Report: Growth continues in Northwest Arkansas

Newcomers propel NWA growth
Newcomers propel NWA growth

Newcomers from around the country and world are propelling Northwest Arkansas's growth to a larger and larger degree, newly released population estimates show.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported this week the four-county Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metropolitan statistical area added roughly 12,000 people from mid-2016 to mid-2017, or almost 34 people per day. It's the same growth rate by percentage as in the previous two years and only slightly higher than the four years before that, according to the new estimates.

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The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers area was the 14th-fastest growing metro area in the United States in 2017, up from 22nd the previous year.

What has changed is the role of migration in the increase. Northwest Arkansas welcomed almost 8,400 net new people from 2016 to 2017, most of them from within the country. That figure outnumbered local births by almost 900 and rose 64 percent since 2013. If local deaths are counted against births, migration from elsewhere accounted for two-thirds of 2017's growth.

These new arrivals have included people recruited to corporate headquarters, others who come for work at food production plants and minority families reuniting or seeking educational opportunities, according to researchers, civic leaders and many of the newcomers themselves.

They're likely the only way the region could grow as it has, said Mervin Jebaraj, director of the University of Arkansas' Center for Business and Economic Research in Fayetteville. Young families already here couldn't have children fast enough.

Most are probably coming for jobs they've lined up rather than transplanting and hunting for work after they get here, Jebaraj added. He said they help draw money into attractive amenities such as the Razorback Greenway, parks or arts and cultural venues.

"New ideas and new people is a good thing, but it's also a little expensive to convince people to move here," Jebaraj said. On the other hand, those investments help keep locals from leaving instead, and everyone gets to enjoy them. "We're happy to have them."

The population estimates suggest several long-running challenges for the region will continue. School districts, particularly in Springdale and Rogers, have expanded English Language Learner programs for immigrant students and created programs to help their parents navigate the education system, for instance. Elected leaders for the districts and local governments so far don't reflect the racial and ethnic diversity of their communities.

The nonprofit Northwest Arkansas Council, which works with local government and business to try to improve the area's economy and quality of life, started a project last year called WelcomeNWA to help all of the new people. Margot Lemaster directs the project and said it aims to help newcomers from a neighboring state or the other side of the globe settle in.

For instance, local governments might be able to make changes to make the process of moving in or participating in the government understandable for people who are used to other places or speak other languages, Lemaster said. WelcomeNWA is in the process of assessing the area's needs and strengths and should have a concrete plan by the summer.

"We want to make sure that we can attract people coming from anywhere in the world, and that we can retain people, too," Lemaster said, noting businesses, churches, nonprofits and other groups are interested and involved in the project's goals. Northwest Arkansas has the advantage of fostering that kind of cooperation in the first place, she added.

While net migration is up, estimated international immigration specifically to Northwest Arkansas essentially held steady from 2016 to 2017 after several years of increases. Statistics can fluctuate on their own over time, but the trend is similarly nationally. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security reported slightly fewer new legal permanent residents in fiscal 2017 after several years on the rise.

Two years out from the next full Census, demographic and economic experts said they anticipate population changes that would alter political boundaries and potentially suggest changing priorities for the state.

Since 2010 -- and even before, experts say -- most metropolitan areas in Arkansas and across the United States have added to their populations, while about half of micropolitan areas in Arkansas and across the U.S. have shrunk.

That's been seen in counties, too.

From 2016 to 2017, 40 of Arkansas' 75 counties shrunk. But together those counties' populations made up only 806,346 estimated people in 2017. In the state's 35 counties showing growth, the total population was estimated at 2,197,933.

Benton County grew 3.57 percent from 2016 to 2017, capping a population increase of 15 percent since 2010, from an estimated 231,564 people in 2010 to an estimated 266,300 people in 2017. Chicot County in southeast Arkansas shrunk 3.19 percent percent from 2016 to 2017, part of an overall population decrease of 9.86 percent since 2010, from an estimated 11,800 people in 2010 to an estimated 10,636 people in 2017

Arkansas' total estimated population in 2017 was 3,004,279, according to the data, up from 2,988,599 in 2016 and from 2,910,236 in 2010, increases of 0.5 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. That's driven in about equal parts by natural increase and migration, according to the Census' rough estimations of those categories.

The Jonesboro area in northeast Arkansas was the second-fastest growing metro in the state from 2016 to 2017 and from 2010 to 2017, growing 1.14 percent from 2016 and 8.26 percent since 2010. It now has an estimated 131,269 people, up from 121,255 estimated in 2010.

Arkansas State University, hospitals and factories are expanding, said Bill Campbell, a spokesman for the city. The city is also expanding amenities of its own, including Craighead Park and Miracle League Park for people with disabilities.

The Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro area was the state's third-fastest growing metro area from 2016 to 2017 and from 2010 to 2017. Home to the state capital, numerous hospitals, universities and corporations, the area grew mostly because of the birth rate, according to Census estimates.

In the Pine Bluff metropolitan area, 1,633 more people left the city in the last year than moved to it. That's par for the course in the Delta town, where the Census Bureau estimated the number of births in 2017 slightly outpaced the number of deaths and a handful more international migrants moved in than left. The area hasn't recovered from a loss of manufacturing plants.

Pine Bluff was the only one among Arkansas' seven metropolitan areas to shrink in 2017.

The total estimated population in the United States rose from 323,627,251 in 2016 to 325,696,622 in 2017, an increase of 0.6 percent. It rose from 309,022,505 in 2010, an increase of 5.4 percent.

The Dallas-Forth Worth metroplex was the nation's fastest-growing area in 2017, increasing by about 146,000 people. Six of the 10 counties that gained the most people in 2017 were in Texas -- four in the Dallas area, San Antonio's Bexar County and Houston's Harris County.

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A map showing population change by county

NW News on 03/22/2018

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