Political pontification and analysis is a lot like what a television weather forecaster does: There's a lot of room to get it wrong, and so many influences at play that nobody expects anyone to get it right all the time.
But here's a stab at a few thoughts:
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What did voters in Arkansas House District 84 communicate when they elected political newbie Denise Garner, a Democrat, to replace four-term Republican state Rep. Charlie Collins in that Fayetteville area contest?
They would rather have a Democrat who will struggle to accomplish much in the Legislature more than they wanted a member of the House majority who stopped listening to his constituents.
Ignore whether you agreed or disagreed with Collins on the issues. He was an effective legislator at the state Capitol and would wield far more influence in the next two-year cycle than Garner will be able to. He was strategic and intelligent. He could aggressively and logically defend his positions, something several others who represent Arkansans in the General Assembly find either challenging or believe it to be unnecessary. He could play the necessary political "game" to pursue what he wanted.
He was always confident in his capabilities. In this year's race, that confidence appeared to reach the point of palpable arrogance, whether he intended to appear that way or not.
In the end, he got what he wanted -- a campus concealed carry law -- that a lot of folks from his district did not want and implored him to abandon. And he paid the price politically. Voters instead chose a Democrat who won't be able to advance much in the GOP-heavy General Assembly. They might have reasoned that having an influential, effective lawmaker in the majority party isn't a great deal if he's pushing for policies they find counterproductive.
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In Washington County, the Quorum Court shifted less red, toward more a shade of purple. The Quorum Court has been split 10-5 in terms of Republicans and Democrats. Come January, that split moves to 8-7, still with a Republican majority. If you prefer a GOP-laden Quorum Court, Benton County is your La La Land. Out of 15 justice of the peace positions, zero are held by Democrats or anyone other party.
Legislative races in Benton County also reflected the GOP's strength there. It's fascinating that a conscientious representative like Springdale's Jeff Williams, who worked hard to know and represent his district, can be defeated by a Democrat, but some GOP lawmakers in Benton County can virtually recline in an idealogical La-Z-Boy and Democratic candidates working their posteriors off can barely move the needle.
That's not an argument for more Democrats in Benton County; it's an argument for lawmakers who work hard to earn the privilege of representing Arkansans.
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As opposed as I was to the casino amendment, I had a feeling it would pass handily. To their credit, the advocates for Issue 4 put together what is probably the least offensive constitutional amendment for casinos Arkansans have seen. Voters in the past have rejected some doozies, including amendments that would have written private business monopolies into the Constitution.
I still don't much care for casino gambling as economic development because it sucks money out of people who can use it more effectively in their lives than playing blackjack, spinning the wheels of a slot machine or betting for (or against, perhaps) the Razorbacks. Casinos won't transform Arkansas in a positive way and they aren't a path toward Arkansas improving its economic fortunes. It will make a few people rich, though -- namely, the people who own the casinos and the people who are paid to lobby for them.
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And finally, here's a sure-thing bet: Arkansans will be dropping their hard-earned cash at casino gaming tables long before the state figures out how to make medical marijuana available to those wagering the drug will help them battle health issues.
Commentary on 11/11/2018