FIRST POST — 1:30 P.M.
LEE’S LOCK Moonlight Train in the fifth
BEST BET Arrival in the first
LONG SHOT Grahamstan in the fourth
SATURDAY’S RESULTS 3-9 (33.3 percent)
MEET 36-117 (30.8 percent)
****confident choice
***plenty to like
**things to like
*educated guess
1 Purse $35,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races, claiming $40,000
****ARRIVAL is dropping into a conditioned-claimer after competitive races at Fair Grounds and Churchill. He has route speed and represents a high percentage stable. LAST BAD HABIT was forwardly placed in a second-place finish at Fair Grounds, and his Beyer figures are strong for the level. Several lackluster subsequent works give the edge to the top selection. DREAM BABY DREAM finished second in the 2018 Sunland Derby before a one-paced effort in the Arkansas Derby.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
2 Arrival;Cohen;Casse;9-5
5 Last Bad Habit;Court;Stall;2-1
4 Dream Baby Dream;Wethey;Young;10-1
3 Long Gray Line;Santana;Asmussen;9-2
7 Daaher’s Success;Eramia;Trout;6-1
1 On Patrol;Thompson;Vance;8-1
6 Hard to Park;Harr;Cline;15-1
2 Purse $22,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $6,250
***SERIOUS I CANDY had blinkers removed and responded with a determined victory Feb. 1. The Oaklawn horse-for-course is wisely spotted at a lower price, and she keeps the leading rider. MISS PLACED PLAN was compromised by a sluggish start and wide trip when beaten 3 lengths, and she figures to move forward for a winning team. MY MYSTERY gave way after being pressured through a fast pace in her return to Oaklawn, and she is likely to improve with a kinder pace.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
7 Serious I Candy;Santana;Barkley;8-5
3 Miss Placed Plan;Vazquez;Villafranco;4-1
9 My Mystery;Morales;Ortiz;6-1
5 Nicoles Classygirl;Sanjur;Mullins;5-1
8 Broadway Sticker;Wethey;Young;10-1
1 Liam’s World;Court;Dixon;15-1
4 Misty Journey;Canchari;Martin;8-1
2 Cinema Doll;Borel;Brennan;20-1
6 Super Bowl Girl;Birzer;Donaldson;20-1
3 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $12,500
***ROCKPORT KAT was beaten 1 length in a similar field on opening weekend, and he was claimed by leading trainer Steve Asmussen. The gelding beats these with an effort like the one he produced in the Silver Goblin on Nov. 16 at Remington. FLASHY INDIAN posted a mild upset by defeating the top selection and 10 others Jan. 25. He likes this track and was also claimed by a winning stable. BAJAN CASH was overmatched in his 2019 debut, but he won his previous race for a claiming price at Remington. One of his better races will put him close at the wire.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
3 Rockport Kat;Santana;Asmussen;5-1
5 Flashy Indian;Cohen;Broberg;5-2
9 Bajan Cash;Eramia;Martin;10-1
7 Karma Delight;Lara;Holthus;9-2
1 Istillgotit;Cabrera;Hartman;7-2
6 Vacanza;Canchari;Cox;12-1
4 Tiz Showbiz;Ortiz;Ortiz;10-1
8 Distorted Ransom;Felix;Kordenbrock;8-1
2 Purely Given;Sanjur;Cristel;15-1
4 Purse $83,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden special weight
**GRAHAMSTAN is an unraced 4-year-old with several strong stamina-building gate works, and he showed speed in works last summer at Arlington. BEBOP SHOES flashed talent in a pair of starts in 2018, and the quick gelding has worked smartly since arriving in Hot Springs. CALLE PATRON has not raced in 12 months, but he has competitive Beyer figures. He is another training like a returnee ready to upset.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
2 Grahamstan;Canchari;Swearingen;12-1
1 Bebop Shoes;Court;Fires;6-1
12 Calle Patron;Felix;Gonzalez;10-1
9 Hamazing Vision;Santana;Hornsby;8-1
7 Tapit Star;WDe La Cruz;McBride;8-1
4 East Moon Lake;Birzer;Roberts;4-1
3 Destinedtobeastar;Cabrera;Dixon;5-1
8 Crow Mountain;Quinonez;Pish;9-2
14 Leo Del Reo;Bridgmohan;Mason;8-1
10 Officer Sid;Vazquez;Morse;15-1
5 Rusty Cage;Loveberry;Witt;12-1
6 Daddy’s Angel;Fuentes;Prather;15-1
13 Fire To;Birzer;Chleborad;20-1
11 Pearlthirtyeight;Morales;Nicks;20-1
5 Purse $84,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies and mares, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming
****MOONLIGHT TRAIN finished her Remington Park meet by crushing second-level allowance rivals in a fast clocking, and he is spotted to win a third straight by a top trainer-owner team. DANCING BELLE defeated maiden allowance rivals just two races back at Del Mar, and she returns to the main track after a disappointing try on turf. RUN BELLA RUN followed a clear maiden allowance victory with a second-place finish at this level at Remington, and her local breezes are encouraging.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
5 Moonlight Train;Cohen;Broberg;9-5
6 Dancing Belle;Eramia;Desormeaux;7-2
2 Run Bella Run;McMahon;Caster;7-2
1 Trueamericanbeauty;WDe La Cruz;Contreras;3-1
4 Silvera;Bridgmohan;Mason;8-1
3 Banshee Birdie;Vazquez;Wiggins;10-1
6 Purse $35,000, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, claiming $30,000
**SHE’S SO FINE finished 11th in a turf stake at Gulfstream, but she won her two previous dirt races at Belmont and Monmouth Park. The top money earner picks up a leading rider. GLAMORIZED set a contested pace in a third-place finish at Keeneland. She is dropping in price, and her local works are sharp. RUBY SIOUX finished second in a second-level allowance at Delta, and she got a confidence boost when the winner moved up and won again.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
4 She’s So Fine;Cohen;Diodoro;7-2
8 Glamorized;Canchari;Robertson;5-1
6 Ruby Sioux;Bridgmohan;Amoss;4-1
2 Cowgirl Callie;Ulloa;Bahena;8-1
1 California Breeze;Vazquez;Villafranco;6-1
3 Triple Kapalua;Santana;Hiles;8-1
10 Evening Tide;Valdivia;Forster;6-1
9 Served Cold;Thompson;Vance;10-1
5 Holdthatlove;Birzer;Chleborad;12-1
7 Mostly Awesome;Eramia;Martin;20-1
7 Purse $35,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up who have never won three races, claiming $30,000
**HEIDI’S WISH has not raced since June, but she showed terrific early speed in a maiden allowance win last season at Oaklawn. She is training like a filly fit and ready to contend. GOOD MOVE began her career last winter with consecutive wins at Oaklawn, but she has been a three-time beaten favorite in subsequent races. One must figure out if she is an underlay or a horse-for-course. DILLY DALLY DARBY crossed the wire first in two conditioned-claiming races at Woodbine, and she may improve in her first race for trainer Norman McKnight.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
2 Heidi’s Wish;Canchari;Robertson;6-1
6 Good Move;Santana;Cox;3-1
1 Dilly Dally Darby;Cohen;McKnight;7-2
7 Shabang Baby;FDe La Cruz;Martin;15-1
3 Fashion Rose;Quinonez;Von Hemel;9-2
4 Acorn Street;Vazquez;Villafranco;12-1
1a Arrowsphere;Mojica;Diodoro;7-2
10 She’s a Lucky One;Birzer;Anderson;8-1
8 Sophie’s Angel;Sanjur;Puhl;20-1
5 I Think I Got This;Meche;Petalino;15-1
11 Bella Moon;Eramia;Sims;12-1
9 Foxy Mischief;Court;Hiles;15-1
8 Purse $84,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies, 3-year-olds, allowance optional claiming
**MOTION EMOTION set a fast pace in winning a “key” maiden sprint. She had a swift subsequent breeze, and she is bred to carry her speed at least this far. OFF TOPIC ran down nine rivals in a two-turn maiden win at Gulfstream Park, and note trainer Todd Pletcher won with four-of-seven shippers into Oaklawn in 2018. ULELE tracked a slow pace before drawing clear in a 4-length maiden victory, and she should benefit from a race over the track and an inside post.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
3 Motion Emotion;Court;Van Berg;5-1
4 Off Topic;Velazquez;Pletcher;7-2
1 Ulele;FDe La Cruz;Cox;5-2
9 Bella Alicita;Ortiz;Asmussen;3-1
6 Shaharazad;Eramia;Peitz;10-1
8 Merada;Santana;Asmussen;8-1
2 Arch Avenue;Borel;Barkley;12-1
7 Beautiful Tale;Cohen;Stewart;15-1
5 Full of Grace;Sanjur;Robertson;30-1
9 Purse $85,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, allowance optional claiming
***SNAPPER SINCLAIR has led into the stretch in consecutive fourth-place stake finishes at Fair Grounds. He has earned the fastest Beyer figures, and he is taking a significant drop in class. LOCAL HERO is a stake-placed runner who ships from Gulfstream on the heels of a second-place finish at this condition, and he recorded a bullet 5-furlong work Feb. 10 at Oaklawn. ROCKY TOUGH circled rivals on the second turn and finished well to be third best in his local debut, and the in-form late runner should have an honest pace to run at.
PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS
7 Snapper Sinclair;Santana;Asmussen;2-1
2 Local Hero;Ortiz;Fawkes;7-2
1 Rocky Tough;Cohen;Diodoro;6-1
3 The Money Dance;Vazquez;Lauer;6-1
5 Altito;Elliott;Vance;12-1
12 Hollywood Critic;Thompson;Vance;10-1
1a Shut the Box;Mojica;Diodoro;6-1
9 Run Away;Bridgmohan;Mason;15-1
10 Gettysburg;FDe La Cruz;Hartman;15-1
6 Strong Yen;Cabrera;Moquett;15-1
4 Catdaddy;Birzer;Petalino;20-1
8 Chantmeupbaby;Johnson;Hartlage;30-1
11 Nottoway;WDe La Cruz;Van Meter;20-1
EXOTIC POSSIBILITIES
The third race begins a 50-cent Pick-3, and three contenders emerge as a must use. The fourth race may be the most competitive state-bred field in recent memory, therefore spreading out in search of an upset winner is recommended. The fifth race has a possible single in Moonlight Train. Snapper Sinclair is a good horse to put on top in ninth-race trifectas, and as usual I recommend spreading out in the middle and limiting the third spot for logical contenders.