Overall population growth in Northwest Arkansas is large but not evenly distributed, census shows

Northwest Arkansas' rapid growth leaves the rest of the state behind -- with portions within Northwest Arkansas lagging too, U.S. Census results show.

Siloam Springs grew almost 15% to 17,287 residents since the last census in 2010, just-released 2020 census figures show. Yet the city is now smaller in population than Centerton, another Benton County town. Centerton almost doubled its population from 9,515 in 2010 to 17,792 in 2020.

Benton County's total population rose 28.5% from 2010, census figures show. Yet only five of the county's 19 cities and towns matched that rate. Rogers, the county's biggest city, grew just shy of 25%. Three of the county's smaller towns lost population.

Washington County's population rose by 21.1%. Almost half that growth -- 20,369 out of a total of 42,806 -- was in Fayetteville alone. Springdale accounted for most of the rest.

Census figures mean more than bragging rights.

Benton County's countywide sales taxes, for instance, are divvied by population between the unincorporated county and its incorporated cities. Those percentages are set every 10 years, after each U.S. census. Centerton's share will jump from 4.3% to 6.3%. Siloam Springs' share will fall from 6.8% to 6.1%, according to Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission estimates based on census figures.

The population of unincorporated Benton and Washington counties is going up. Yet the two county governments will see their percentage of county sales tax revenues go down.

The full impact of the census numbers on tax distribution won't be known until the state treasurer's office certifies its calculations, said Jeff Hawkins, executive director of the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission.

Public officials already know, at least approximately, what the impact will be.

"Probably, I would imagine, about $750,000 to $1 million" a year in revenue loss to Washington County from sales tax distribution and other population-related revenue sources such as state turnback revenue, said County Judge Joseph Wood.

The county is growing and taxable property values are rising, census figures and other, county records show. Unincorporated Washington County grew in population from 37,350 to 49,497, census records show. The county should be able to accommodate the loss in sales tax revenue with the help of cities paying for county services such as the county jail, Wood said.

Total Washington County population went up 21% from 203,065 in 2010 to 245,871 in 2020, census figures show. Fayetteville took over as Arkansas' second-largest city by passing Fort Smith. Fayetteville had 93,949 residents to Fort Smith's 89,142. Springdale followed at 84,161.

Benton County was up to 284,333 residents in 2020 compared to 221,339 in 2010, a 28% increase. The number living in unincorporated areas of the county rose from 42,483 to 44,795.

The county has received 19.1% of sales tax distribution since 2010, but that will drop to 15.75%, according to the census.

Justice of the Peace Ken Farmer expects the impact on operations will be minimal.

"County leaders anticipated the loss of revenue and prepared the budget for 2021 with that in mind," Farmer said.

A couple of events benefited the county, Farmer said. Sales tax collection has been strong this year and the census data was delayed, giving the county about six months of a higher-than-expected percentage of collection.

The delay in the census numbers provided the county with about $450,000 in additional revenue in 2021, Comptroller Brenda Peacock said.

The winner is: Cave Springs

Cave Springs' population grew 218% from 1,729 to 5,495 residents over the last 10 years. The surge makes Cave Springs a city of the first class and the fastest growing town in the region. By Arkansas Code, any city with more than 2,500 residents can be a city of the first class and any city with more than 5,000 must be.

First-class cities have different rules compared to second-class cities and unincorporated towns, according to the Arkansas Municipal League. For example, expenses over $20,000 must be bid unless waived by the city council and the city attorney must be elected to a four-year term.

Cities with fewer than 50,000 residents may have two council members per ward -- elected either at large, by ward, or a combination of both -- to two-year terms. Voters may approve staggered, four-year terms, according to the Municipal League.

Cave Springs' growth can be attributed to many factors, Mayor Randall Noblett said.

The city had several subdivisions approved with infrastructure installed at the time of the 2008 housing market crash. Most of the growth in subdivisions was built to order, so there were few unfinished or vacant homes.

"Since 2010, as the housing market recovered, we had a large volume of lots, with infrastructure in place, ready and available for building," he said.

Safewise.com, for the second consecutive year, named Cave Springs the safest city in Arkansas for 2021. And Niche.com this year named it the best place in America to buy a house.

Cave Springs has 1,873 housing units, according to census data.

Other growth factors include the city property tax -- 2.75 mills -- being the lowest in the immediate area, Noblett said. Cave Springs is centrally located, near modern amenities and maintains a small-town feeling, he said.

Noblett sees challenges ahead.

"As a city, we must stay proactive in response to growing public safety and infrastructure needs, while preparing for transition to a city of the first class," he said. "We are currently building a new and modern fire station that should be opening next year. We are also expanding to the Northwest Arkansas Conservation Authority for sewer treatment and extending a 12-inch water line through a growth area to our west.

"We have expanded the Police Department and implemented a maintenance and repair program for the streets. It is important that we stay focused on the growth and take care of opportunities, so they never become problems."

Springdale count could be low

The census appears to under-count Springdale's population, Hawkins said.

Springdale was 2,833 people behind Fayetteville in 2010, census figures show. The gap widened to 6,733 in 2020. The gap seems unlikely and widening that much seems less plausible, Hawkins said, considering the development he has seen in Springdale over the past two decades.

"I think there was an under-count of the minorities in Springdale," he said. The under-counting of minorities, which includes the Spanish-speaking and Marshallese residents of Springdale, is a historic problem in U.S. Census counts despite ongoing efforts to correct it, he said.

Efforts of the Trump administration to get a citizenship question added to the census were overturned in federal court, but the attention those battles received and the administration's efforts to add the question could have lowered the response rate among Spanish speakers in Springdale, Hawkins said.

Springdale made a strong effort to reach the city's minorities, said Mireya Reith, director of the immigrants rights group Arkansas United. Even a greatly improved outreach effort could still have left some section of that population uncounted, considering the history of the census nationwide, she said.

If Springdale's minorities were under-counted, then other cities' minority communities were under-counted, Reith said. The Census Bureau is still calculating demographic information, she said. Her group and others around the state will examine those numbers closely. It will soon be apparent statewide if there is a trend of under-counting minorities, she said.

Bill Rogers, president of the Springdale Chamber of Commerce, agreed with Hawkins that it does not seem likely Fayetteville's growth -- while impressive -- outpaced Springdale's in the last 10 years. He estimates his city should have passed Fort Smith's total also.

"Any reasonable review of the census data released to this point shows it's not what it was expected to be," Rogers said.

"We don't know what effect the covid pandemic had on the accuracy of this count," Rogers said. "Remember that when the census count started, our minority population was the first and hardest hit by the disease. They were just trying to stay alive."

They may have been less willing to open their doors to census workers, he said.

Superfayifragilisticexpialidocious

The place Hawkins worried most about being under-counted wound up growing by 20,000 residents -- Fayetteville.

U.S. Census Bureau leaders openly worried about what effect the covid pandemic would have on the tally in university towns with students leaving campuses to learn remotely. The University of Arkansas worked well with city staff to count every single student who could be counted, Fayetteville Mayor Lioneld Jordan said Friday. He praised the effort of Linda DeBerry, the Fayetteville communications project manager who oversaw the city's cooperation with the university.

The student count was only part of the city's growth though, said Jordan and Fayetteville Chamber of Commerce President Steve Clark.

"Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious," Clark said when asked what it was like to now be chamber president in the state's second-largest city.

"We've benefited from being in the region," Clark said of Northwest Arkansas and the cities in it. "We all play well together."

People moving into the region and Fayetteville in particular is always cited as a factor in the region's and the city's growth, and rightly so, Clark said. A high growth rate also shows people like to stay, he said.

"They aren't just moving here to get a job then moving on," Clark said. "They like living here, and that's a result in Fayetteville of some of the amenities we've invested in: trails, parks, cultural attractions and other things. The investments paid off."

Clark and Jordan both said Fayetteville is often ridiculed or criticized -- or both -- for its codes, requirements and restrictions. Those guidelines have helped make the city one that people want to live in, they said.

Both Clark and Jordan also mentioned the town's welcoming community.

"People are treated equally and fairly whatever their religion, the color of their skin and whoever they love," Clark said. "It doesn't matter here who your daddy was or what school you went to. Here it's: Do you have a skill? Do you have a passion? Will you share?"

Booming Bentonville

Bentonville's population went from 35,301 to 54,164 -- a growth rate of 53%. No other city in Northwest Arkansas with 10,000 or more population had a growth rate half that high except Fayetteville at 28%, census figures show.

The business and cultural growth of the city spurred much of the population growth, local leaders said. Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art, the Momentary and the Scott Family Amazeum all opened since the 2010 census. Work has started on the new Walmart Home Office campus.

Walmart heiress Alice Walton announced establishment of the Whole Health Institute in January 2020. It will be on the Crystal Bridges campus.

"Bentonville has a strong focus on economics, safety, service and quality-of-life factors that tend to drive the desire to live, work and play in our city," Mayor Stephanie Orman said. The people set the atmosphere for what Bentonville is and will be for residents, workforce and visitors, she said.

The 2020 census population numbers were within about 600 of the internal count from the city Planning Department, Orman said, so the count appears accurate.

Jake Newell, a developer in Bentonville, said the opening of Crystal Bridges in November 2011 was one catalyst to the city's growth over the last 10 years.

"It has been amazing to watch from then until now," he said. "It seems I am blown away about every 12 months."

People have moved to the city from states such as Colorado and Utah just because of the city's extensive biking trails, Newell said.

"I am not surprised at all because of the quality of life investments made by the Walton Family Foundation," Newell said of the growth. "What we have going on here is so special."

Amanda Deegan moved to Bentonville from the Washington, D.C., area in 2016. She said wasn't surprised by the population surge in the city.

"This is a phenomenal place to move to," she said. "There are the amenities. It is such a great place to raise a family. I have fallen in love with the area."

Deegan, who lives downtown, uses the trails to exercise. She said she likes how walkable the city is.

"The whole vibe of the area is so welcoming," she said.

Bentonville issued 5,424 residential building permits that totaled 9,385 housing units with a total value of about $1.8 billion from 2010 to 2020. There were 453 new commercial permits worth more than $1.1 billion in that same time span, according to Annette Brightwell, permit administrator in city Building and Fire Safety.

"Growing demands for public services and infrastructure costs will continue to be a challenge," Orman said. "We are working hard every day to plan for the growth in a responsible, transparent and accountable manner."

The Bentonville School District's enrollment has increased 33% since 2010, from 13,530 students to 17,970 students. The district has built several new schools during the past decade, including Bentonville West High School in Centerton.

Centerton's population grew 87% over the last decade from 9,515 to 17,792 residents. The opening of Bentonville West High School in 2016 was big for Centerton because it started a housing boom, especially on the north side of town near the school, Mayor Bill Edwards said.

"I feel a lot of the growth in our area is due to the entire Northwest Arkansas area growing as a whole," Edwards said. "One thing Centerton offers is a wide range of housing opportunities. We also have a lot of land to offer at a reasonable price."