meds;Hamilton;Mason;5-1

12 Polar Wind;Cabrera;Villafranco;9-2

6 Pepper Pike;Santana;Asmussen;3-1

11 Marquee Thunder;Arrieta;Contreras;12-1

7 Have a Plan;Geroux;Amoss;8-1

4 Down Home Kitten;Bowen;Holthus;20-1

8 Revenio;FDe La Cruz;Zito;20-1

3 Gemo Rain;Garcia;Robertson;6-1

2 Not Very Gentle;Morales;Haran;20-1

5 Roar of the Lion;Quinonez;Swearingen;30-1

10 Grand Atlantic;Harr;Cates;30-1

5 Purse $36,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, claiming $40,000

WILD UNION defeated $75,000 maiden-claimers in a one-turn mile just two races back at Churchill, and he is back on dirt after a fourth attempt to win on turf. BOX OF CHOCOLATES has not won a race since 2019, but he owns the field's fastest Beyer figures. He is racing for top trainer Steve Asmussen for the first time. ALL EYES WEST are having blinkers removed after a failed one-race experiment, and a return to the form he showed at Ellis Park will make him difficult to beat.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

2 Wild Union;Geroux;Cox;2-1

3 Box of Chocolates;Santana;Asmussen;5-2

4 All Eyes West;Cohen;Joseph;5-2

5 War Detonator;Cabrera;Barkley;4-1

1 No Shirt No Shoes;WDe La Cruz;Anderson;10-1

6 Hard to Park;Harr;Cline;15-1

6 Purse $30,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $30,000

STUD PUPPY broke poorly in a turf-sprint debut at Churchill and never reached contention. However, his subsequent workouts have been improved and the class dropper is bred to be more effective on dirt. APPRAISAL finished a close third in a one-turn mile at Churchill. He is on Lasix for the first time and shows upbeat recent works. PIZZA CHARLIE was beaten a diminishing neck in a good debut in California, and he is another sporting good local workouts.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

5 Stud Puppy;Quinonez;Von Hemel;10-1

6 Appraisal;Vazquez;Lukas;10-1

8 Pizza Charlie;Cabrera;Sadler;9-5

9 Mega Charlie;Santana;Asmussen;3-1

3 Devil's Tower;Rocco;Ortiz;8-1

2 Skywave;Talamo;Moquett;9-2

1 Roman Pharoah;Cohen;Diodoro;9-2

4 Kissofftheglass;Bridgmohan;Barkley;15-1

7 Firecracker Stand;Eramia;Smith;30-1

7 Purse $84,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, allowance

TEMPT FATE was very good in three races last season at Oaklawn, including a third-place finish in the Rainbow. Moreover, he has bullet works for his return and picks up the leading rider. CAPTAIN DON has not raced since May, but he finished second in the 2020 Rainbow, and he is the one to catch if fit enough. BEBOP SHOES raced competitively at this level last season at Oaklawn, and new trainer Renay Borel has this veteran training smartly for his return.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

8 Tempt Fate;Geroux;Deville;8-1

9 Captain Don;WDe La Cruz;Von Hemel;7-2

6 Bebop Shoes;Cabrera;Borel;5-2

4 Aspen Club;Talamo;Morse;3-1

2 Wasabi Moon;Tohill;Ashauer;30-1

5 Ten Buds;Mojica;Martin;10-1

10 Mrs. Beans;Quinonez;Von Hemel;12-1

13 Sir Brahms;Arrieta;Contreras;15-1

11 Sunday Sermon;Loveberry;Hornsby;12-1

14 Lang's Fir Doll;Thompson;Dixon;30-1

1 Boo Be Right;Rocco;Peitz;10-1

3 Young Bull;Wales;Moysey;20-1

7 Dark Ninja;Hamilton;Swearingen;20-1

12 Smellin Candy;FDe La Cruz;Green;30-1

8 Purse $84,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance

OCEAN BREEZE is a graded stake-placed finisher, who was beaten a nose in his final 2020 race at Churchill, and she has the speed to be in a striking position turning for home. CROWN JEWEL has not raced since July, but she was a 6-length maiden winner in her 2020 debut at Oaklawn, and trainer Steve Asmussen has done little wrong at this meeting. MISTY BLUE defeated $50,000 claimers by 5-widening lengths at Churchill, and her 4-for-8 record at the distance must be respected.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

5 Ocean Breeze;Geroux;Catalano;5-2

1 Crown Jewel;Santana;Asmussen;2-1

3 Misty Blue;Talamo;Maker;6-1

7 Undine;Garcia;Cox;9-2

2 Sugar Love;Cohen;Diodoro;9-2

4 Blinkers;Cabrera;Ortiz;8-1

6 Flashy Biz;Rocco;Hobby;10-1

9 Purse $22,500, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, claiming $10,000

*SYCAMORE RUN contested a fast pace before fading over a muddy track Jan. 24. He is taking a drop in class and figures difficult to catch over fast footing. CRITIC earned competitive Beyer figures while competing against slightly better at Churchill, and he was overmatched on a synthetic surface is his last race at Turfway. REELFOOT tailed off over the summer, but he raced well last season at Oaklawn, and his connections have been spotting horses where they can win.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

13 Sycamore Run;Cabrera;Sharp;9-2

1 Critic;Camacho;Garcia;8-1

7 Reelfoot;Santana;Asmussen;7-2

6 Time Heist;Bowen;Holthus;8-1

8 Perfect Mistake;Talamo;Ortiz;9-2

9 Euroexit;Vazquez;Villafranco;5-2

14 Tapalist;Cohen;Gladd;20-1

2 Church of Many;Morales;Hollendorfer;12-1

3 Chitto;Loveberry;Martin;12-1

11 Boo Reid;FDe La Cruz;Haran;20-1

12 Tough Company;Eramia;Smith;20-1

10 Wings Up;Gonzalez;Morse;30-1

5 Dens D Oro;WDe La Cruz;Von Hemel;6-1

4 It's Bellamy Time;Felix;Rhea;30-1

Exotic possibilities

Urbanite looks like a good horse to key in a fourth-race trifecta. I'll use six horses in the middle and selections two through five in the third spot. The sixth race begins a Pick-4 and spreading out is advised in a contentious race. I believe the seventh race comes down to my top three selections, and the eighth race between Crown Jewel and Ocean Breeze. The ninth is competitive and spreading out in hopes of a big number seems wise.

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