The broadcast news outlet interviewed an expert who said the financial panic of 2008 is officially over. Which might come as a surprise to those of us who thought it was over years ago. But once the top-of-the-hour radio guy says something, it's mainstream. And official.
But if radio guy hadn't told us, it's probable we'd all know by now anyway. For the economic news has been not just good lately, but exciting:
Last month, the unemployment rate fell to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent nationally. Which means the nation might be doing as well as Arkansas has been doing lately. In April, the unemployment rate for black folks broke all records--until the next month. In May, that rate was 5.9 percent. The unemployment rate for Hispanic folks broke records in the spring, too.
Those who study these things say that an unemployment rate below 5 percent is actually "full employment" since a number that low can be explained by folks moving, switching jobs or just getting out of college. So 3.8 percent means if you want a job, you can find one.
All this good news on the jobs front means that employees can demand more, and they are. The papers said last week that the average hourly rate increased 2.7 percent this year. On Friday, when all this good news was announced, Treasury yields went up and the Fed started talking about rate hikes, so this full-speed economy doesn't become a runaway freight. And the long-term economic trend is even better. Steady job growth and low taxes should boost spending by We the People, helping to move this country from rebound to slam-dunk in the coming years.
So why ruin it all?
Many presidents take too much of the blame when the economy goes sour (Carter, Bush the First), and many presidents take too much of the credit when the economy is humming right along (Clinton). But the current occupant of the Oval Office actually deserves much of the credit this time. His (and his party's) tax cuts are doing what tax cuts do.
On the very day all this great economic news was making headlines, another headline appeared in Arkansas' Newspaper:
U.S. goes ahead with tariffs
Why?
The administration says it's going to impose tariffs on metals imported by some of this nation's closest allies. The announcement said this country will impose a 25-percent tariff on steel and a 10-percent tariff on aluminum. Which will be applied against imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
Officials in those countries responded immediately, warning of retaliation--not only on metals, but other things that will hit the heartland where it hurts. That is, in our wallets. Our allies say they're now looking at tariffs on clothing, cheese and meats. Meats, such as the kind Arkansas produces.
All this on top of a possible trade war with a nation that's not an ally but an important trading partner: Red China. Which has threatened to retaliate in its own way--by marking up soybeans it imports from Arkansas, to name just one of its own tariffs.
The Trump administration tells the press that it's working via a 1960s law that allows the United States to impose tariffs to protect national security. And argues that imports are weakening the nation's industrial base.
Which doesn't explain full employment, wages rising, economic records falling each month . . . .
According to a memo from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's top official, these American tariffs could threaten nearly 2.6 million jobs. Bottom line: A trade war doesn't make sense. Not now. Not ever.
The president's people should take President Trump aside and explain the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, a protectionist piece of bad legislation that raised tariffs on all sorts of American goods. After America's trading partners retaliated, the Great Depression got greater. And longer.
And if they don't want to question the president directly, they could at least show him some comments from a conservative member of his own party, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who said this on Friday: "Europe, Canada and Mexico are not China, and you don't treat allies the same way you treat opponents. We've been down this road before--blanket protectionism is a big part of why America had a Great Depression. Make America Great Again shouldn't mean Make America 1929 Again."
We're reminded of a populist politician, back in 2016, campaigning for president by defending tariffs, pooh-poohing free trade agreements and promising to turn back time to an era when the nation's economy was based on blue-collar workers in highly paid union jobs of the industrial past. But his name was Bernie Sanders.
We didn't need a Bernie Sanders economy in 2016. And we don't need one in 2018.
When it comes to tariffs, Mr. President, let's not.
Editorial on 06/04/2018