In the midst of this malodorous political season, I am often asked how this current period will be viewed and remembered in history and what the longer-term effects may be.
We often look at historical landmarks to guide us in attempting to understand how we got to where we are now and where we may be headed in the future.
We are at a time when we can draw upon video and online documentation to provide sources of historic information, though respecting the corresponding caution about accuracy and bias.
As we were reminded in the recent baseball World Series, the home team doesn't always win and what appears highly predictable may not prove to be -- otherwise the Houston Astros rather than the Washington Nationals would be the champions.
We frequently look at history in terms of seismic occurrences, and our remembrances are stirred as we associate them with particular anniversaries or key dates.
Forty years ago, in November 1979, Iranian militants seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, resulting in a 444-day "hostage crisis," with 52 Americans held captive. This put Iran very much in the center of American foreign policy. Less than a year earlier, I had stayed at the embassy when traveling with and serving as adviser to the Senate majority leader, so these events and the images of the blind-folded Americans being marched through the Embassy grounds were particularly vivid.
Before the hostage crisis, events in Iran had become increasingly chaotic, and the shah had left Iran in January 1979, never to return. The United States had a history of close relations with Iran, particularly during the Nixon administration, and continuing with Jimmy Carter's presidency, despite the mounting dissatisfaction within Iran and the shah's authoritarian rule.
Although he was known as a champion of human rights, Carter remained committed to the "special relationship" between the two countries. On a visit to Iran on New Year's Eve 1977, Carter made a statement that would later haunt him: "Iran under the great leadership of the shah is an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world." Within a year, the Islamic revolution had taken control in Iran.
Foreign policy issues or significant international events don't always have major impact on U.S. presidential politics. However, in this case, many saw Carter as seriously damaged in his effort for a second term by the events in Iran and the failure to deal successfully with the hostage issue.
Today, Iran remains a significant factor in U.S. policy, with President Trump bearing down with hostile and threatening rhetoric on Iran and unwilling to recognize the "nuclear deal" with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration and other world powers in 2015.
Iran has launched a new generation of advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium, the latest in a series of violations of the nuclear agreement. On the 40th anniversary of the embassy takeover, Iran pulled further away from the nuclear deal by linking the doubling of its centrifuges to Trump's decision to withdraw from the agreement last year. Iran has also announced discovery of vast new oil resources, making the country less vulnerable to U.S. sanctions.
Iran remains a part of our politics today and is an issue that could preoccupy American policymakers.
Another historic event we have been memorializing was the fall of the Berlin Wall 30 years ago in November 1989. The surprising construction of the wall began in 1961, and I first saw it as a student visiting Berlin in 1962. A number of factors, including the collapse of communist East Germany, contributed to the demise of the divided city. Over the years in subsequent visits, I saw the wall become a fixture on the international landscape. Several American presidents are credited with helping to bring down the wall with their words, notably Kennedy and Reagan with inspirational oratory, although it was Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev who played a central role.
The point is that few foresaw the end of the wall coming when it did. It was highly consequential and symbolized the end of the Cold War. The after-effects are still evident in today's united Germany and the eastern sector still trails the west in many respects.
Obviously, there have been other momentous international developments in recent decades, none more significant in this country than the 9/11 terrorist attacks, with considerable ramifications in the Middle East as well. One flash point could be Saudi Arabia, with which Trump wants a special relationship, although the Saudis are laden with potentially explosive issues.
While some flash points might have been foreseeable, others not so much. Who might have predicted, for example that Ukraine would become a primary factor in U.S. politics? For the moment Ukraine, little known to most Americans, is a dominant topic. Who knows where this may lead us? In a campaign noteworthy for its coarseness and disregard for truth, it has already had significant consequences. Republicans maintain that Democrats are making the Ukraine controversy a partisan political issue as the impeachment inquiry is moving into a new phase with public hearings. Republicans have thus far remained solidly behind Trump on the issue of abuse of power and whether his actions in dealing with Ukraine raised questions about legality and appropriateness.
Today, Ukraine; tomorrow, who knows where?
The mixture of politics and foreign policy can be volatile.
Don't be surprised if we see more international or foreign policy surprises in this campaign season.
Commentary on 11/13/2019