Arkansas Democrats are headed for either a modest beginning of a long recovery or a swan song. Which is not clear yet.
What happens will depend as much upon Democrats' reaction to upcoming election results in November as the results themselves.
The fury of the early anti-Trump "resistance" has successfully been converted into action. I admit to being impressed at both the number and the quality of the Democratic candidates entering legislative races in my area. Besides their backgrounds, they also tend to be younger than Clinton-era holdovers but old enough to know what they are getting into.
I have seen such optimism before. I saw some in 2016. I saw a lot more in 2014. Democrats also offered excellent candidates then, though not as many. The party rank and file had enthusiasm and new blood. They expected the upcoming candidacy of Hillary Clinton for president to bring back glory days. They were crushed.
Nowadays I see charts and graphs and lists of how Democrats in Arkansas can win. Smart people can build a good, detailed argument around any assumption. So always check the assumption. The assumption in this case is that President Donald Trump will be as big a factor in our state House races in 2018 as Hillary Clinton was supposed to be in 2014. The president's popularity in Arkansas is not what it used to be, his critics point out. From this, they calculate that a big number of Arkansas legislative seats are competitive. They even say which ones.
That is quite a leap. I find the more convincing argument to be this: If Trump's election proves anything, it is that a very large number of people will vote for anything with an "R" beside its name. To lose a Senate seat in Alabama, for instance, the GOP had to run Roy Moore. Last time I checked, Moore had not announced for anything in Arkansas.
I have seen a lot of special elections in a lot of states won by Democrats. Those races have something in common: tiny turnouts.
Believing glitter is gold encourages false confidence. False confidence usually leads to dashed hopes. At worst, it could lead to discouragement when -- and if -- real, important but modest gains are made.
Trump came in third in the Benton County Republican primary in 2016. The same thing happened in Washington County. So note: He actually did far worse in the traditional base of the Republican Party than he did in the rest of the state among the recent converts. But then Trump won the nomination and Republicans did what Republicans do. They fell into line. The fact so many people held their noses and voted for this Philistine for president is a blazingly lit sign of how far those voters are willing to go rather than vote for a Democrat.
I was wrong about Trump's chances of winning the election, but my bias was not liberal. It was pro-decency. After the "grab 'em" audio, I believed there was a bottom. I will never make that mistake again.
Look upon any crowd of Northwest Arkansas Republicans. You will see a bunch of Ted Cruz supporters. There will be some who supported Marco Rubio, though that was more out of his perceived electability than enthusiasm. A lot from all camps would have supported home-state boy Mike Huckabee if he had ever gained any traction. And yes, some true Trump supporters will stand among them, but that will never change. I would be surprised if any of them ever flip.
It continues to amaze me how opposition to abortion overrules every other consideration even when it is the only thing left. Last time I checked, there were nine other commandments besides the one anti-abortionists cite. Those others cover topics such as lying, stealing, covetousness and adultery. I am old enough to remember the good old days -- 2002 -- when having had an affair could get a candidate beaten in an Arkansas election. Now the president's lawyer can pay $130,000 in hush money to a porn actress and no one bats an eye. Hearts have hardened. Lines are drawn.
The 2018 elections are not about Democratic Party resurgence. The 2018 elections are about Democratic Party survival. If they cannot make gains -- even modest ones -- in this environment, they are in more trouble than even I believe them to be. They should be glad for any gains they get. They will also have to fight for them.
Commentary on 02/17/2018