MIAMI -- The relief of escaping the NBA draft lottery this season hardly will have the Miami Heat as disinterested bystanders Tuesday.
At stake? Potentially their playoff future. At the least, the path to higher ground in the Eastern Conference.
Already without a pick in either round of the June 21 draft and nominally competitive in their return to the playoffs, the Heat could -- and almost assuredly will -- find themselves with even more ground to make up following the random-but-weighted drawing.
Because the rich -- in this case, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers -- could get even richer, despite their success this postseason.
That has the 76ers and Celtics following the bouncing balls of the Los Angeles Lakers, and has the Cavaliers as big fans of the lottery combinations of the Brooklyn Nets.
For Philadelphia and Boston, it will be a case of again facing off, in the wake of the Celtics eliminating the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
As the result of previous trades, the Lakers' lottery pick will go to either Philadelphia or Boston. The Celtics will get the pick if it winds up at No. 2 or No. 3. It will go to the 76ers it if lands at any other spot -- including No. 1.
Most likely, that Lakers' pick will wind up as seeded at No. 10, with an 87 percent chance of doing so, thereby being claimed by the 76ers. There also is a 1.1 percent chance of the 76ers claiming it at No. 1. There is a combined 2.9 percent chance of the Celtics winding up with the Lakers' pick at No. 2 or 3.
Considering the depth of youthful talent possessed by both Philadelphia and Boston, one of the two is going to either take another significant stride into the future -- or land an attractive trade chip (did someone say Kawhi Leonard?).
Then there is the Nets' first-round pick owned by the Cavaliers, having acquired it in the Kyrie Irving trade to Boston. While there is a 73 percent chance of it remaining as seeded at No. 8, there also is a 9.9 percent chance of it winding up among the first three selections.
The last time the Cavaliers won the lottery, in 2014 as the No. 9 seed, when they had just a 1.7 percent chance of landing that top pick, they flipped the selection of Andrew Wiggins into the trade for Kevin Love.
For those who forget, the night the Cavaliers won the 2014 lottery, on a night LeBron James was winning a Heat playoff game in Indiana, speculation began of the lottery luck opening the door for James' eventual return to Cleveland. This time, such Cavaliers lottery luck could be an enticement for James to stay in Cleveland, either as a young running mate or again as a trade chip for more immediate help.
And then there is one more case where lottery luck could potentially change the immediate face of future East playoff races.
While the Detroit Pistons were viewed as mortgaging their future with their midseason trade with the Los Angeles Clippers for Blake Griffin, the Pistons would keep their 2018 first-round pick if it ascends from their No. 12 seed to one of the first three selections (the pick is Top 4 protected, but Detroit can only jump into the top three selection due to the lottery format). The Pistons have a 2.5 percent chance of making such a leap.
While those odds are long, add a top-three talent to Griffin, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson -- or shuffle some of those components in a trade -- and the Pistons could quickly move into a competitive position in the East.
As for the East teams holding prime real estate in the lottery due to their own failings, it is doubtful that a single lottery selection dramatically changes the outlook for the Atlanta Hawks (No. 4 seed), Orlando Magic (No. 5) or Chicago Bulls (No. 6).
But put the likes of Deandre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley (or players they could be dealt for) on the 76ers, Celtics, Cavaliers or even Pistons, and that uphill climb faced by the Heat could become far steeper than it already stands.
Sports on 05/14/2018