There is much optimism in the hold where Bashar al-Assad presides today, as hidden and probably underground as it is. Which is to say there is a lot of pessimism for the rebels fighting his regime in Syria, and, more broadly, for justice and karma. The strongman of Syria might even peek his head into the sunlight soon, if his generals and bodyguards allow.
Some spokesflacks for the several rebel groups might deny it, but the ragtag and disparate outfits are on the run. The last dispatches from the front(s) say that some insurgent groups are negotiating with the Russians for safe passage out of places like eastern Ghouta, one of the spots of fighting closest to the capital. When the Russians are your safe out, things aren't going well.
Reuters says President Assad is on the "cusp of his biggest victory over the rebels in more than a year." Under the watchful eye and tender mercies of the Russians, reports say that long lines of buses are carrying rebels and their families north, away from the Syria government forces. Lord have mercy on them, for the Assad regime will not. And no telling how long the Russian "protection" will last.
As all this was going on, the Holocaust Memorial Museum in this country issued its newest report on Syria and the outrages that continue there. That outfit knows what genocide is, and is determined to scream bloody murder when it happens.
The arm of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum that handles this sort of thing is called the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide. The group makes what it calls Bearing Witness trips around the world on occasion, for sometimes it's all the rest of us can do: bear witness, as the Good Book says. (Dante left those who never took sides in this life outside the gates of hell proper. Those who, while they were alive, never saw evil and called it evil, and never saw good and called it good, were left outside in no-man's hell, such as it was, to be chased by stinging bugs. Maybe the poet didn't have enough respect for those dastards to give them a special place of their own in the Other Place.)
The center sent some of its people on another Bearing Witness trip to Syria in January, and their report makes it clear that they don't think the death and destruction is at an end. In fact, the report says now that armed fighters are fleeing, regular folks might come to even more harm. The regime might try to take revenge for the civil war, and even use atrocities to convince the population that the rebel leaders can't help them:
"At a moment when Assad is brutally regaining control of opposition-held areas and the international community speaks of an end to fighting and to future stabilization and reconciliation, the worst may be yet to come for Syrian civilians. There is no indication that Assad perceives any consequences for, or a credible deterrent to, the ongoing commission of atrocities. Thus far it appears that no government or international organization has been able or willing to stop him. In an environment that he regards as permissive, he will continue to target civilians with impunity until he has achieved and sustained his goal of holding onto power or is stopped. The regime's allies--Russia, Iran, and Iranian affiliated militia--each commit atrocities and have their own interests motivating their involvement."
And most of the atlas shrugs. Again, the world dithers in the face of mass atrocities. Where have we heard that before? Maybe the folks at the Holocaust Memorial Museum could explain.
What's next? The planners in Damascus aren't saying publicly, but the writers of the Simon-Skjodt Center's report have a good guess: Next stop, now that eastern Ghouta has been quieted, is Idlib, a region in the northern part of the country that's still mostly in opposition hands.
Northwestern Syria, where the next focus will likely be, is home to a few groups that will be recognizable to readers of Arkansas' Newspaper. The Syrian Emergency Task Force, with offices in central Arkansas, has established a school and a women's center in that part of Syria. They bear witness, too. And more.
But there is more that the world can do, if it only would. Reuters also reported on Monday afternoon that the Commission of Inquiry on Syria--a UN prosecutorial body--has amassed an "overwhelming" amount of witness statements, videos and other testimony documenting atrocities there. To one day be used if the thugs (on many sides) are ever brought to justice. It can be done. Genocide has been prosecuted before, when the world finally stirred.
Once again, the folks at the museum could explain it all. Unlike much of the world, they remember.
Editorial on 03/28/2018