First, he says he will: President Trump, imposing heavy tariffs on China trade.
Then he says he won't: The president delays imposing much of those planned tariffs.
First, Rep. Rashida Tlaib said she would make a trip to Israel on a fact-finding mission, with Israel saying she and her colleague, Rep. Ilhan Omar, would be welcomed, despite their strong criticism of Israel's policies and their support of a pro-Palestinian boycott movement.
Then Israel reversed its position, saying the two Muslim members of Congress won't be welcomed. Apparently, this reversal was influenced by intervention from President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- a U.S. president pressuring Israel to deny entry to Tlaib and Omar, two duly elected members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Although Israel said it won't allow the controversial legislators to visit Israel and the West Bank, the Israeli government reversed again and eventually said it would grant a request allowing Tlaib to see her family, including her 90-year -old grandmother "on humanitarian grounds." However, Tlaib won't make the visit, she says, because of "oppressive conditions. Tlaib said Israel's decision to admit her for humanitarian reasons was an attempt to silence and humiliate her.
Trump has waged a running battle of words with the two first-term House members, making them a steady target for his attacks. Barring U.S. officials from a country that receives billions in U.S. aid certainly constitutes a mixed message. The scandal-plagued Netanyahu is in the midst of a rough re-election fight and his willingness to bring Trump into that is another element of controversy.
Barring Tlaib and Omar brought quick criticism from a spectrum of American political figures, including some staunch supporters and pro-Israel groups. Many of them strongly disagree with Tlaib and Omar on major issues, but believe Israel should have invited them to see the region's complex realities for themselves.
Trump congratulated Netanyahu for the ban and appeared to take credit. He tweeted that if Israel allowed Tlaib and Omar in, it would "show great weakness." Asked whether he had influenced Netanyahu, Trump said: "I don't want to comment about who I spoke to, but I think my social media statement speaks for itself."
We know that Trump is a masterful subject changer and in recent times he has deftly moved focus from one issue to another, re-directing media and political heat. How about the idea of buying Greenland? That certainly got some attention. And consider these cases:
• Following a pattern seen in the aftermath of previous mass shootings, after the recent massacres in El Paso and Dayton, Trump and others initially emphasized the "importance" of "meaningful background checks" on gun sales. Similar pronouncements had been heard after earlier shootings. However, as days passed, the emphasis on background checks began to fade and instead we got, if anything, more generalities about "mental health."
• An ongoing and especially instructive case is the federal budget deficit. Many commentators and political figures have made criticism of the huge and increasing deficits the centerpiece of their platforms -- pledging to do something to bring deficits under control. However, when time comes to take meaningful action to trim the deficits, suddenly they aren't that important, as we have seen in recent action -- or inaction -- in Washington. The talk of a balanced-budget constitutional amendment has become a hollow joke. Right-wing commentator Rush Limbaugh spent much of the time of the Obama administration lamenting the deficit. However, with the deficit continuing to climb under Trump, now it doesn't seem to matter much and is not necessarily a sign of economic Armageddon.
• Let's move on to a current highly consequential concern -- the trade war with China and economic volatility. Remember that Trump famously tweeted trade wars are good and easy to win. In fact, trade wars are neither good nor easy to win. We saw this last week after Trump announced that a trade deal would strengthen protections for U.S. intellectual property, increasingly open Chinese markets to U.S. businesses and lead China to purchase large quantities of American energy and agricultural goods. Reaching an agreement on these points has hardly been easy.
Then came the Christmas complication. Trump, who risked being labeled as the grinch who stole Christmas, announced unexpectedly that new tariffs on many Chinese goods, including cellphones, laptop computers and toys, won't be put in place until after the beginning of the Christmas shopping season, acknowledging the impact that a protracted trade war with Beijing could have in this country. "We're doing this for the Christmas season," Trump said. "Just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers."
This was followed by a demonstration of the volatility that characterizes today's financial markets. First, we saw market indicators bounce upward with the announced delay on tariffs -- regaining some losses after previous U.S. announcements imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $300 billion in Chinese imports on top of 25 percent tariffs already in place on $250 billion in imports. These gyrations were followed by a steep drop in stocks, so steep it led to concerns a recession might be on the horizon, although Trump and administration officials insist that is not the case.
Trump's political fate is closely linked to the state of the economy -- and to what he will and won't do, including what approach he will take in dealing with other nations at a time of mixed messages and financial jitters. It won't be easy.
Commentary on 08/21/2019