The race for the Democratic nomination for Congress from the 2nd District is between a young man and his target.
It's between state Rep. Clarke Tucker of Little Rock, anointed from Washington as the Democrats' preferred agent to go against French Hill, and a runoff.
Will the young Democratic lawyer swamp his opponents by getting more than 50 percent--more than the three of them put together--in the preferential primary May 22? Will he thus barrel full-speed ahead to the general election with whatever momentum might be available to a Democrat in contemporary Arkansas?
Or will he come up a tad short in the first go-round--getting 46 percent, or 49, maybe--and confront a requirement to stand on the ballot again three weeks later, the second time not against the vague generic field but against one specific human challenger, the distant second-place finisher, a sudden recipient of voter focus, presenting a newly singular contrast?
That's not an inconsequential question. Most likely, Tucker would win such a runoff. But just as all athletic contests are about matchups, all political races are about the specific and peculiar dynamics.
Here's what I mean about matchups and dynamics: Hillary Clinton might have beaten Joe Biden in a Democratic presidential primary. But Biden might more likely have defeated Donald Trump in the general election.
So, matchups and dynamics could make the difference between a good and decent leader and the one we now have.
In this first go-round, Tucker is pitted against three vague rivals representing collectively an unabashed liberalism. He has more money. He has more advertising. He has more government experience. He has more political polish. He worries Republicans more than the others, though not yet terribly.
A runoff would amount to a three-week overtime, man-to-man or man-to-woman, between one passionately progressive outsider and one politician-as-usual trying to finesse issues for the general election at the behest of the national Democratic Party.
Into this narrative comes Talk Business and Politics and Hendrix College, partners in political polling with a solid performance record. They made calls last week to filter down to 629 likely Democratic primary voters within this 2nd District. They supplemented their usual automated calling with live calls to cell phones, to try to get a fuller and more accurate sample from cell-phone users.
They produced an interesting sample in terms of gender and geography. Sixty-two percent of the polled respondents screened out as Democratic voters were women. Nearly two-thirds of the filtered sample lived in Pulaski County.
That might sound dubious unless you keep in mind the callers were screening for Democrats. Most of a Democratic primary vote in the 2nd District will come from the more populated and liberal Pulaski, not red Saline, or red Faulkner, or red White.
And while there may not be a strong general election gender gap in Arkansas, it's logical that a Democratic primary in Central Arkansas would draw more women than men--although I'll admit that 62-38 ... well, I can't decide whether it surprises or instructs me.
And here's how the poll came out. Tucker had 41 percent. Teacher and women's march organizer Gwen Combs had 11. Teacher and government-reform advocate Paul Spencer had 10 percent. Jonathan Dunkley, director of operations at the Clinton School of Public Service, had 6 percent. The undecided group was vast--32 percent.
So, it'll play out from now until May 22 one of these ways:
• Inertia will prevail with Tucker on TV more than the others and no challenger distinguishing himself or herself, in which case Tucker will garner maybe 55 percent or more and win without a runoff.
• One or more of the others--Combs, maybe, with women's votes--will hit Tucker as a Washington insider and begin to make inroads, restyling the race as not merely Tucker against his target, but Tucker against both himself and an emerging foe among the three, thus limiting his take from the undecided to the point that he'll struggle to get to 50 in the preferential primary.
Do those still undecided at this point settle passively on the existing inertia or do they, in their active deciding, change the dynamic?
That's what passes for election drama in 2018 for Arkansas Democrats.
The first voting results posted on primary night will be from early voting in Pulaski County. Those returns will be dumped in minutes after the polls close. I'd predict that they would establish a trend except that I suspect, in this instance, and in this dynamic, they'll tell the outcome. Not foretell. Tell.
I tend to think Tucker will hit his target and settle things without a runoff. I'm not sure any of the three others possesses the resources or pizzazz to say otherwise.
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John Brummett, whose column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, is a member of the Arkansas Writers' Hall of Fame. Email him at [email protected]. Read his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.
Editorial on 05/08/2018