Gas prices still heading south

High supply, oil slump leave room to fall, say analysts

Niki Bruner pumps gas Wednesday at a Love’s station in North Little Rock.
Niki Bruner pumps gas Wednesday at a Love’s station in North Little Rock.

Retail gasoline prices have declined for 24 straight days, and consumers paid some of the cheapest gasoline prices for Independence Day since 2005, according to AAA.

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NWA Democrat-Gazette

Gasoline prices at the Murphy Express on West Wedington Drive in Fayetteville have fallen to $1.89 per gallon Wednesday. Prices have been getting lower in most areas across Northwest Arkansas.

The national average of gasoline has dropped 10 cents in the past month to $2.26 a gallon Wednesday. In Arkansas, the average was $2.05 a gallon, down 8 cents since last month, according to the auto club.

American motorists, galvanized by cheap gasoline prices, have taken to the roads in record numbers this year. About 43 million Americans traveled by car during the July Fourth holiday weekend, according to AAA.

Their hankering for the fuel is being fed by an overabundance of supply -- an equation that is now threatening to thwart the recent recovery in the global oil market.

"Gasoline inventories are really high, even though people were thinking that this year, with low gas prices and a good economy, we would see a lot of driving and it would put the market back in balance -- and it hasn't," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc.

Oil prices have rallied since dropping below $30 a barrel earlier this year on expectations that the global glut is declining.

On Wednesday, crude prices fell early in the day before rebounding. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.8 percent to $47.43 a barrel in New York, and Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.8 percent to $48.80 a barrel in London.

Concerns about the economic consequences of Britain's vote to leave the European Union have weighed on oil recently, resulting in crude moving closely with other markets since the referendum.

However, the surplus of gasoline in the United States also soon could put pressure on oil prices.

The strong demand has not been enough to curb gasoline supply and push up prices. The reason there is so much gasoline supply is because refineries are running hard, churning out more fuel than normal.

For American drivers, abundance of gasoline is lowering prices at the pump.

Many states, including Arkansas, soon should see prices dip below $2 a gallon, if they haven't already, said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for gasbuddy.com, which operates a price-tracking website.

He said gasoline prices will continue to drop after the summer driving season ends after Labor Day.

Gasoline demand typically falls after Labor Day, and this year it could be exacerbated by the gas surplus.

As a result, refineries are likely to reduce output, Kloza said. The drop in gas production would lead to more crude remaining on an already oversupplied market and ultimately lower oil prices.

"It's why I think the crude oil market will have another cup of coffee in the $30s," Kloza said. "I think there's another chapter and it's a fairly ugly chapter for crude-oil investors."

A Section on 07/07/2016

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