Rick Lee Oaklawn Park selections and analysis

FIRST POST — 1:30 P.M.

THURSDAY'S RESULTS 3-9 (33.3 percent)

MEET 87-245 (35.4 percent)

LEE'S LOCK Ravens Reflection in the ninth

BEST BET Far Out Kailee in the fifth

LONG SHOT Sizzle Factor in the second

CONFIDENCE RATINGS

*educated guess

**things to like

***plenty to like

****confident choice

1 Purse $21,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $12,500

***COVINGTON has shown good early speed in three consecutive in-the-money finishes. He is taking a slight drop in class and may have needed his last after vacation time. ZAPPER DAN raced wide when finishing just one position behind the top selection, and the beaten post-time favorite can make amends. SWITCHBACK CREEK made a mild rally after trouble at the break in a 6-furlong return to the races and he is bred to run this far.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

6 Covington;Gazader;Moquett;5-2

4 Zapper Dan;St Julien;McBride;3-1

9 Switchback Creek;Quinonez;Witt;8-1

2 Magic Eraser;Contreras;Brennan;5-1

8 Qaunico;Bedford;Cannon;15-1

11 Whatabout Lil Man;Wethey;Hornsby;15-1

3 Arkrebel;Vazquez;Cates;12-1

1 Fort Given;Meche;Irwin;12-1

12 Arkyarch;Thompson;Martin;8-1

10 What's in the Box;Morales;Smith;20-1

5 Cornstalker;Canchari;Martin;30-1

7 Bandit Point;Laviolette;Cline;30-1

2 Purse $23,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up which have never won three races, claiming $12,500

**SIZZLE FACTOR has contested the pace before fading in two races at the meeting. She is taking a significant drop in price, and she may be able to open a clear early lead and not look back. STAY SPICY has been a fast-closing second in back-to-back races, and she earned the field's fastest last-race Beyer figure. DARION'S DREAM cleared her non-winners-of-two condition just two races back, and she is well spotted after catching a much stronger field Feb.16.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

7 Sizzle Factor;De La Cruz;Milligan;8-1

8 Stay Spicy;Canchari;Williamson;2-1

3 Darion's Dream;Vazquez;Villafranco;7-2

5 Bee Boppin Baby;Felix;Swearingen;6-1

4 Lookforasmile;Eramia;Domenosky;8-1

9 Minnie Ruth;Birzer;Chleborad;8-1

6 Chloe Raven;Cabrera;Hartman;5-1

2 Blueberry Shine;Sanjur;Contreras;20-1

1 Cinema Doll;Contreras;Brennan;20-1

3 Purse $23,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up which have never won two races, Arkansas-bred, Claiming $16,000.

**BAY'S COMMANDER raced wide through the turn when beaten 3 lengths in a more talented allowance field. He is dropping into a restricted conditioned-claimer and he likely wins if able to reproduce the performance. UNCE GOYLE was pressured through honest fractions before tiring in the slop in his return from an extended break. His blinkers are removed and he will appreciate a fast track. SHOE MONEY has not raced since July, but he broke his maiden as a first-time starter last winter at Oaklawn.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

4 Bay's Commander;Wethey;Cline;5-2

5 Uncle Goyle;Thompson;Morse;10-1

9 Shoe Money;Court;Fires;8-1

1 Alithia;De La Cruz;Cox;3-1

8 Rick's Stryker;Cohen;Diodoro;7-2

11 Mostly Sunny;Vazquez;Altamirano;15-1

12 Divine Counsil;Eramia;McKellar;15-1

2 Dareandaprayer;Wales;Martin;20-1

6 Edgy;Contreras;Roberts;15-1

3 The Checotah Kid;Goncalves;Riecken;20-1

10 Maximilian;McMahon;Ashauer;20-1

7 Goingtogive'emhale;Bedford;Hale;30-1

4 Purse $20,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $8,000

**DOUBLE OURS was taken back before circling the field on the turn and powering to victory in a sharp return from vacation, and the four-time winner at Oaklawn has landed in a field with plenty of early speed. NOBADEER is moving up one level after a decisive wire-to-wire victory, and he was claimed by a sharp claiming stable. SPUR easily defeated $16,000 conditioned-claimers in his first race over the track, and he is a repeat candidate if he is capable of rating and out-finishing rivals.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

9 Double Ours;Loveberry;Diodoro;5-1

5 Nobadeer;Morales;Broberg;5-2

3 Spur;Cohen;Diodoro;2-1

7 Oh Oz;De La Cruz;Cristel;10-1

8 Obvious One;Prescott;Caldwell;10-1

4 Chocolate Wildcat;Gazader;Caldwell;12-1

2 My Curby;Felix;Swearingen;20-1

6 Stay Home;McMahon;Kordenbrock;15-1

10 Champagne Tony;Sanjur;Haran;20-1

1 Wildcat Shoals;St Julien;Chleborad;20-1

5 Purse $34,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $20,000

***FAR OUT KAILEE broke poorly and raced wide when forced to rally behind a slow pace in a deceptively good sprint tune-up. Furthermore, he is back at his best distance, and he was scratched last Friday likely due to a sloppy track. MORE ON TAP is adding blinkers after a one-paced effort. He is at the level of his most recent winning effort, and he switches to the stable's go-to rider. ROMA ROAD has excellent two-turn speed and the four-time winner at Oaklawn will appreciate moving from a muddy to a fast racing surface.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

10 Far Out Kailee;Prescott;Matthews;12-1

11 More On Tap;Santana;Asmussen;6-1

4 Roma Road;Eramia;Broberg;4-1

9 Imperatore;Cabrera;Hartman;5-1

8 Toasting Master;Thompson;Mason;7-2

7 Carouse;Meche;Asmussen;6-1

6 Charming Deputy;Morales;Haran;20-1

1 Aztec Lion;Vazquez;Ortiz;10-1

5 Allidoisdreamofyou;Sanjur;Garcia;8-1

12 Glitnir;Court;Hiles;20-1

3 Big Exchange;De La Cruz;Puhl;30-1

2 Boxer Boy;Canchari;Anderson;30-1

6 Purse $20,000, 1 1/16 miles, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $8,000

**SHABOXXO has earned competitive Beyer figures while winning two of his last four at Delta Downs, and he ran good races last season at Ellis and Lone Star, as well. TRANSFORMATIVE finished a close second at this claiming price just two races back. He is dropping in class following a fourth-place finish and is one who will appreciate finally getting on a fast surface. PRIMARILY GOLD raced well at a higher level last season at Louisiana Downs, and he has early speed and winning connections.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

10 Shaboxxo;Cabrera;Caldwell;6-1

5 Transformative;Canchari;Broberg;4-1

9 Primarily Gold;Felix;Mason;5-1

4 Royal Lion;Cohen;Diodoro;6-1

6 Naughty Moon;Eramia;Cates;5-1

2 Mojo Street;Gazader;Matthews;12-1

12 Dontsaymyname;Bedford;Ives;15-1

11 Oh My Gravy;St Julien;Von Hemel;10-1

7 Dowlingfourtyeight;Sanjur;Shorter;12-1

3 Northeast Bound;McMahon;Vance;10-1

8 Ms. D's Last Storm;Goncalves;Altamirano;20-1

1 Oliver's Bull;Thompson;Ashauer;20-1

7 Purse $43,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $40,000

***ABBAA stalked a fast pace before quickly drawing clear to defeat $30,000 claimers, and the horse-for-course has the class to move up one level and repeat. BAYERD has not raced since last summer at Saratoga, but he is working smartly and is certainly good enough if he is fit enough. RICHIE THE BULL has recorded five consecutive in-the-money finishes, while earning Beyer figures that make him a contender.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

4 Abbaa;Cabrera;Ortiz;9-5

2 Bayerd;Santana;Asmussen;4-1

8 Richie the Bull;Wethey;Young;6-1

3 Black Bear;Contreras;Hartman;9-2

1 Constantino;Cohen;McKnight;5-1

6 Knights Key;Eramia;Moquett;10-1

5 Choir Director;Vazquez;Villafranco;12-1

7 Conquest Wildcat;McMahon;Morse;15-1

8 Purse $34,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, starter allowance

**AWESOME DAY set a contested pace in a clear second-place finish in her 2018 debut. She figures to move forward with a race over the track and does not have to be on the early lead to run her best race. ALMAFUERTE crossed the wire only one position behind the top selection, and she has only raced twice and has a license to improve. WHITE GOLD led every jump but the last few in a photo finish loss, and she was claimed by a winning stable and should avoid trouble from her outside post.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

3 Awesome Day;Court;Morse;7-2

6 Almafuerte;Cabrera;Hartman;9-2

9 White Gold;Thompson;Vance;5-1

1 Baby Spencer;De La Cruz;Cox;3-1

7 Fairy Hill;Santana;McKnight;6-1

8 Katabatic;Vazquez;Young;10-1

5 Moolamiss;Contreras;Hiles;8-1

2 Cuddle Kitten;Canchari;Morse;12-1

4 Orbelina;Sanjur;Cristel;20-1

9 Purse $40,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds, maiden claiming $50,000

****RAVENS REFLECTION set a fast pace in an encouraging fourth-place debut, and he may be able to open an uncontested lead and lead these past every pole. STROLLING finished second in his career debut last fall at Keeneland, and he is back sprinting after two useful front-running route races. GREELEY CAN WIN has been overmatched in recent maiden-allowance races, but he finished second at Churchill when running at this same classification.

PP HORSE;JOCKEY;TRAINER;ODDS

6 Ravens Reflection;Felix;Swearingen;9-2

10 Strolling;Birzer;Gowan;15-1

7 Greeley Can Win;Morales;Thomas;7-2

9 Bravo Dixie;Laviolette;Campbell;4-1

5 Into Wynning;Santana;Asmussen;6-1

2 Gi Gi's Wildcat;Cabrera;Stuart;8-1

1 Calusa County;Quinonez;Von Hemel;5-1

3 Song of the Nile;Cohen;Lukas;8-1

4 Willie Ever Live;Goncalves;Martin;20-1

8 Baysider;St Julien;Anderson;15-1

EXOTIC POSSIBILITIES

The early double is playable with Zapper Dan and Covington as likely winners of the first race. The second race has a possible upsetter in Sizzle Factor, but two others deserve a long look. The fifth race drew a full field and has an overlay in Far Out Kailee. I'll put her on top of several in the place and show spots on a trifecta ticket.

Sports on 03/02/2018

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