ISIS' fate not tied to leader's

Militant group still a threat after al-Baghdadi’s death

With the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a U.S. raid in northern Syria this weekend the militant group has suffered a serious setback. But it is not an insurmountable blow to the group.

Cells affiliated with or linked to the Islamic State have persisted in South Asia, Africa and other parts of the Middle East. Though inspired by the Islamic State those groups have operated largely independent of the militant network, which was based out of Syria and Iraq, and are expected to continue to push ahead with plots and propaganda efforts.

One key question will be to what extent global affiliates of the Islamic State will remain loyal to a network that has lost all the territory it once held. These groups' loyalty may differ from country to country.

The Philippines emerged as a hot spot in the fight against the Islamic State, after extremists aligned with the group launched a battle for the city of Marawi in 2017. For months, the Philippine military tried to gain back ground, with aid from the United States and other countries. More than 1,000 people were killed -- a figure that includes militants, soldiers and civilians, the military said.

But amid stalling progress in rebuilding the area, Islamic State-linked groups in the country -- which has seen an influx of fighters from other parts of the world -- are feared to be on the advance again. Earlier this year, Islamic State outlets claimed responsibility for the bombing of a Philippine cathedral.

There have also been persistent concerns over Islamic State-linked militants in India, in part fueled by the group's propaganda. In April, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka, in which more than 250 people were killed. In May, an Islamic State propaganda outlet claimed that the group had established a "province" in India and was behind a recent attack on Indian troops in Kashmir.

But in both cases, analysts raised serious doubts about the group's capabilities to plot attacks of the scale of the Easter Sunday bombings or to claim territory in the region in the same way as it had done in Syria and Iraq.

So far, the Islamic State's presence in India has been fairly limited, including in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, which has been plagued by a decades-long militancy.

"There are some boys over there who jump up every so often and wave [an Islamic State] flag," Ajai Sahni, a terrorism expert and executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi, told my colleagues earlier this year. "That's just an effort to get attention."

The only official Islamic State affiliate in South Asia is in Afghanistan, known as Islamic State Khorasan, with eastern Afghanistan as its stronghold. For more than five years, its militants have at times competed with and at times cooperated with the Taliban.

Its fighters have launched deadly attacks, mainly against Afghan Shiites. In August, the group asserted responsibility for a suicide bombing at a Kabul wedding in which more than 60 people were killed.

In Somalia, the Islamic State emerged after some militants broke away from al-Shabab, an al-Qaida-linked group, starting in 2015. Its presence has persisted, despite its rivalry with al-Shabab and despite pressure from the Somali government. More recently, Islamic State efforts to radicalize youths in neighboring Ethiopia have raised concerns.

Security analysts also worry that Islamic State-linked groups, along with militants linked to al-Qaida, may be attempting a novel approach to gain a greater foothold in West Africa. After deliberately provoking feuds among different ethnic groups, the militants systematically offer to protect victims of the conflict they're stoking.

Meanwhile, farther to the north, Islamic State-linked militants have wreaked havoc in Libya.

The country's political instability, the "rampant availability of weaponry" there since the 2011 revolt, and "local grievances" were among the factors that have contributed to the Islamic State's presence in the country, terrorism researcher Inga Kristina Trauthig wrote in a paper for the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation earlier this year.

Islamic State militants' presence in the country has become a particular concern for Western security agencies because of "Libya's status as a key transit country for migration to Europe," Trauthig wrote. As a result, the group may be able to "infiltrate the migrant pathways into Europe and exploit this illegal entry point in order to enable [radicalized] individuals to perpetrate attacks in Europe on its behalf or engage in other subversive activities, such as distribution of propaganda or collection of funds," she concluded.

While the Islamic State has been in retreat in Syria and Iraq, it continues to have a presence in war-torn Yemen. Recent strikes appear to have diminished the foothold of the Islamic State and al-Qaida in the region, but both groups continue to exploit the country's chaos.

And, the group's propaganda continues to attract recruits in the West and can still spur former fighters who have returned to their countries of origin into action.

It remains unclear how many former Islamic State fighters escaped Kurdish prisons in northern Syria after President Donald Trump recently announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region.

But European nations fear that the escaped fighters -- many originally from Western countries -- could eventually return to Europe, where courts have often struggled to convict them.

A Section on 10/29/2019

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