OPINION

The president as a poker player

I used to play a little poker.

Enough to know that if I sat at a table long enough with the right people I'd eventually have all their money. (And if I sat long enough with the wrong people they'd have mine.) I played enough to understand that poker isn't bingo; while there's an element of luck involved, over time class begins to show.

Given enough time, probability is inevitable as gravity. While all the old poker pros like to talk about psychology and reading their opponents--and that does come into play, you see people whose faces can't help but reflect the value of their hands or who will become more aggressive after they've suffered a disappointing hand (or after they've drawn to an inside straight)--but mostly it's a numbers game. If you can keep track of the cards you've seen and roughly work out odds in your head, you're way ahead of most players.

But you're still a long way from good.

I don't know whether our president has ever played much poker; I think it's unlikely given he knows how casinos work (once you figure in the house's rake, poker's a lousy bet) and his general impatience. But he's someone I'd hate to play against. What we might otherwise see as liabilities would work to his advantage at the poker table, at least in the short run.

Because Trump's erratic style would make him what's called a "loose-aggressive" player, someone who rarely (in Trump's case, never) folds and bets bigly even when he has lousy hands. Since you cannot know what is in your opponent's hand, the rational player must consider the possibility the LAP has good cards. Because bad players get good cards just as often as good players.

So if you're a rational player, holding a decent hand--a pair of sevens and a pair of fours, say--you're naturally going to hesitate when the LAP across the table from you pushes all his chips in. Sure, it's probably a bluff--POTUS has a tendency to bluff--but what if this time he's actually got three jacks? The prudent play is to fold and let him rake off your ante.

You might think someone ought to stand up to the bully, that someone should see his every bluff, but that's not going to happen because of the nature of poker, a Randian game where it's foolish to do anything except pursue one's own selfish interest. Nobody is going to police the table for the common good--the table isn't going to indemnify your chips.

So the LAP ends up winning a lot of small pots through mere bluster. He understands he doesn't have to have a real hand. He just has to pretend to have a good hand and the more prudent souls at the table--the snowflakes and the cucks--will just let him steal pot after pot.

It's not because none of them have the guts to call his bluff; it's because they are rational actors who understand that what you're buying with your ante and with every bet and raise is a little more information about everyone you're playing against. If you play long enough--and you know how to watch--you learn how your opponents typically behave. Play long enough and you might even be able to predict how your opponents will behave. You might be able to chip away at the uncertainty, tip the odds ever so slightly in your favor.

Someone who plays poker the way I imagine I do is easier to read than the LAP. I know enough to introduce some randomness into my game, to the point that I might chase after a pot I know is lost just to show the other players that I will raise off a king-high hand. But I generally raise when I'm pretty sure I've got you beat, and I generally fold when I'm pretty sure you've got me beat. I don't hold out for miracle draws or bet aggressively. When I'm confident, I'm usually content to see your action.

I'm no genius. I generally play my cards. And the absolute last thing I want to happen at the poker table if for you to start thinking I'm a better poker player than you. (I'm just having a lucky run, boss.)

But the LAP is all over the place; blustering, engaging in obnoxious table talk, laughing and shouting "Yesss!!!" Marv Albert-style as he rakes in his winnings. And, since he pursues good hands as vigorously as he pursues marginal and bad ones, maybe he wins a couple of big pots too. Depending on the table, maybe he gets under the skins of a couple of players, and takes them out of their games. A LAP can be a disrupter.

While nobody who knows much about the game would consider the LAP a good poker player, he can be a winning player. For a while. Eventually class tells.

Trump loses frequently. But he's always had a big enough bankroll to survive. Plenty of authorities will tell you that he ought to be a lot further ahead than he in fact is, but a lot of Trump's fans appreciate his style. It was good enough to beat all those conservative-playing Republicans in the primaries. Maybe he got a little luck in November; Hillary Clinton thought her hand was unbeatable until those last couple of cards turned up.

Trump has had a run. But I think Robert Mueller's holding a royal flush.

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www.blooddirtangels.com

Editorial on 09/24/2017

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