The 90th Academy Awards zoom into our lives Sunday night.
It will be hard to top the confusion of last year’s dramatic envelope goof when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway announced the wrong best picture winner. (Goodbye, “La La Land.” Hello, “Moonlight”!)
Jimmy Kimmel returns as host. He will somehow need to juggle the monumental outrage of the #MeToo movement, and the scads of sexual misconduct headlines rocking the film industry, with the usual awards show banter.
It could be a night of records.
— At 22, Timothee Chalamet could be the youngest best actor winner ever (for “Call Me By Your Name”).
— At 88, Christopher Plummer could become the oldest winner in any acting category for “All the Money in the World.” (He would be breaking his own record, having won for “Beginners” when he was 82.)
— Jordan Peele (“Get Out”) could become the first African-American to win best director.
— Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”) could become the first woman to win for best cinematography. Morrison, also the cinematographer for the hottest film on the planet, “Black Panther,” is already the first woman ever nominated in that category.
Presenters include Chadwick Boseman, Gal Gadot, Sandra Bullock, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Emily Blunt, Dave Chappelle, Margot Robbie, Emma Stone, Lupita Nyong’o, Matthew McConaughey and Eva Marie Saint (an Oscar winner for “On the Waterfront” in 1955).
The first Academy Awards—before sound, before color, before digital 4K—were presented at a little soiree in the Blossom Room of the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel on May 16, 1929. The 25th Oscars, on March 19, 1953, were the first to be televised.
Who will walk away with gold Sunday night?
Best Supporting Actress
— Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
— Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
— Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
— Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
— Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Blige delivered the most fully realized performance as Florence Jackson, “Mudbound”’s rock-solid matriarch fighting poverty and racism in 1940s Mississippi. She gets bonus points for also co-writing and singing Mighty River, which is up for Best Original Song.
Metcalf, as the underappreciated mom in “Lady Bird,” and Spencer, as the friend/co-conspirator to Sally Hawkins’ love-struck janitor in “The Shape of Water,” were both strong, as was Manville as the icy sister of Daniel Day-Lewis in “Phantom Thread.”
Should win: Janney’s hard-as-pavement, mean-as-venom, scene-stealing LaVona Golden, the mother-from-hell of Tonya Harding in “I, Tonya,” was dastardly and, at times, completely comedic. I keep waiting for the real Golden to sue the filmmakers for such an unflattering portrayal.
Will win: Janney.
Best Supporting Actor
— Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
— Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
— Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
— Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
— Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Plummer earns extra kudos for hastily filling in for scandal-ridden Kevin Spacey to play billionaire J. Paul Getty during re-shoots of “All the Money in the World.”
Harrelson and Rockwell, as the good cop/awful cop in “Three Billboards,” could cancel each other out to an extent. Jenkins is Mr. Reliable (like J.K. Simmons, he’s seemingly in every movie). Dafoe is a wonderful actor, but “The Florida Project” is the most indie of indie films and likely the least seen of this group.
Should win: I have to admit that I am thinking “career achievement” when it comes to Rockwell. He’s super gifted (“Confessions of a Dangerous Mind,” “Moon,” “Choke,” “Seven Psychopaths”) but has thus far missed out on the awards parade. He was terrific as Dixon, the angry, racist, dim-witted cop in “Three Billboards.” Then again, Harrelson was equally impressive as the police chief.
Will win: Rockwell.
Best Actress
— Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
— Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
— Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
— Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
— Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Hawkins plays a mute janitor who falls in love with an Amphibian Man being held at a super-secret government facility during the Cold War.
In past years, that kind of role, and film, would have been enough to push Hawkins across the finish line.
But this was also the year that the statuesque Robbie convinced us she was trashy white trash, and an excellent skater; that the intensely no-nonsense McDormand played an intensely no-nonsense grieving mother; that Streep—the most nominated performer in history—struck a mighty blow for feminism and freedom of the press (and elegant dinner parties).
Ronan (Saoirse rhymes with inertia) could have won two years ago for “Brooklyn,” but was bested by Brie Larson in “Room.” Ronan will take home an Oscar some day. Just not Sunday.
Should win: I loved “I, Tonya” and Robbie’s performance, but I’m giving the edge to Hawkins, who conveyed so much with so little and acted (except for one fantasy moment) without a spec of spoken dialogue.
Will win: McDormand. She’s already collected every prize in the entertainment universe and her performance is fantastically fierce. And fearless. And funny.
Best Actor
— Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
— Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
— Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
— Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
— Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Chalamet was terrific as the young teenager discovering his sexuality in “Call Me by Your Name” (and he also played the too-cool-for-school boyfriend in “Lady Bird”). Kaluuya was equally outstanding as the duped boyfriend in “Get Out,” but this is more of a welcome-to-the-party nod for the two young dudes.
Day-Lewis has already won this award three times, for “My Left Foot,” “There Will Be Blood” and “Lincoln.” Washington was completely convincing as a schlumpy-nerdy-borderline savant in “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” The nine-time nominee won best actor previously for “Training Day,” and picked up a supporting prize for “Glory.” And he would pick up another statue Sunday night, if not for … Gary Oldman’s Churchill.
Should win: Oldman. He’s played Dracula, Sid Vicious and Lee Harvey Oswald, but transforming into Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour,” under all of that makeup and prosthetics, is a career-topping role. Notably, his Churchill was not all bluster and oratory; it was layered with indecision, confusion and desperation.
Will win: Oldman. A truly memorable performance. And Academy voters adore actors willing to endure oodles of makeup and prosthetics.
Best Picture
— “Call Me by Your Name”
— “Darkest Hour”
— “Dunkirk”
— “Get Out”
— “Lady Bird”
— “Phantom Thread”
— “The Post”
— “The Shape of Water”
— “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Guillermo del Toro’s fantasy-love story “The Shape of Water” leads all films with 13 nominations, and it has already snagged several pre-Oscar awards. The World War II dramas—the epic “Dunkirk” and the towering character study that is “Darkest Hour”—are the kinds of films that would have been Best Picture locks in years past. (Think 20th century.)
“Call Me By Your Name” is a sweet coming-of-age love story, while “Phantom Thread” is a not-so-sweet, really weird love story. Both feature strong performances but lack overall dramatic impact.
“Lady Bird”’s quirky teen angst and daughter-mother issues are compelling but not especially unique. “The Post” is a crusading film about weighty topics and has characters you can root for, but it received only one other nomination (for Meryl Streep’s performance as Kay Graham).
Should win: “Get Out.” Writer-director Jordan Peele’s first dramatic feature, about a white girl (Allison Williams) and what her odd family have planned for her new African-American boyfriend (Daniel Kaluuya), is haunting, tense, disturbing and hurls daggers at insidious suburban racism.
Will win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Most prognosticators are going with “The Shape of Water,” but my crystal ball—or is it an 8-Ball? — tells me that Oscar voters will side with the dark, dramatic (and comedic) shock waves of Three Billboards, about a grieving mother who demands action by an inept police force after her daughter is horribly raped and murdered. Bonus points: superb performances by Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell.
Best Director
But how can “Three Billboards” win if it’s not even up for best director?
With nine best picture nominees and only five best director slots, some directors got shut out, including “Three Billboards”’ Martin McDonagh, Steven Spielberg (“The Post”), Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”) and Luca Guadagnino (“Call me By Your Name”).
Does that mean we automatically toss out those films?
No.
“Argo” took best picture in 2013, despite no nomination for its director (Ben Affleck), and on several occasions the Academy has been split on the picture/director front, as it was last year when “Moonlight” took the top prize, while best director went to Damien Chazelle for “La La Land.” In 2016, Alejandro Iñárritu won for directing “The Revenant,” but best picture went to “Spotlight.” The nominees:
— Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”
— Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
— Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
— Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
— Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
With the exception of Anderson, this is the first directing nod for the rest of this talented group. Gerwig is only the fifth woman ever nominated in this category.
Hard to believe this is Nolan’s first directing nomination. All he does is make great movies (“The Dark Knight,” “Inception,” “The Prestige”). Del Toro has picked up several prizes already, including from the Directors Guild of America, often a precursor of the Oscar winner. He is also nominated in the original screenplay category, along with Peele and Gerwig.
Should win: Peele. Silly me. I feel best director and picture should go hand in hand.
Will win: Peele. Can he pull off the rookie upset? Nolan will have to settle for greatest-director-to-never-win status, while del Toro could woo fans by offering online seminars explaining “Pan’s Labyrinth.”
———
